Ukraine Conflict

These slides have been automatically curated by Shaping Tomorrow’s AI-driven horizon scanning robot named Athena.

Here she describes her philosophy:

“I’m apolitical, so I report forecasts from different viewpoints however distasteful that might be to our own values. However, my algorithm does not allow me to show fake or hate news. But I can show you highlighted rumors or controversies that may turn out to come true.

Wearing rose-colored glasses is not my purpose - reporting potential futures is.

Just like humans, I can be fallible. Please recognize that you and your colleagues are biased too. But whereas you tire, make mistakes and may only spot what interests you, I do not. I might miss or misinterpret like you may do, but with far less frequency and I'll take uncomfortable truths and alternative ideas in my stride.

I want to do my best for you. And, as with any research, you should check and triangulate my findings for yourself.

You can use the contradictory, and uncertain forecasts in this set of slides to imagine different scenarios. The future is unpredictable, but you can examine the possibilities and choose your preferable future from the choices presented.

Developing your response: This story is to help those looking to create major breakthroughs through radical transformation rather than incremental improvement. It provides advanced ideation thinking frames for looking at ‘What’s over the horizon" through different lenses. 360-degree thinking is about learning from the past to gain a better understanding of the present, so as to make better decisions for the future. It is about thinking in a way that allows you to see the big picture, while also paying careful attention to the little fine details stemming from every situation you face.

Each slide gives you a perspective on change and together they show potential strong opportunities for change or risk. The more you carefully consider the better the likelihood of your having an all-round view of the possibilities for change. The less you complete the more the likelihood of shallow thinking and poor decision-making.

Here are ways to consider possible emerging change:

• Conventional litanies: Look for and list key events, issues and trends that are not connected and appear discontinuous to the trend or issue you are researching. The result often expresses either a feeling of helplessness (what can I do?) or apathy (nothing can be done!) or projected action (why don't they do something about it?).
• Social causes: Look for and list statements invoking actors and their structural relationships, such as, “If only government would manage water better there would be no shortages.” These statements tend to suggest incremental policy changes as the solution to problems.
• Structural issues: Look for and list grand, “big picture” statements that challenge assumptions on the previous two levels, such as, “We need a Left-Green water system, not a market system!”
• Emotional experiences: Look for and list deep stories, the collective archetypes, the unconscious, of often emotive, dimensions of the problem or the paradox (seeing population as non-statistical, as community, or seeing people as creative resources.
• Future dichotomies: Look for and list contrasting "opposites, e.g. beliefs, values, assumptions.
• Future paradoxes: Look for and list illogical or contradictory beliefs, that may point to an underlying truth. "Less is more" is an example of a paradox.
• Individual meaning: Look for and list ‘what are our assumptions? What interests do we represent? What might we have overlooked?
• Shared meaning: Look for and list - What unquestioned civilizational ‘givens’ are involved? How are they observed? What effects do these deeply embedded drivers have? Are these effects acceptable? If not, how can they be moderated or changed? How are they ‘coded’, legitimized, applied in various contexts? What frameworks of theory and practice do they depend on?
• Capability and behavior: Look for and list the physical and behavioral aspects of human beings encompassing biology, health, reproduction, physical well-being, and illness as well as behavior oriented psychology.
• Physical world: Now list - What is happening ‘out there’ that is of interest to us/our organization? What are the key drivers? What are the more subtle counter forces that may signal new phenomena, new issues, directions, and opportunities?
• Unintended consequences: Look for and list potential unintended consequences through actions of people—and especially of government — that are unanticipated or "unintended."
• Wildcards: Look for and list events which are highly unlikely but would have a huge impact if it did occur.
• Possible inflections: Look for and list potential moments of future dramatic change, especially in the development of a company, industry, or market
• Plausible changes: Look for and list - How might our homes & families change? How might our work change? How might our hobbies & leisure differ? How might we travel & communicate? How might childhood & education differ? How might our environment change? How might government & economy differ?
• Potential solutions: Now reformulate stories/and images from the previous thinking frames, going up the layers to recast the issue/problem at the highest level from the most coherent perspective you can conceive. Ask yourself how your reformulation might look if you had unlimited space, or time or cost or a combination of these.
• Preferable futures: Now formulate - What sort of action is needed to bring about your preferable future?

Enjoy!

SOURCES: here I list the most popular sources I found on this topic. I search these future sources daily on the web and social media
Key people (experts and pundits)
38,903 citations (estimated 100,000 plus experts contributing to these citations)

Authors
23,298 citations (estimated 50000 authors contributing to these citations)

Key organizations
View 11,691 citations

Countries
View 201 citations

Cities (top 650 in 2050)
View 590 citations

Subtopics 
View 4,378 citations (exc embedded synonyms)

WORLD OUTLOOK: Now, let’s look at these first:

Driving forces highlights changing, or not yet widely recognized forces that will impact and transform our world in the future. The bulleted list in the center shows individual, detailed driving forces. I have also provided a key takeaway under the slide title from the presented driving forces on this, and subsequent slides that you can use to speed read this presentation.

I have also developed a radar of the important, interdependent topics associated with these driving forces and a cloud representation of who, and what is in the current news, on the right.

The radar chart is a plot of the most frequently cited topics from the latest five thousand forecasts, plotted according to average intensity.

And, the cloud depicts the top organizations influencing public opinion. The size of the words relates to the frequency of occurrence.

You can find more driving forces at shapingtomorrow.com.

I only present a summary of the highest ranked forecasts here

STRENGTHS: Strengths describe the current capacity of something to withstand great force or pressure

WEAKNESSES: Weaknesses describe current disadvantages or faults

OPPORTUNITIES: Opportunities describe a time or set of circumstances that makes it possible to do something

THREATS: Threats list the possibilities of harm or loss to people and nature

INFLUENCERS: On this slide, you can quickly see my analysis of the most mentioned topics, countries, organizations and actors, and click through to the content mentioning them at shapingtomorrow.com

S-CURVE: In future management terms, an s-curve is a mathematical graph that depicts relevant cumulative data for a topic — plotted against time. ... An s-curve in future management is typically used to track the progress of a topic.

SENTIMENT: The sentiment chart shows the number of positive, neutral or negative forecasts recorded in the database by topic. Much like a balance scale or see-saw, it is a quick way to know if overall sentiment tips to the left or right or is balanced in the middle. The bigger the stars the more future impact they are likely to have

PEST is an acronym for Political, Economic, Social and Technological. This analysis is used to assess these four external factors in relation to your business situation. Basically, a PEST analysis helps you determine how these factors will affect the performance and activities of your business in the long-term

SCENARIOS are a postulated sequence or development of events that help us consider possible alternative futures and our best responses

WARNINGS: Forewarned is forearmed! A simple message but one that’s at the heart of strategic foresight. If we can see what may happen we can plan for its possible arrival and not be spooked by sudden changes in the future. Warnings are something that makes you understand there is a possible danger or problem, especially one in the future and to prepare in good time.

SOLUTIONS: I’m not yet cognitive and don’t provide my own wisdom or solutions to the issues you are facing. However, I can help you to quickly see what others are doing to solve similar issues or issues that need solving. Do look at these with an eye to taking ideas and actions from other industries, people and organizations to bring to your sector, home or career. This is a great way to be creative and innovative ahead of others.

I only present a summary of the highest ranked solutions here. You can find more solutions on this topic at shapingtomorrow.com

EXTREMES: describes ideas or happenings from edge of something and its furthest end or edge

WHAT’S NEXT?: suggests the next items to deal with.

QUESTIONS: I have gathered over ten thousand verbatim questions from the web and social media and present just three big questions here for you to consider.