Space

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

10 August 2022
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
RSS Feeds
Twitter Searches
Web Searches
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
An integral part of NASA's plan to return astronauts to the moon this decade is the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will be humanity's first permanent outpost outside of low Earth orbit. IEEE Spectrum
The total cost of Nasa's lunar programme, Artemis, will have ballooned to $93 billion by 2025 - before it even gets its new rocket off the planet for a test flight. The Times
The Luna-25 lander, possibly launching in mid-2022, will mark Russia's first moon landing since 1976, when the Soviet-era Luna-24 lander collected lunar samples to return to Earth. The New York Times
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The KPLO is currently on a trajectory that will take it close to the L1 Lagrange point, a gravitationally stable location nearly 1.5 million kilometers from the Earth and four times farther than the moon. SpaceNews
  • Japanese researchers want to protect astronauts' health on the moon and Mars by building space habitats that spin to create artificial gravity - but pulling it off will be a huge, multi-generational undertaking. Freethink
  • The strength of its regolith polymer composite will support the lunar outpost's geometry to create a sustainable and long-lasting structure that could support long-term habitation and potentially future travel to other planets. 3D Printing Industry
Weaknesses
  • Planets around other stars are expected to have moons, just as planets in our solar system do, but gathering clear evidence of exomoons is a difficult business. Exoplanet Exploration: Planets Beyond our Solar System
  • Space resource mining on the Moon or asteroids, along with space-based solar power, represent long-term opportunities with potential to provide materials to construct space-based habitats and eventually to help address resource scarcity on Earth. World Economic Forum
  • The NOM4D program - short for Novel Orbital Moon Manufacturing, Materials, and Mass Efficient Design - will test materials science, manufacturing and design technologies that could be used off Earth someday. Space
Opportunities
  • Artemis 1 is a critical test flight that will launch an Orion spacecraft around the moon to test technologies NASA needs to support the return of astronauts to the lunar surface. Space
  • The Korean Aerospace Research Institute, South Korea's equivalent of NASA, will use Danuri's high-resolution camera to scout the lunar surface for potential sites for a robotic lander mission in 2031. Yahoo News
  • Commercial service is being pushed back to the second quarter of 2023, the latest setback for the debut of its space tourism business. CNBC
Threats
  • The fact that China and Russia are planning a rival International Lunar Research Station programm could complicate efforts to regulate mining in space. BSR
  • Moon's policies could fuel domestic tensions at a time when South Korea desperately needs bipartisan support to manage a cooling economy and to help Washington contain North Korean threats. The New York Times
  • Lunar surface installations could, for instance, make up for the loss of the giant Arecibo telescope in Puerto Rico (US) that recently collapsed after 57 years in service. ITU Hub
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, flight, lander
Emerging
3D, 4G, EV, artificial intelligence, crypto, moon
Maturing
moon, lunar, Mars, astronaut, commercial, company
Declining
company, moon, Mars, budget, coal, economy
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
While considering the types of species and ecosystems they know best, experts estimated that about 30% of species have been globally threatened or driven extinct since the year 1500. EcoWatch
The International Labour Organization estimates that by 2030, around 2% of work hours worldwide will be lost because it's too hot to work or workers will need to slow down. Politico
PEST
Political
  • Defense By Bryan Bender Proponents for a more muscular U.S. military say they fear China cannot be trusted to pursue only peaceful aims and could use its space program for both economic and military advantage, including a new partnership with Russia to build a moon base. Inferse.com
  • Canadian astronauts will soon need to be wary of committing crimes on the lunar surface. MobileSyrup
  • Russia and China plan to open their future lunar research station to all interested parties, but no Artemis country has expressed interest. Space War
Economic
  • Canoo will launch commercial production of its vehicles from its Arkansas factory in late 2022, and deliver on the NASA Artemis vehicle in 2023. Inhabitat
  • With Space Tourism peaking in interest this past year with billionaires such as Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, and Elon Musk all developing rockets to orbit space, the hotel industry will definitely have a future beyond the sky. Yahoo News
  • Once space tourism becomes mainstream, it will have a positive impact on many socio-economic processes on Earth: job creation, development of new energy infrastructure based on solar energy, etc. Emma Thorpe
Social
  • The Radio wave Observations at the Lunar Surface of the photo-Electron Sheath will land on the lunar nearside later in 2022. Forbes
  • In the UK watching from a high vantage point like a hill or tall building will be essential because of the Moon's very low position in the sky. BBC News
  • Given the urgency of Earth's biosystem crises, the moon offers opportunity for deployable infrastructure and extraction long before asteroid harvesting becomes practicable. Space
Technological
  • Planetary habitability is a measure of how much potential a planet or moon has to develop and maintain environments that are hospitable to life. www.eso.org
