Space
A Future Prognosis
Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow
3 December 2024
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By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy.
SpaceNews
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a world first, part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030.
The Guardian
China has launched a probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon - in a world first - as part of its goal to land a human on the lunar surface by 2030.
The Guardian
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
- Intel's integration with its upcoming Lunar Lake CPUs could provide unique advantages in system-level optimizations. ComputerCity
- Researchers from Trinity College Dublin have uncovered a method to transform Martian and lunar sand into durable bricks, a discovery that could dramatically impact the future of space exploration. The Daily Galaxy - Great Discoveries Channel
- 32% of Americans believed that stable and liveable space settlements would be a reality by 2068, and 50% were convinced that space tourism would become standard. Viterbi Conversations in Ethics
Weaknesses
- While the nearly full moon may hinder visibility of fainter meteors in 2024, patient observers might still catch some of the brightest streaks. Space Enthusiast
- ESA's Zero Debris Approach ESA aims to limit debris generation in Earth and lunar orbits by 2030 through its Zero Debris Approach. Space Daily
- NASA's LunaRecycle Challenge will incentivize the design and development of energy-efficient, low-mass, and low-impact recycling solutions that address physical waste streams and improve the sustainability of longer-duration lunar missions. NASA
Opportunities
- NASA's huge lunar rocket, the Space Launch System, might be in trouble. MIT Technology Review
- Made from faux Martian and lunar soil, a new sulfur-based compound could also lead to faster construction on Earth. MIT Technology Review
- If NASA establishes a permanent presence on the moon, its astronauts' homes could be made of a new 3D-printable, waterless concrete. MIT Technology Review
Threats
- U.S. officials fear thatupon achieving global space power status, China may utilize tactics in space to advanceterritorial claims on Earth and attempt to lay claim to lunar resources. JD Supra
- Looking ahead, the expansion of analog missions will align with the evolving goals of space exploration, particularly as global space agencies, including ISRO, intensify their focus on lunar bases and Mars missions. The Week
- With the Artemis III mission, originally planned for 2026, at risk of slipping further toward the end of the decade, it's possible that China could yet be putting boots on the lunar surface ahead of the US. NASASpaceFlight.com
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
PEST
Political
- If successful, Japan will be the fourth country to reach the moon, following the former Soviet Union, the United States, and China.
- Understanding how mini-moons are captured by Earth's gravity could have implications for planetary defence. Jegtheme
- As seen from a roughly 165-mile-wide (266 kilometers) path across the Pacific Ocean, Patagonia (southern Chile and Argentina) and the Atlantic Ocean, the moon's shadow will go straight across the sun's center to create a brief ring of light dubbed a ring of fire. Space
Economic
- Orbital Constellation: A constellation of lunar navigation satellites will form the backbone of the LNS. New Space Economy
- Artemis is viewed as a highly promising cryptocurrency that could potentially achieve a 1000 x return by the year 2025. Brave New Coin
- Projects like presale crypto Artemis demonstrate how a well-laid-out tokenomics model will give long-term value preservation through controlled supply and strategic distribution mechanisms. Brave New Coin
Social
- Artemis IV: The Artemis IV mission will see an expanded PNT infrastructure with the deployment of lunar communication relay satellites. New Space Economy
- China, Roscosmos, and the ESA hope to create lunar habitats and related infrastructure to allow for a permanent human presence on the Moon. Universe Today
- The Korea Institute has developed a method to produce strong, homogeneous building materials using microwave sintering, which could significantly reduce the cost of lunar infrastructure development. SciTechDaily
Technological
- Traditional concrete requires large amounts of water, a commodity that will be in short supply on the moon and critically important for life support or scientific research. MIT Technology Review
- Traditional concrete requires large amounts of water, a commodity that will be in short supply on the moon, and sending just 1 kilogram of it to the moon costs roughly $1.2 million. MIT Technology Review
- Firefly Aerospace says it is planning a launch of its first lunar lander mission in January, meaning that none of the three commercial lander missions once slated to launch in the fourth quarter of 2024 will do so. SpaceNews
PETs are projected to unleash between $1.1 trillion and $2.9 trillion of value, as highlighted in a report by Lunar Ventures.
Syntheticus AG
Ives said that if the Trump administration increases funding for NASA's efforts to return to the moon and travel to Mars, SpaceX's value could easily increase to $500 billion or more.
CNN
EUS costs are expected to balloon to $2 billion through 2025 and reach $2.8 billion by the time Artemis IV lifts off in 2028.
Flying Magazine
By the end of this decade, the U.S. and its allies could face a gap in American presence in LEO amidst a continued Chinese interest in strategic lunar geography - a scenario with implications not only for science and exploration but also for U.S. leadership and the global space economy.
SpaceNews
The robotic Chang' e 5 returned lunar samples back to Earth in 2020 and Chang' e 6, which launches in May 2024, will bring back the first samples from the Moon's far side.
BBC
NASA's Artemis II mission, a warmup for a lunar landing planned for 2025, will mark the first time astronauts have gone beyond low Earth orbit since the Apollo 17 mission, in 1972.
IEEE Spectrum
Through P4 S, Australia will provide an important contribution towards NASA's Artemis Accords, which plans to put the first woman and first person of colour on the Moon by 2030, as well as develop the technologies required for humans to venture to Mars and return to Earth in the 2040s.
Connected Cities Lab
As the 80% illuminated Moon aligns with Neptune, the planet will disappear behind the Moon's unilluminated edge and reappear from its bright side.
AstroTelescopium
Moons around other planets, especially gas giants, could have similarly complex and unexpected origins.
The Daily Galaxy - Great Discoveries Channel
Key topics
The new moon falls at 16 degrees of Cancer, forming a very close sextile to Uranus, the planet of rebellion and electrifying change, which will be at 15 degrees of fellow earth sign Taurus.
InStyle
NASA plans to get humans back on the Moon within this decade, so designing systems that make a sustained human presence possible on our cold, atmosphere - less satellite are of utmost importance.
Gizmodo
Artemis II will mark the debut crewed flight - but not the first lunar landing - of an Apollo successor program aimed at returning astronauts to the moon's surface later this decade and ultimately establishing a sustainable outpost there as a stepping stone to future human exploration of Mars.
chinadailyhk