Ukraine Conflict
A Future Prognosis
Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow
10 June 2023
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Given that billions of dollars in arms are being sent to Ukraine and countries around the world are boosting their defence budgets in anticipation of a new era of global conflict, you might think this past year would have been a boom time for the weapons business.
Grid News
Even if the response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict by India and the EU do not align, India and Europe will be essential for each other in the coming decade, especially in times of global polarization.
The Diplomat
Russia and Ukraine controlled 30% of global wheat exports in 2021 and the ongoing conflict could keep global prices unstable until 2024.
The New Arab
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
- Continued supply chain disruptions resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine reinforce the need to bolster the resilience of traditional markets so that access to safe, nutritious food is maintained even in the face of shocks and stressors such as Covid, conflict, and climate change. Home
- Although Russia's alliance with Tehran has strengthened since the start of the Ukraine conflict, Russian and Iranian leaders have conflicting ideas about the postwar administration of Syria, and Russia has tacitly allowed Israel to carry out airstrikes against perceived Iranian threats inside Syria. Washington Post
- Cross-border attacks against Russian territory reinforce the narrative that Putin is defending his people from a foreign threat, rather than waging a war of aggression in Ukraine - and could give him the excuse he needs to escalate the conflict into Russia's new great patriotic war. The Telegraph
Weaknesses
- In the defence sector, evolving global threats such as the conflict in Ukraine have increased pressure to hasten defence acquisitions. Bain
- The existing potential will allow Russia to remain a major military power for the foreseeable future, but the crisis in its relations with the West and the conflict in Ukraine will make things very difficult in the long-term sense. Russian Council
- In the long run, China poses a greater danger to world peace and rules-based order than Russia, which is being weakened by the current conflict in Ukraine. Voice of America (VOA News)
Opportunities
- Nokia noted a large number of insecure IoT devices were being used to cause end-user disruption to services, citing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and a growing increase in profit-driven hacking collectives operated by cybercriminals as potential reasons. Mobile World Live
- As part of the Road to Peace initiative, a peace mission by leaders of a number of African countries to Moscow and Kiev to find solutions to the conflict in Ukraine will take place by the end of June. TxT Report
- The economic impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Putin's Conflict in Ukraine poses a threat to US-Africa trade and investment, US-Africa strategic alliances, and gains made over the last two decades using the benefits of AGOA. Modern Diplomacy
Threats
- With the war in Ukraine still going on and the threat of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, it is not hard to see additional unplanned defence spending in our future. Creators
- The sanctions levied on Russia for its unprovoked military aggression in Ukraine have reminded Chinese leaders of the direct costs associated with dollar use and the risks it could entail in case of a future conflict over the possible annexation of Taiwan. Inter-American Dialogue
- 2023 could be the most challenging year of the last decade due to the Ukraine conflict, possible strikes, rising numbers of aircraft and the reopening of Asian markets. Reuters
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
PEST
Political
- America's president, Joe Biden, has declared two broad objectives: to ensure both that Ukraine is not defeated and that NATO does not get drawn into direct conflict with Russia with the attendant risk of nuclear escalation. The Economist
- Russia considers NATO's eastward expansion to be a threat to its national security, and has cited Ukraine's aspirations to join the US-led bloc as one of the reasons for the current conflict. The Automatic Earth
- The existing potential will allow Russia to remain a major military power for the foreseeable future, but the crisis in its relations with the West and the conflict in Ukraine will make things very difficult in the long-term sense. Russian Council
Economic
- Continued supply chain disruptions resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine reinforce the need to bolster the resilience of traditional markets so that access to safe, nutritious food is maintained even in the face of shocks and stressors such as Covid, conflict, and climate change. Home
- The lack of serious oversight will be exacerbated by the push to rapidly expand production to deal with supplying Ukraine and stockpiling systems relevant to a potential conflict with China. the weekly ledger
- The long shadow of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a further sharp tightening of global credit conditions remain key downside risks for EMs. S&P Global Platts
Social
- Uncertainty and business disruption caused by Brexit and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic have been exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine. Financier Worldwide
- Globally, the number of undernourished people, which was around 817 million in 2021, could increase by 7.6-13.1 million people in 2022-2023 due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Arxiv
- The rising food prices, resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors, including the recent conflict in Ukraine, risk of putting healthy diets out of reach of even more people, on top of the current 964.8 million people in Africa who cannot afford an adequate diet. Arxiv
Technological
- In recent years, major geopolitical events like the Russian re-invasion of Ukraine have taught global leaders important lessons about potential future conflicts, the importance of cybersecurity and the vulnerabilities adversaries can exploit. GovCon Wire
- Impact of geopolitics on the cybersecurity threat landscape o The conflict between Russia-Ukraine reshaped the threat landscape during the reporting period. European Network and Information Security Agency
- New lures in social engineering threats are focusing on the Ukraine-Russia conflict in a similar manner to what happened during the COVID situation o Malware is on the rise again after the decrease that was noticed and linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. European Network and Information Security Agency
The conflict in Ukraine could knock $1 trillion off the value of the world economy and add 3% to global inflation in 2022 by triggering another supply chain crisis.
The Times Of India
Assuming no direct military involvement in the conflict in Ukraine but a gradual ramping up of the defense effort, additional military spending in the EU could easily reach €20 billion in 2022 and twice as much in 2023.
PIIE
Assuming no direct military involvement in the conflict in Ukraine but a gradual ramping up of the defence effort, additional military spending in the EU could easily reach €20 billion in 2022 and twice as much in 2023.
Bruegel
Interlocking environmental disasters, a global pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and the potential for nuclear conflict are happening within entrenched and often entrenching structures of militarism, exploitation and inequality.
University of Leeds
A portion of weapons pouring into Ukraine are ending up in many conflict zones throughout the world which will have repercussions for a lot of civilians for decades to come.
Analyst News
Interlocking environmental disasters, a global pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the potential for nuclear conflict are happening within entrenched and often entrenching structures of militarisation, exploitation and inequality.
Eventbrite
The 2020s have been defined by disruption on an unprecedented scale as the impact of the global pandemic, the Ukraine conflict and the resulting energy crisis took hold.
FastMarkets
Russia's war in Ukraine has raised geopolitical tensions in the Arctic, as it has globally, creating new risks of unintended conflict and hindering cooperation.
U.S. Government
Soaring energy costs and fears of famine in parts of the world show how the biggest conflict in Europe since World War Two, now in its sixth month and with no resolution in sight, is having an impact far from Ukraine.
Reuters
Key topics
Conflict, weather extremes, economic shocks, the lingering impacts of Covid-19, and the ripple effects from the war in Ukraine will push millions of people across the world into poverty and hunger.
The National
Although Zelensky insists that Ukraine will never give in, many Western countries are clearly tired of providing long-term assistance to Ukraine and are also worry about forcing Russia into a corner, causing a nuclear conflict to erupt and ultimately harming themselves.
David Cowhig's Translation Blog
Soaring energy prices triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict could push up to 141 million more people around the globe into extreme poverty, a study has found.
investing.com
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