A Future Prognosis

22 January 2022
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
The Luna-25 lander, possibly launching in mid-2022, will mark Russia's first moon landing since 1976, when the Soviet-era Luna-24 lander collected lunar samples to return to Earth. The New York Times
By 2035, the digital transformation of space will be obvious in all countries of the world, including poor countries. Pew Research Center
There will be almost 42.000 coworking spaces around the world by the end of 2024. Take It Personel-ly
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • Simulating the harsh lunar environment on Earth was no easy task - the magnetic force needed is so strong that it could tear apart components like superconducting wires. Tasnim News Agency
  • Having fewer red blood cells in space is not a problem when your body is weightless, but when landing on earth and potentially on other planets or moons, anemia affecting your energy, endurance, and strength can threaten mission objectives. Media
  • Mylar gliders could explore small asteroids, but not planets or Moons (due to their stronger gravitational pull). Universe Today
  • Construction of the research station could start as soon as 2027 - years ahead of schedule - amid concerns over US-led moves to set the rules for future lunar activities. Tasnim News Agency
  • Some time pressure is involved, as SpaceX has been contracted by NASA to provide a lunar landing craft in the form of a Starship rocket for the upcoming Artemis missions to the Moon, with a human landing expected no earlier than 2025. Gizmodo
  • In spite of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has limited the flow of tourists from and into China, expectations are high, and more than 1 million passenger trips are expected approaching the Lunar New Year. The Diplomat
  • Beware, although the iron ore price has been rallying off its two-year low from November last year, Chinese demand will likely slow due to lunar new year, and the Beijing Olympics. Saxo
  • China was expected to release some stocks from its strategic stockpile around the Lunar New Year. Reuters
  • Paragon Space Development will continue to build the life support system for the Habitation and Logistics Outpost - the first crew module of NASA's Lunar Gateway space station - under a newly finalized contract worth more than $100 million with Northrop Grumman. ExecutiveBiz
  • As a parting gesture from Moon toward North Korea, the end of war declaration could largely prove to be harmless. 19FortyFive
  • China's government announced earlier in 2021 that it will collaborate with Russia on a lunar space station, which will directly rival NASA's lunar Gateway program. Metallicman
  • Moon's visit to Australia is expected to help South Korea secure key mining products, such as rare earth and lithium, amid the pandemic-related disruption of global supply chains. Yonhap News Agency

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Mars, moon, astronaut, lunar, lander, flight
3D, 4G, EV, moon, app, artificial intelligence
moon, lunar, Mars, astronaut, commercial, company
company, moon, Mars, budget, coal, economy
Past Year: More Negative
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
The Luna-25 lander, possibly launching in mid-2022, will mark Russia's first moon landing since 1976, when the Soviet-era Luna-24 lander collected lunar samples to return to Earth. The New York Times
By 2050 one in four people - or 2.5 billion people worldwide-will have some type of hearing loss. PSNI Global Alliance
  • In South Korea, despite the Moon government's openness to dialogue and collaboration, it is unlikely deadlocked relations will see any political breakthroughs. Institute for Security and Development Policy
  • As a parting gesture from Moon toward North Korea, the end of war declaration could largely prove to be harmless. 19FortyFive
  • From potential coordination of military space activities to burden sharing for lunar resource extraction, a closer Russia-China relationship could pose a significant challenge to American interests. Modern War Institute
  • China tends to stock up on crude ahead of the Lunar New Year, while it will likely switch to using both natural gas and diesel for power generation in an effort to reduce pollution from coal-fired plants ahead of the Winter Olympics.
  • We expect cracker margins to remain fairly weak through January as downstream demand, especially in China, will be muted with the Lunar New Year approaching. Yahoo Finance
  • The other dimension in the space race is the continuing jostling for supremacy by entities driven by billionaires on space tourism where commercialization of outer space activities will be a scenario worth considering in 2022. Sri Lanka Guardian
  • In 2022, the launch of Artemis 1-when NASA's giant Space Launch System will carry the Orion capsule to the Moon and back, in preparation for America's return with humans later this decade.
