Longevity

A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

14 August 2022
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
As highlighted by the US National Academy of Medicine's Global Roadmap for Healthy Longevity, multiple systems within society will need to be activated, transformed and coordinated to address all aspects of life. National University of Singapore
The WPP estimates average global longevity to be around 77.2 years in 2050 due to further reduction in mortality levels. The Hindu
Hurricanes are among the most severe natural hazards on Earth, often inflicting extensive damage and loss of life when they strike coastal communities. Eos
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • Claiming to be the UK's first lender specifically backing public sector workers, Bevan Money will provide mortgages for first-time buyers and later-life borrowers as well as provide ethical accounts for bigger-picture savers. FinTech Futures
  • The IoCT will underpin the development of Longevity-as-a Service, new products and services that mobilise data for AI in exciting areas, enabling the UK to demonstrate global leadership in digital regulation with robust global standards to become the world's tech testbed. Longevity.Technology - Latest News, Opinions, Analysis
  • By increasing healthy longevity, societies can tap into the opportunities offered by people as they live a full and robust life, being and doing what they value. Medical Xpress
Weaknesses
  • The Federal Office for the Safety of Nuclear Waste Management warns of an increase in nuclear waste in Germany in the event of a possible extension of the life of the remaining nuclear power plants. Aviation Analysis Wing
  • The IEA Net Zero scenario stated there can be no new coal mines or extensions from 2021 so the decision to still seek a mine life extension from 2026 to 2030 is completely inconsistent with the Paris Agreement and limiting warming to 1.5 degrees. The Guardian
  • Should the magnetic shield weaken e enough during a reversal, there will be an increase in solar radiation that could have consequences for life on the planet. Tech Times
Opportunities
  • Among the top 10 trends in 2022 cited by Innova was the growing importance of the gut microbiome, which Innova says has the potential to be a game changer in how consumers manage their health. The Organic & Non-GMO Report
  • Quality of life issues, such as side effects and study requirements were important for both French clinicians and PWH as factors influencing participation in HIV cure trials, with physicians giving somewhat greater weight to the potential for participants to successfully maintain an ATI. Taylor & Francis
  • The first approved therapy from geroscience will come within five years. NEO.LIFE
Threats
  • Whereas the 2030 goals still reflected the AHA's long-term trajectory, it rapidly became clear that COVID-19 would cause substantial disruption and unpredictable trends in mortality rates, overall longevity, and healthy longevity. Circulation
  • Background Global life expectancy has been increasing without a corresponding increase in health span and with greater risk for aging-associated diseases such as Alzheimer's disease. bioRxiv
  • One way to express the impact of lower fertility rates, increased longevity of Social Security beneficiaries, and the overall aging of the U.S. population is to measure the ratio of projected workers to beneficiaries. Actuarial Update
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
bacteria, artificial intelligence, scientist
Emerging
ageing, anti-aging, consumer, discovery, health, longevity
Maturing
longevity, ageing, anti-aging, adult, care, market
Declining
ageing, economy, growth, life expectancy, longevity, Arctic
Sentiment
Past Year: Stable
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
As highlighted by the US National Academy of Medicine's Global Roadmap for Healthy Longevity, multiple systems within society will need to be activated, transformed and coordinated to address all aspects of life. National University of Singapore
While aging is unequivocally the major risk factor for age-related diseases, regulatory bodies around the world, such as the FDA or EMA, do not yet recognize geroscience-guided clinical outcomes as a path to regulatory approval. Fight Aging!