  • As NASA says, fundamental physics investigations will be made possible by virtue of extended views of the Earth, Sun, Moon, and space not possible from Earth's surface or from Earth orbit. Gizmodo
  • NASA, under its Artemis program, plans to send a crewed mission to orbit the moon in 2024 and make a crewed landing near the lunar south pole by 2025. / China NBC News
Financial Impact
Between lunar missions and commercial space stations, low-Earth economy and vital information-gathering about our planet, investments in the space industry could reach $1 trillion in the 2030s. World Economic Forum
By 2045, China seeks to become the dominant space power, and by mid-century, it aims to develop an Earth-Moon space economic zone potentially capable of generating $10 trillion in value per year. The National Interest
If the space economy could reach a trillion dollars by 2030 then, after demonstration of the economic feasibility of lunar industrial development, a $10 trillion space economy by 2040 would be within reach. The Space Review
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
An integral part of NASA's plan to return astronauts to the moon this decade is the Lunar Gateway, a space station that will be humanity's first permanent outpost outside of low Earth orbit. IEEE Spectrum
ESA's large-class science missions for the timeframe 2035-2050 will focus on moons of the giant Solar System planets, temperate exoplanets or the galactic ecosystem, and new physical probes of the early universe. phys.org
A NASA cubesat lunar mission lost contact with Earth a day after deployment, jeopardizing its plans to demonstrate the orbit that will be used for subsequent Artemis missions. End Grade Inflation
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
AN OUT-of-control rocket on course to crash into the Moon threatens to contaminate its surface with microbes from Earth, a scientist has warned. The Sun
Having fewer red blood cells in space is not a problem when your body is weightless, but when landing on earth and potentially on other planets or moons, anemia affecting your energy, endurance, and strength can threaten mission objectives. Media
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The burgeoning space tourism industry could soon fuel significant global warming while also depleting the protective ozone layer that is crucial for sustaining life on Earth, a new study concludes. Inside Climate News
While the process of electrolysis on Earth is well-understood, much less is known about how it might function in the lower-gravity environments of Mars, where the pull of gravity is one-third that of Earth, and the Moon, where it is just one-sixth. Metro.co.uk
Figuring out how to contain soft stools so they do not put other astronauts at risk - as well as how to deal with the dehydration and electrolyte imbalance that often come with extended periods of diarrhea - is considered a high priority before future lunar and near-Earth asteroid missions. Popular Science
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Tackling the challenge of building on the Moon will require the know-how of what's already been done in Earth's harshest environments - extreme cold, extreme dust, higher radioactivity - combined with new thinking and approaches. SpaceRef
Habitable planets and moons might be extremely rare - especially planets like Earth that have remained habitable for billions of years - but it's looking more and more like any planet or moon that can support life likely has the necessary chemicals on hand. Universe Today
For prospecting, exploring, and ultimately using the far side of the Moon, Lunar Pathfinder's communications relay service will provide a vital communications bridge between Earth and the lunar surface. E&T
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
NASA wants to experiment with a new orbit around the moon that it hopes to use in the coming years to once again land astronauts on the lunar surface. / New Zealand CP24
In the coming years, SpaceX will provide the Human Landing System (HLS) for the Artemis III mission - the first crewed mission to the Moon since the Apollo Era. Universe Today
Questions
Can?
Can Physics-Informed Neural Nets replace traditional methods in lunar mapping to support rover traverses and human operations at the lunar poles? SETI Institute
Can SpaceX be held liable for its space junk hitting the Moon? Forbes
The United States has always been equivocal about Moon's KPI, perceiving it as a kind of meddling between North Korea and the U.S., so what kind of reward can Biden offer Moon? The Diplomat
How?
How soon before the earth is ringed with orbital factories and humanity has planted itself permanently on the moon, Mars, and beyond? The Boston Globe
How important is space tourism? Around World journal
How will space itself be managed once many countries demonstrate their capability to build space stations and land on various other planets, moons, and asteroids in the solar system? Issues in Science and Technology
Who?
Or Who owns the moon? artnet News
Who will own the Moon's resources? Digital Journal
What?
What are the ethics of mining the Moon? Eos
What are the main challenges facing any mining operation on the moon, or in space? Mining Global
What will the future exploration of the Galilean moons look like if the MMAT is effective? Universe Today
When?
When will see Europeans on the Moon? SpaceWatch.Global
When can we expect space tourism to become commonplace? Phys Org
Why throw the ISS away, when it could be offered to the international private sector for use as a lunar-staging infrastructure? Tech Crunch
Will?
As the next World Radiocommunication Conference approaches, will radio astronomers get to keep their silent lunar environment despite projections of increased human activity on the Moon? ITU Hub
With enough money and enough will, could China beat the U.S. back to the moon? Time
Will increasing traffic to the Moon contaminate its precious ice? Europa
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