  • Taiwan, where wearing a face mask is near universal in major cities, has started to offer booster shots of the Moderna vaccine and is urging people get a third shot before an expected influx of people returning home for Lunar New Year at the end of January. Global News
  • SSTL is expected to draw on its history of supporting programs surrounding the construction of a lunar communications array, the monitoring of emissions and observing climate variables. Defence Connect
  • A first uncrewed maiden flight occurs in 2022, which is followed by a crewed lunar flyby in 2023. Future Timeline
  • 2022 could be the year that NASA conducts the first launch of its heavy-lift Space Launch System rocket, which is destined for Artemis moon missions. GeekWire
  • In 2015, NASA approved the Europa Clipper mission to search for signs of life on Jupiter's moon Europa, set for launch in 2024, following the detection of plumes erupting from its subsurface ocean in 2013. The New York Times
Financial Impact
The global space industry, currently valued at $350 billion, could rise to more than $1 trillion by 2040. The Diplomat
Investments in digital transformation and smart city deployments are steadily trending upward; Statista estimates that by 2025 the global investment in direct digital transformation will reach $6.8 trillion and by 2022 40% of cities will use digital space-planning tools. Forbes
By many projections, in 2040 the annual value of the space economy could surpass $1 trillion, with trillions more in global economic activity dependent on space. The Washington Post
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
North America's forecast recovery follows the general global travel consensus that domestic tourism will recover first (2022), but international arrivals will not recover until 2024. Hotel News Resource
NASA hopes to have the James Webb Space Telescope launched by the end of the year. / Chile ExtremeTech
The global economy could lose $4 trillion due to the direct impact of COVID-19 on tourism and its ripple effect on other sectors closely linked to it in 2020 and 2021. Ventures Africa
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Having fewer red blood cells in space is not a problem when your body is weightless, but when landing on earth and potentially on other planets or moons, anemia affecting your energy, endurance, and strength can threaten mission objectives. Media
By creating a new field of dangerous space debris in low Earth orbit, the Russian test poses a threat to civilian and military satellites as well as other orbital structures, such as the International Space Station (ISS). Foreign Policy
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Within Space Wales we have a group that is developing a concept to make Wales the world's first sustainable space nation by 2040, leading the way to a greener space.
Looking out to 2030, NATO and the EU should be animated by a shared vision of transatlantic unity in the face of global threats, even as they provide space for continued political pluralism and commercial competition within their own ranks. NATO
With the recent uptick in new infections around the world proving a major setback in efforts to reanimate the ailing tourism sector, millions of people are fearing for their livelihood, especially in regions heavily dependent on the influx of international tourists. Statista
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Thanks to NASA and space agencies in Europe and Canada, the world has a brilliant new space telescope that will allow humanity to see far further back into the depths of galactic time than ever before. Ars Technica
American satellites far outside the Earth's orbit are facing a near-constant barrage of threats from Russian and Chinese technology, and it's only getting worse, a top Space Force officer is warning. MSN
Why NASA is inventing curious AI for deep space - Space probes will be the first to explore the furthest reaches of our solar system and beyond. The Daily Galaxy
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
While companies in a range of sectors, from automotive and digital to insurance, are already moving into the AV space, the key current global trend is legislative uncertainty, which will most likely continue to be an issue in the coming years. t FTI Consulting
Fear of infection may depress the desire to travel, even in the absence of restrictions, weighing on tourism revenues in the coming years. Centre For Economics And Business Research
The United States has always been equivocal about Moon's KPI, perceiving it as a kind of meddling between North Korea and the U.S., so what kind of reward can Biden offer Moon? The Diplomat
Can lunar soil be used as a material to 3D print with? TechLila
What role can space tourism play in climate change? The New York Times
How important is space tourism? Around World journal
How will space itself be managed once many countries demonstrate their capability to build space stations and land on various other planets, moons, and asteroids in the solar system? Issues in Science and Technology
With increasing distance and the open-ended contexts of everyday life and work on the Moon and Mars, how will crews of long-term missions face new challenges of boredom, repetitiveness, lack of privacy, no easy outside, and "doing domesticity" in a sterile setting? The Sociological Review
Who will own the Moon's resources? Digital Journal
What are the ethics of mining the Moon? Eos
What are the main challenges facing any mining operation on the moon, or in space? Mining Global
What will the future exploration of the Galilean moons look like if the MMAT is effective? Universe Today
When will see Europeans on the Moon? SpaceWatch.Global
When can we expect space tourism to become commonplace? Phys Org
Why throw the ISS away, when it could be offered to the international private sector for use as a lunar-staging infrastructure? Tech Crunch
With enough money and enough will, could China beat the U.S. back to the moon? Time
Will increasing traffic to the Moon contaminate its precious ice? Europa
Will space tourism harm the environment? The Conversation
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