Fusion

A Future Prognosis

22 January 2022
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
The UK hopes to deliver the world's first prototype fusion power plant by 2040. GOV.UK
The U.K. hopes to deliver the world's first prototype fusion power plant, STEP (Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production), by 2040. Forbes
CHIMERA (or Combined Heating and Magnetic Research Apparatus) will be the only machine in the world capable of testing components under the combination of conditions encountered in large fusion devices. Yorkshire
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • With a strong heritage in fusion, advancing programmes such as JET, and a burgeoning UK fusion supply chain, the UK has a unique opportunity to be the global leader in a Net Zero world with fusion energy at its heart. www.tokamakenergy.co.uk
  • Of the AEA with respect to exports of deuterium for nuclear end use, which the NRC will continue to regulate as a material especially relevant for export control because of [its] significance for nuclear explosive purposes. Federal Register
  • To the extent that any risk of diversion may exist, the export of deuterium for nonnuclear uses will continued to be controlled by U.S. export regulations. News
Weaknesses
  • For fusion energy to be accepted by people in Japan, it is essential that benefits and potential hazards are clearly communicated, rather than creating a safety myth like the one that made people believe - before the Fukushima catastrophe - that nuclear plants were not a disaster concern. The Japan Times
  • Fusion power has a huge potential to transition the world towards a cleaner and safer energy future, but so far it has proven incredibly difficult to build the necessary technology to make it commercially viable. The Optimist Daily
  • For fusion energy to be accepted by people in Japan, it is essential that benefits and potential hazards are clearly communicated, rather than creating a safety myth like the one that made people believe before Fukushima that nuclear plants were not a disaster concern. The Mainichi
Opportunities
  • The Fukushima disaster and efforts to reduce carbon emissions have many countries and companies scrambling for clean energy sources, and fusion is coming back into fashion due to its potential to meet demand without the hidden costs and dangers of other alternatives. Korea JoongAng Daily
  • The European Investment Bank is pumping hundreds of millions of euros into the Divertor Tokamak Test facility, an Italian program to produce fusion energy by 2050. Asia Financial
  • A pioneering reactor in Britain is gearing up to start pivotal tests of a fuel mix that will eventually power the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor - the world's biggest nuclear-fusion experiment. Asia Financial
Threats
  • Both the Chinese and South Korean projects are components in the larger global project that will be the make or break of fusion energy generation. Asia Times
  • Anti-nuclear activists argue that using a civilian nuclear power plant to help make nuclear bomb materials risks putting nuclear weapons into the hands of more countries and terrorists and will put more radioactive tritium into the Tennessee River and Chattanooga's drinking water. timesfreepress.com
  • Exabeam Fusion SIEM and Exabeam Fusion XDR combined with the BlackBerry AI-powered solutions will offer thousands of BlackBerry customers a powerful and prescriptive solution to solve their most pressing threat, detection, investigation, and response needs. Dark Reading
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
fusion, clean, built, commercial, elevator, fuel
Emerging
fusion, commercial, EV, charger, clean, cost
Maturing
fusion, commercial, clean, carbon, company, electricity
Declining
fusion, national, coal
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
The UK hopes to deliver the world's first prototype fusion power plant by 2040. GOV.UK
A pioneering reactor in Britain is gearing up to start pivotal tests of a fuel mix that will eventually power the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor - the world's biggest nuclear-fusion experiment. Asia Financial
PEST
Political
  • Zero-carbon energy from fusion would benefit from President Biden's recent executive order calling for the Federal government's energy purchases to be net-zero by 2030. Forbes
  • In theory, nuclear fusion could produce a terajoule of energy, which is approximately the amount one person in a developed country consumes over a 60-year period, with just a few grams of a mixture of deuterium and tritium. The Mainichi
Economic
  • Ireland-based Fusion Fuel Green says its solar-powered electrolyzers will be able to make green hydrogen that is cost-competitive with gray hydrogen by 2023. Yahoo News
  • We need trailblazing companies like Tokamak Energy to harness the power of fusion and demonstrate its remarkable potential as a potentially limitless, clean and safe source of energy for the future. The Oxford Magazine
  • Zap will reach Q = 1, or scientific breakeven - the point at which the energy released by the fusing atoms is equal to the energy required to create the conditions for fusion - by mid-2023, which would make it the first fusion project to do so. IEEE Spectrum
Social
  • For fusion energy to be accepted by people in Japan, it is essential that benefits and potential hazards are clearly communicated, rather than creating a safety myth like the one that made people believe before Fukushima that nuclear plants were not a disaster concern. The Mainichi
  • A small railway town in southern England could go down in history as the place where nuclear fusion kicked off. Euronews.com
