A Future Prognosis

Matt Richardson

3 October 2023
This set of automatically curated slides provides an instant overview about possible futures to help inform present day strategy, and for you to act on opportunities and risks and mitigate threats in a timely manner. Learn more.

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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Pakistan remains steadfast in its dedication to addressing the challenge of hepatitis and achieving the World Health Organization's global elimination targets by 2030. ARY NEWS
Global Citizen urges all Amazonian governments to join with President Lula in committing to end illegal deforestation by 2030. PR Newswire
By 2030, global temperatures will decrease by approximately 0.53 degrees Celsius, representing a 36% reduction. MDPI
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • In the Net Zero Scenario, a strong push on material efficiency strategies result in aluminium demand growing at a considerably slower rate to 2030 compared to the past decade, despite increases in some demand segments related to low emission technology deployment. IEA
  • Sabah's targets for environmental protection and resource management can be considered ambitious - for example, it aims to protect and conserve 30% of its land area by 2025, while the global target is by 2030 and the national target is 20%. The Edge Malaysia
  • The IoD, a London-based association of company leaders, is calling for a chained-volume target of £900bn of exports in 2019 prices by 2030 and 15% of all businesses exporting either goods or services by 2030, equivalent to an additional 90,000 firms. Global Trade Review (GTR)
  • Uzbekistan has committed to achieving SDG-12 by pledging to cut waste generation by 50% before 2030. Modern Diplomacy
  • Under the EU's CO2 standards for cars and vans, carmakers are obliged to significantly reduce average emissions of newly sold cars by 2030, meaning that they need to boost the uptake of electric cars or otherwise face severe penalties. www.euractiv.com
  • The IoD contends that the target of £1 tn in exports at current prices will be met naturally by 2030 due to expected inflation. Global Trade Review (GTR)
  • The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) estimates annual adaptation investment needs for EMDEs equal to $160 billion to $340 billion by 2030 and $315 billion to $565 billion by 2050. Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University S
  • Another IADB study estimates investment needs of $61 billion to $62 billion per year to decarbonize LAC's power sector so that the share of renewables increases from 60% to 70-80 percent by 2030. Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University S
  • In a net-zero scenario, demand for oil and gas is set to decline by around 20% by 2030. / Ukraine PortNews
  • We are on track to reduce multidimensional poverty by at least half, much ahead of 2030. / India Daily Pioneer
  • Ghana's commitment to the VPA, as well as halting and reversing forest loss and land degradation by 2030 remain absolute. Ghana News Agency
  • If current trends continue, 575 million people will still be living in extreme poverty in 2030, 128.5 million children will still suffer from stunting - developmental issues that result from chronic undernutrition - and 84 million children and young people will still be out of school. NPR

