2030

A Future Prognosis

Matt Richardson

2 February 2023
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
RSS Feeds
Twitter Searches
Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
The regulatory approval is not only a coup for Upside and Schulze, but also a huge win for the entire upstart industry, working to produce meat outside of an animal, which McKinsey estimates will be a $25 billion global business by 2030. DNyuz
French food giant Danone said Tuesday it would slash planet-warming methane emissions by 30% by 2030, vowing to change the way the 1/4 cows it uses are raised and milked. Phys Org
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) pathway to a net-zero global energy sector by 2050 includes a 25% reduction in coking coal use by 2030 and a reduction of at least 83% by 2050. Edie
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • Africa needs to join the world in buying insurance in the form of protecting 30% of its waters by 2030; and supporting the effort of the World Trade Organization to remove and/or redirect harmful subsidies. Brookings Institute
  • The U.S., Canada, Australia, and the EU have continued planning a phaseout of gasoline-powered cars and addressing methane from agriculture, while Brazilian and EU pledges to protect forests are making progress to end deforestation by 2030. Grist
  • On the biodiversity front, countries reached a major breakthrough to protect 30% of the planet by 2030. ConservationInternational
Weaknesses
  • Battery longevity is crucial to the environment as 74 million metric tons of electronic waste are expected to end up in landfills globally by 2030. Cool Hunting
  • With EV ownership increasing, the global EV revolution could create more than 11 million tonnes of battery waste annually by 2030, enough to fill Wembley Stadium almost 20 times every year. Edie
  • With EV ownership increasing, the global EV revolution could create more than 11 million tons of battery waste annually by 2030. transportandenergy
Opportunities
  • In New Momentum, oil and gas imports to India, China and the EU fell by more than 10% by 2035. EcoWatch
  • Demand for Australian Carbon Credit Units will continue to be high, but there is an increased risk in a cumulative shortfall to 2030. FS Sustainability
  • Distribution grids will need investment of € 375-425 bn out to 2030, while UK regulator Ofgem has already approved £40bn in grid investment for 2021-26. Edison Group
Threats
  • The REPowerEU strategy, released in 2021 in the wake of the war in Ukraine, proposes importing 10 million tons of green hydrogen from reliable suppliers by 2030. Environment+Energy Leader
  • The Energy Security Strategy increased the UK's hydrogen production ambition to 10 GW by 2030. H2 View
  • Due to escalating climate and nature risk, food and agriculture companies could lose up to 26% of their value by 2030, with permanent sector-wide losses equivalent to the 2008 financial crash.
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
autonomous, airplane, Mars, computer, hydrogen, augmented reality
Emerging
EV, battery, artificial intelligence, car, 5G, hydrogen
Maturing
carbon, emission, country, demand, clean, electricity
Declining
emission, coal, carbon, CO2, country, car
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
The regulatory approval is not only a coup for Upside and Schulze, but also a huge win for the entire upstart industry, working to produce meat outside of an animal, which McKinsey estimates will be a $25 billion global business by 2030. DNyuz
With methane emissions emerging as one of the top priorities in solving the climate crisis, governments from across the world have committed to reductions of at least 30% by 2030. SG Voice
PEST
Political
  • The Japanese, United Kingdom, and Italian governments jointly announced the development starting in 2023, the production of the fighter jet around 2030, and the first aircraft operational by 2035. Defence Connect
  • By 2030, the European Union hopes that every sector covered by its emissions trading system will be subject to the border adjustment. CSIS
  • In Wyoming, a group of Republican legislators have pushed to ban EVs by 2035. CoMotion NEWS
Economic
  • The Charlotte City Council wants to source energy from an Iredell County solar farm to power city buildings with a goal of all of them being carbon-free by 2030. WSOC TV
  • By constructing the Wildflower Solar plant near Toyota's Mississippi facility, the automotive manufacturer is significantly reducing its emissions output and taking another giant leap towards achieving carbon neutrality in its operations by 2035. CleanTechnica
  • The NSW government has announced a new target of reducing emissions by 70% by 2035. The Sydney Morning Herald
Social
  • By 2030, China's urban population will be more than 1 billion. Wiley
  • As The Boston Foundation noted in its most recent housing report card, Greater Boston will need more than 180,000 new housing units by 2030 to alleviate both crises. Wbur
  • On the biodiversity front, countries reached a major breakthrough to protect 30% of the planet by 2030. ConservationInternational
Technological
  • Nasa, which successfully tested its new-era Artemis spacecraft last year as a springboard back to the moon and on to Mars, has hopes of landing humans on the red planet some time in the 2030s as part of its Moon to Mars program. The Guardian
  • The U.S. and its partners establishing a secure battery materials and technology supply chain by 2030. Datamyne
