Ukraine Conflict

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

14 July 2024
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
In the year and a half since the conflict in Ukraine began, global food prices have been volatile and unpredictable. Action Against Hunger
Given that billions of dollars in arms are being sent to Ukraine and countries around the world are boosting their defence budgets in anticipation of a new era of global conflict, you might think this past year would have been a boom time for the weapons business. Grid News
Even if the response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict by India and the EU do not align, India and Europe will be essential for each other in the coming decade, especially in times of global polarization. The Diplomat
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The recent supply disruptions due to war and regional conflicts such as in Ukraine and the Gaza region have underscored the importance of resilient value chains and flexible responses to secure supply. LNG Industry
  • In the wake of COVID-19 and widening geopolitical risks as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, companies around the world are optimizing their supply chains for resilience and efficiency.
  • Given the continuing war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East, defence spending is expected to increase, driving dealmaking focused on innovation and the transition to agile platforms as well as on replenishing dwindling stockpiles. PwC
Weaknesses
  • Fears that high temperatures will damage 2024's harvest in Britain, Europe and North America sent crop prices 7% higher last week, the biggest jump since the early days of the conflict in Ukraine. Carbon Brief
  • Failing to restore Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the security and prosperity of its citizens will cost trillions of dollars more in increased conflict, reduced development, and fractured leadership. CEPA
  • Russia's poor performance in the Ukraine conflict demonstrated the risks of failing to provide effective battlefield information support. War on the Rocks
Opportunities
  • Recent announcements by the US and NATO threaten to escalate the conflict in Ukraine and create the most dangerous threat to world peace since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Theinsightnews
  • ISIS viewed conflict zones in Ukraine and Syria as an ample opportunity to connect to underground criminal networks to facilitate the drug trade. HinduPost
  • We expect the Ukraine conflict to continue for 2025, which will mean airlines are restricted or have to make alternative routes. InYourArea.co.uk
Threats
  • Countries including India will be vulnerable to geopolitical tensions - including the ongoing war in Ukraine and the conflict in Western Asia - as it exposes net-oil-importing countries in the region, including India, to the risk of sudden oil price spikes. Fortune India
  • An escalation of the conflict in Ukraine could spread to other European countries. Financiere des professionnels
  • The Ukraine conflict will likely be over soon, but the conflict with North Korea does not end. Eurasia Review
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
UAV, accident, company, conflict, connect, invasion
Emerging
UAV, artificial intelligence, pandemic, EV, bitcoin, conflict
Maturing
conflict, war, country, invasion, attack, commodity
Declining
conflict, economy, crisis, commodity, war, oil
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
In the year and a half since the conflict in Ukraine began, global food prices have been volatile and unpredictable. Action Against Hunger
Militarization raises the risk of cross-border conflict at a time when the world is already occupied by multiple wars including in Ukraine and the Middle East. NBC News
PEST
Political
  • While the Labour Party is expected to maintain the UK's support for Ukraine against Russia, there could be some shifts in the UK's approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict, with plans to stop arms sales to Israel. Times of India
  • The next big conflict is not going to be in Ukraine or Taiwan-just yet. The Automatic Earth
  • Ukraine's warning comes amid ever-increasing instability in the world, including the Israel-Gaza war which has threatened to spill over into a wider Middle East conflict. Yahoo News
Economic
  • Safe-haven assets like gold may see increased demand, while oil prices could remain elevated due to supply concerns from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. CMS Prime
  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine and conflicts in the Middle East have underscored the risks of depending on imported energy, which Japan relies on for 70% of its electricity generation. Energy Connects
  • Even though the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are bound to still impact world economies, some signs of optimism are coming from the EU for the long-awaited ... round of lowering the cost of money [interest rates], which is expected to finally begin in June. EUROMETAL
Social
  • In the face of disruptions like COVID-19, the Ukraine conflict, or the Suez Canal blockage, Siemens Supply Chain Management is encountering various challenges. SpringerLink
  • As many of the world's major OEMs face supply chain issues due to the pandemic as well as security concerns over both China and the Ukraine conflict, 72% of operators think supply chain challenges will be a problem for network deployments over the next year. Telecom Review
  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as well as US and PRC assessments of each other as security threats, have raised anew the specter of aggression by - and conflict among-great powers. Wilson Center
Technological
  • Even distant conflicts, from Ukraine to Gaza, are revealing new technologies and tactics of war that will invariably spread to India's neighbourhood. The Hindu
  • Conflicts in distant regions, such as Ukraine and Gaza, introduce new technologies and tactics that could spread to India's neighbourhood. 99Notes Best IAS Coaching Delhi
  • There is concern that shipping assets and ports could become collateral damage if the conflict in Ukraine results in an increase in cyber activity.