  • The U.S. fusion community has just completed a two year strategic planning process to focus on a bold new direction: the construction of a prototype fusion power plant by 2035. phys.org
Technological
  • Fusion power has a huge potential to transition the world towards a cleaner and safer energy future, but so far it has proven incredibly difficult to build the necessary technology to make it commercially viable. The Optimist Daily
  • While newer energy technologies like nuclear fusion, biofuel, and liquid hydrogen might take longer to come full circle, we look forward to serious advancements in 2022. Impact Lab
  • Aqua's adoption of Tritium's technology will promote its mission to reduce the impact of boating on the marine environment by developing an all-electric and integrated global ecosystem of marine fast chargers. Tritium
Financial Impact
If NNSA decides to pursue a government funded enrichment solution, a capability sized to produce enriched uranium solely for tritium production could cost $3.3 billion to $14.1 billion. GAO
An experiment suggests the goal of "ignition", where the energy released by fusion exceeds that delivered by the laser, is now within touching distance. BBC News
All going to plan, the 50 MW, shipping-container sized device will then serve as the blueprint for the scale rollout of fusion reactors by the early 2030s. The Engineer
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
HTS magnets will be used to enable SPARC, the world's first net energy from fusion device, and then ARC, the first fusion power plant. NextBigFuture.com
Policymakers across the world trying to respond to the risks of climate change have been looking at various forms of renewable energy generation, including nuclear fusion technologies. IPWatchdog
Fusion energy promises a gradual change in how the world's future energy needs will be met in a low-carbon, safe and sustainable way. Eminetra.co.uk
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
We are likely to see a new generation of nuclear power stations by 2060-2070 based on nuclear fusion, which is a radically different technology from splitting the atom (fission) and involves fusing two different atoms together to release energy, with far less radioactive waste. Global Change
The world needs to mount a Covid-scale investment worth hundreds of billions of pounds in green technologies if it is to tackle global warming, the head of Britain's nuclear fusion programme has warned. inews.co.uk
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
SPARC will very likely achieve a burning plasma for the first time on earth, meaning the fusion process will be dominantly self-heating. NextBigFuture.com
71% of companies believe a 2030s target is achievable for commercialization of fusion as a clean energy technology. Fusion Industry Assn
Oxford, UK: Fusion energy could be the most cost-effective solution for clean baseload power, four times cheaper than nuclear, complementing the need to continue rolling out renewable energy technologies as fast as possible to achieve a zero carbon global energy system by 2050. First Light Fusion Ltd
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
If lunar helium-3 fusion becomes a reality in a few decades, China and its allies could stand out in a world strangled by energy needs growing faster than supply. The Space Review
Both the Chinese and South Korean projects are components in the larger global project that will be the make or break of fusion energy generation. Asia Times
Washington startup Helion Energy says its seventh-gen Polaris prototype will be the world's first fusion generator to demonstrate net electricity production, as early as 2024, and it's roped in a record-breaking funding round to get it built and running. New Atlas
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
UKAEA is working with international partners to prepare the world's first reactor-scale fusion experiment, ITER, scheduled to start up in France in 2025: Over €500 million of deals on ITER have already gone to British firms and a similar amount is expected in the coming years. Department for Culture Media & Sport
CFS will make money by designing and building nuclear fusion power plants for customers, which could begin to produce revenue this decade. CNBC
Questions
Can?
Can fusion energy be in time to make a difference to climate change? Ars Technica
How can the miniaturization of nuclear fusion be best exploited? Williams Foundation
How?
How Artificial Intelligence is Outsmarting Human Scientists >> Chinese Scientists 'Strike Gold' In a Nuclear Fusion Breakthrough >> Would Flinging Rockets Into Space by Spinning Them Around Cut Down Launch Costs? Futureseek Link Digest
How much will Tokamak Network be worth in the future? cryptopredictions.com
How TSMC Builds a $19 Billion Fab >> The World's Largest Fusion Reactor Now Has the World's Most Powerful Magnet >> Who Will Build Consumers a Debt Dashboard? Futureseek Link Digest
What?
What exactly is fusion energy - and what will the fusion power plants of the future look like? New Civil Engineer
What is fusion energy, and why the excitement? GeekWire
Even if things go well, getting real fusion power plants online before 2050 would be a triumph, raising an awkward question: what if fusion comes too late? Guardian
When?
When will nuclear fusion become a viable source of energy? Euronews.com
Will?
Will Singapore one day be powered by fusion energy? A*STAR Research
Will human-controlled nuclear fusion be a reality in less than a decade? newsotr.com
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