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

autonomous, airplane, Mars, computer, hydrogen, market
EV, battery, artificial intelligence, car, hydrogen, 5G
carbon, emission, country, demand, clean, electricity
emission, coal, carbon, CO2, country, car
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Pakistan remains steadfast in its dedication to addressing the challenge of hepatitis and achieving the World Health Organization's global elimination targets by 2030. ARY NEWS
GHGs emissions by 2030 will have to be nearly 25% and 55% less than 2017 levels for the world to have the chance of limiting global temperature between 2 and 1.5 degrees Celsius individually. MDPI
  • Sabah's targets for environmental protection and resource management can be considered ambitious - for example, it aims to protect and conserve 30% of its land area by 2025, while the global target is by 2030 and the national target is 20%. The Edge Malaysia
  • Regulators globally are tightening emissions standards: in Europe, starting in 2030, regulators will require manufacturers to cut CO 2 emissions for new on-highway trucks by 30% compared with 2019 levels. McKinsey & Company
  • The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation will increase net federal spending by $1.3 billion from 2021 through 2030. Healthcare Dive
  • The Biden Administration set a goal of having 50% of new car sales by 2030 be EVs. / USA Forbes
  • Rail capacity is likely to be stretched to breaking-point by the early 2030s. The Economist
  • Uzbekistan has committed to achieving SDG-12 by pledging to cut waste generation by 50% before 2030. Modern Diplomacy
  • Virtual events have blossomed and will grow by 21.4% by 2030. CEN
  • Romania has initiated the process of protecting 10% of its terrestrial and marine natural habitats, in line with the objective set in the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. Romania Insider
  • As part of the Saudi Vision 2030, water reuse and treatment rates need to be increased. phys.org
  • As part of the 2023 78th General Assembly of the United Nations, IBM announced it will train, for free, 2 million learners in artificial intelligence worldwide within the next three years, building on its existing commitment to skill 30 million learners by 2030. Campus Technology
  • CRAFT is an important stepping stone to working nuclear fusion as it will be used to test key technologies for the Chinese Fusion Engineering Test Reactor, a proposed tokamak device for large-scale power generation expected to be completed around 2035. South China Morning Post
  • While 12 million people will move into a different field of work by 2030, generative AI is likely to enhance roles across STEM, creative, business, and legal professionals instead of eliminating a significant number of jobs outright. Insider
Financial Impact
The world could reach debt levels of maybe $3 quadrillion by 2030. Algora Blog
In a best-case scenario, multi-earning income globally could reach $1.4 trillion by 2030, with more than 20% coming from generative AI. Insider
A high-quality DEFA is expected to double the value of the ASEAN digital economy, from $1 trillion to $2 trillion, by 2030. The Diplomat
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
According to a report from Bankless Times Artificial intelligence could displace 800 million jobs (30% of the global workforce) by 2030. National Preparedness Commission
The world should be eradicated from hunger and poverty by 2030, and all people should have access to education, clean water, and reliable energy. DW.COM
Collaborating globally, HD KSOE and partners like Woodside Energy and Linde Engineering are exploring new hydrogen transportation and storage solutions, aiming to commercialize their advancements by 2030. Marine Insight
Changing proportion of published forecasts
By 2030, up to two thirds of the world's extreme poor could live in settings characterized by fragility, conflict and violence threatening efforts to end extreme poverty. SlideShare
Automation and AI could displace up to 800 million jobs globally by 2030. B2B News Network
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Extreme heat and flooding are set to deal a massive blow to the global fashion industry, with four of the world's top garment producing countries at risk of missing out on $65 billion in earnings by 2030. CNN
The multi-year strategy of the UN Global Compact is to drive business awareness and action in support of achieving the SDGs by 2030. United Nations
In 2016, the Saudi Arabian government outlined a plan for PIF to become the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world through a strategy called Vision 2030, with a goal of managing $2 trillion in assets by that year. Homeland Security Research
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
By 2030, 342.4 million women and girls - an estimated 8% of the world's female population - will live in extreme poverty and close to one in four will experience moderate or severe food insecurity. Sri Lanka Guardian
The Middle East is a place where threats that will menace the world in the 2030s may play out early, including nuclear proliferation, extreme weather and even greater inequality, as weak countries fall further behind. The Economist
574 million people, 7% of the global population, will still be living in extreme poverty by 2030. World Bank Live
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The UN Water Conference comes at the midway point of the UN Water Action Decade, a global effort to head off a looming water crisis that could see a 40% shortfall in global freshwater supplies by 2030. MercoPress
In late 2021 nearly 140 world leaders gathering at the United Nations climate talks in Glasgow pledged to end forest loss and land degradation by 2030. International Consortium of Investigative Journalists
How can progress on tackling ending poverty, economic growth, and the challenges of climate change be best brought together, in the context of Agenda 2030 (including building resilience, adaptation, and sustainable growth)? GOV.UK
Can the UK meet its 2030 CCUS target? Wood McKenzie
How can we reduce the risks of what may turn out to be wrong choices by building a logical bridge from 2035 to 2050? Public Policy Forum
How can countries in the Global South better use and mobilize their domestic resources to accelerate progress towards the goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development? UNU WIDER
How sharply should gas demand fall in the 2030s? UKERC
How will climate change agendas evolve by 2030? FoodNavigator-USA.com
Which supplier has an edge in new product development and who will be the Automotive Radar Sensors leader in 2030? Mobility Foresights
Who will lead and who will follow in the autonomous vehicle race by 2030? Research and Markets
Who Will Own EV Charging in 2030? Car and Driver
What will autonomy and artificial intelligence look like in 2030? Transport Times
What will taxation look like in 2030? ITR
Will industries like agriculture, manufacturing and public safety fully embrace autonomy by 2030, and what will cities of the future look like when they do? Hexagon AB
What happens when the Big Ten's broadcast contract expires in 2030? The Mercury News
What's the purpose of four or five-lane thoroughfares in an epoch when new gas-and-diesel burners will, if the EU parliament has its way, be banned by 2035 anyway? CNN
What then is Nigeria's Zero Hunger policy and what strategies do we intend to create a Nigeria free of hunger in 2030 or at least in 2060 when Nigeria will be a hundred years as a sovereign country? Vanguard News
At the current rate of progress, will 2030 bring a better life and a better world? Plan International
Which key factors will influence micro system-on-module market growth over 2023-2030? InvestorsObserver
Will we get the SDGs by 2030? DAWN.COM
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