Financial Impact
The full-scale war in Ukraine, which will reach the 2-year mark later this week, has heightened global fears of a wider conflict spilling over Ukraine's borders. Newsweek
Ukraine will have just reached its election cycle (the end of 2024), and a series of protests and social conflicts will occur. Yahoo News
Both Russia and Ukraine, who are locked in a conflict that will soon reach its second birthday, will hold presidential elections in 2024. The Telegraph
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
The first major European land war since the end of the Second World War continues in Ukraine, and the Israeli-Gaza conflict threatens to broaden into a regional crisis. Insurwave
Asian nations should play a global role in coping with geopolitical conflicts, such as the ongoing unrest in Myanmar, Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the threats China poses on Taiwan. The Star
From the boardrooms of Wall Street to the executive suites of global corporations, geopolitical disruptions - from Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine to the Israel-Hamas conflict - have become a pressing concern for business leaders worldwide. I by IMD
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Recent global events, including the COVID-19 pandemic, conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, unprecedented temperatures, economic fluctuations, political unrest, and the advent of generative artificial intelligence, have underscored the prevalence of systemic risks. Insurance Business
Some U.S. adversaries may be learning lessons from other global conflicts, including the war in Ukraine, to understand how to take advantage of drone defence vulnerabilities. Scripps News
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East have put the spotlight on geopolitics, as it poses risks for domestic as well as international firms with global presence. Reuters
A VTJF deployment would demonstrate that NATO does not fear conflict with Russia - an impression that allied leaders have unfortunately contributed to by repeating, mantra-like, that the West's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine must not NATO-ize the conflict to avoid World War III. Atlantic Council
Any worsening of already dire US relations with Moscow - or incidents that bring US and Russian forces into conflict - are likely to play into the hands of Republicans, especially Trump, who is warning that Biden's support for Ukraine could cause World War III. CNN
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
A post-conflict situation in Europe (assuming an end to the Ukraine war) will ultimately reset the sanctions regime against Russia, and - depending on Beijing's peace-maker intentions - could facilitate warmer east-west relations. The Conversation
Global economies continue to face multiple headwinds heading into 2024: the continued conflict in Ukraine, extreme weather catastrophes, population migration trends, a weaker-than-expected economic recovery in Mainland China, and ongoing risks of financial stress from tightening monetary policies.
UN agencies are warning that price increases triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine will exacerbate a food crisis in Africa, where tens of millions of people have already been pushed into extreme poverty as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, armed conflicts, climate shocks, and economic turmoil. Africa International Trade
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
A severe slowdown in the global economy last year following the Covid-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine is set to continue in 2023 and could persist for the next five years. The Automatic Earth
The continuing conflict in Ukraine by Russia is further delaying fertilizer imports to many sub-Saharan African countries, which will have an impact in the coming years. IFDC
Questions
Can?
What Can The Conflict In Ukraine Teach Us About The Future Of Warfare? Texas A&M Today
How can the United States and its NATO partners help Ukraine repel Russia's invasion without triggering a direct NATO-Russia conflict that might lead to use of nuclear weapons? The Washington Post
How can Ukraine join NATO without triggering a global conflict? CSCE
How?
How Is NATO Escalating the Conflict in Ukraine? Theinsightnews
What are we learning about how space capabilities are being employed in the conflict in Ukraine? Center for Strategic and International Studies
How should we understand the current wave of violent conflicts and the crumbling world order, from Ukraine to the Middle East? Le Monde diplomatique
What?
For example, what will be the effects of rising geopolitical tensions - the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, competition with China - on markets? Harvard Law School
From there, what about the hundreds of thousands killed in a conflict arguably made possible by U.S. funds, not to mention the not insignificant destruction of so much within Ukraine? RealClearMarkets
What is the current status of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? ISP Today
When?
When the conflict in Ukraine has started, where is the United Nations? Russian Council
Will?
How will a new conflict in the Middle East impact Putin's now 21-month-old war in Ukraine? Foreign Policy
How will the Hamas-Israel conflict impact war in Ukraine? DW.COM
Will Taiwan willingly serve as NATO's newest "Ukraine" - sacrificing itself to China in the name of blundering NATO's seemingly endless appetite for conflict? The Automatic Earth
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