  • The unit for Blow - launched with the mission of commercialising floating wind technology with a levelised cost of energy of €87 MWh by 2028, and under € 50/MWh by 2030 - will be built by GSP, a Romanian shipyard in Constanta, and installed in some 35 metres of water. Recharge | Latest renewable energy news
Financial Impact
The world could reach debt levels of maybe $3 quadrillion by 2030. Algora Blog
The size of the Greater Bay Area economy is equivalent to the 12th largest economy in the world and aggregate GDP is estimated to reach $4.6 trillion by 2030. AsianInvestor
Deloitte Analysis Metaverse's impact on GDP across Asia could reach US$ 1.4 trillion a year by 2035 if sustained investments are made. archyde
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By the end of 2030, there will be about 29.42 billion connected IoT devices around the world. IncrediTools
Kenya has joined the rest of the world in committing to address food and nutrition insecurity to end hunger by 2030. The Star
Airbus, one of the two largest aircraft manufacturers in the world, previously announced plans to use hydrogen fuel in developing the first zero-emission commercial aircraft by 2035. New Scientist
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Overconsumption and e-waste threaten life on Earth, with estimates suggesting we will need two planets' resources by 2030. EC Electronics
Earlier in 2023, S&P Global signalled that the world could face a historic copper deficit by 2035, and the World Economic Forum warned of lithium shortages in just three years' time. Atlantic Council
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The U.S. should adopt a national goal of driving down lifecycle methane emissions from domestically-produced gas to less than 0.3% of overall gas volume by 2030, from about 1.7% in recent years, so that U.S. gas has demonstrably the lowest methane emissions in the world. Progressive Policy Institute
Up to 20 million manufacturing jobs around the world could be replaced by robots by 2030, while about 1.7 million manufacturing jobs have already been lost to robots since 2000, including 400,000 in Europe, 260,000 in the US, and 550,000 in China. News18
Danone aligns with the Global Methane Pledge and targets 30% reduction in methane emissions from fresh milk by 2030. World food company - Danone
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
By 2030, the majority of the world's extreme poor, which includes a large proportion of displaced people, will live in fragile and conflict affected states - so job creation in fragile settings has the significant potential to address poverty. World Bank Blogs
The Belt and Road cooperation will lift 7.6 million people out of extreme poverty and 32 million people out of moderate poverty around the world by 2030. IOL
By 2030, up to two-thirds of the global extreme poor may be living in fragile and conflict-affected situations. OpenGlobalRights
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The world faces a 40% water deficit by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario and ESG Clarity points to evidence that asset managers may - for the first time - have specific asks on reporting and behaviours of companies when it comes to water management. FTI Strategic Communications
Samsung's signal to divest from coal comes amid global movement to cancel all new coal power projects and end coal generation in advanced economies by 2030 to avoid climate catastrophe. Insure Our Future Global
Questions
Can?
Can the world 'halt and reverse' biodiversity loss by 2030? Carbon Brief
Can we really achieve 'zero climate disasters' by 2030? Euronews.com
How high can Bitcoin price go by the end of 2030? Boys & Girls Clubs of Senegal
How?
How will people living in Malta be making money in 2030, 2040, and 2050? Manuel Delia
How will SDVs develop by 2030? Yahoo
How can methane be reduced by 10% by 2030 with pastoral agriculture still thriving? Farmers Weekly
Who?
With global healthcare worker shortages estimated by WHO to hit 18 million by 2030, how much longer can the NHS's international recruitment safety net exist? Health Service Journal
Who gained from global growth last decade - and who will benefit by 2030? McKinsey & Company
If 50% of the Big Three's cars are electric in 2030, who do they think is going to buy the other 50%? Charged EVs
What?
What will gold price be in 2030? BTCC
What skills are needed for a future workplace where one billion jobs will be transformed by technology by 2030? Forbes
Wat is the global offshore wind energy market status in 2022, and what will be its size in 2030? TMC NEWS
When?
What then is Nigeria's Zero Hunger policy and what strategies do we intend to create a Nigeria free of hunger in 2030 or at least in 2060 when Nigeria will be a hundred years as a sovereign country? Vanguard News
What then is Nigeria's Zero Hunger policy and what strategies do we intend to create a Nigeria free of hunger in 2030 or at least in 2060 when Nigeria will be hundred years as a sovereign country? THISDAY LIVE
What then is Nigeria's Zero Hunger policy and what strategies do we intend to create a country free of hunger in 2030 or at least in 2060 when Nigeria will be 100 years as a sovereign country? Healthwise
Will?
Will an AI be able to reliably construct bug-free code of more than 10,000 lines before 2030? Mind the Post
Will we achieve a circular economy by 2030? The Fifth Estate
What will Wi-Fi be in 2030? IEEE Global Communications Conference
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