PEST
Political
  • Greece will scrap many remaining COVID-19-related protocols next week, making it the latest country to plan to revert to pre-pandemic life. Travel + Leisure
  • Net-zero is already starting to be mandated (see article on recent UK policy) and energy companies will have to view decarbonized power sources as the key to their longevity, not a threat to it. Transport Times
  • The Ag Visa will complement the PALM scheme, which remains vitally important to the citrus industry and has only recently been through an extensive reform process to make it more accessible to Australian citrus growers. Citrus Australia
Economic
  • While stamp duty land tax has impressive longevity, economists on both sides of the political spectrum are in agreement it is a distorting tax that could be worsening Britain's housing crisis by stifling activity. The Telegraph
  • Despite fears of outliving savings, most Americans still want to live longer, a study on longevity and retirement shows. CNBC
  • Longevity industry is estimated to be worth $26.5 trillion in 2022 and expected to reach $33 trillion in 2026. Zawya
Social
  • With the global population rapidly ageing it was crucial to get a better understanding of the potential of NAD + as an anti-ageing molecule via human trials. NutraIngredients-Asia.com
  • In Ukraine itself, the United Nations has described extensive damage and loss of life in rural areas as well as key population centres, sparking fears that crops may not get planted. The Scotsman
  • After 'Glass Skin' and 'Dolphin Skin,' TikTok users are now all going crazy for 'Jello Skin,' a new anti-aging skincare trend straight out of Korea. Premium Beauty News
Technological
  • Uncultured genera and phyla could comprise 7.3×10^29 and 2.2×10^29 of microbial cells across earth's microbiomes, respectively. BioMed Central
  • Longevity Technology: With regard to space, space travel and science, there have been many meaningful studies conducted that indicate 3D bioprinting on the International Space Station (ISS) could improve drug screening and cancer research. Longevity.Technology
  • XDR is a lot of hype without the supporting longevity - and it will become a technology of the past within just a few years. Dark Reading
Financial Impact
An emerging industry in the MENA region, longevity is estimated to be worth $26.5 trillion in 2022 and is expected to reach $33 trillion in 2026 globally. Dubai Chronicle
An emerging industry in the MENA region, longevity is estimated to be worth $26.5 trillion in 2022 and expected to reach $33 trillion in 2026 globally. Zawya
Longevity industry is estimated to be worth $26.5 trillion in 2022 and expected to reach $33 trillion in 2026. Zawya
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
Globally, pensions and insurers hold an enormous amount of longevity risk from retirement obligations. Artemis.bm - The Catastrophe Bond, Insurance Linked Securities & Investment, Reinsurance Capital, Alternative Risk Transfer and Weather Risk Management site
Some of the most knowledgeable and resourceful voices globally in the longevity space are behind their mission to be a new approach that will empower people to make the appropriate lifestyle changes and take advantage of supplements and Rx therapies that will allow them to live longer and healthier. Forbes
MetLife, Inc., one of the largest life and annuities insurance groups in the world, has provided reinsurance to cover $2.4 billion of pension fund related longevity risk for European pension and life consolidator Phoenix Group. Artemis.bm - The Catastrophe Bond, Insurance Linked Securities & Investment, Reinsurance Capital, Alternative Risk Transfer and Weather Risk Management site
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Land-grabbing, wars and slavery connect with the extensive spread of commercial monocultures as economic structures displacing and threatening much of the world's human biological and cultural life with extinction. Apple Podcasts
Irish Travellers have beneficial differences in their gut microbiome, which could be impacted if they change to a settled lifestyle. Silicon Republic
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
The concept that international travel, or travel of any kind, is a risk factor for microbiome change is fairly well accepted now. CIDRAP
The United Nations set a goal of conserving 30% of the planet by 2030, but the needed conservation efforts are just as complex and varied as the globe's flora, fauna, and trillions of microbiomes. McKinsey & Company
Forests and Land Use, committing to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030, was signed by 141 countries, including China and Brazil - breathing new life into the commitments made under the New York Declaration on Forests in 2014. Forest500
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Even if no formal physiological limit exists, reaching the frontiers of survival is no mean feat, and further gains in longevity might ultimately require remarkable advances in medical science, even if the ranks of the world's centenarians continue to swell. Nature Medicine
Viable longevity education with practical translation will thus ultimately improve health-care systems worldwide and decrease disease occurrence by training health-care providers to tackle the most common and strongest contributor of disease - unhealthy aging. Fight Aging!
We see a big potential for textile manufacturers to extend the longevity of MMCF fabrics, ultimately offering consumers longer lasting garments made of fibers from nature. Textile World
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
The first approved therapy from geroscience will come within five years. NEO.LIFE
Businesses need to recognise the overarching impact of ageing and rising longevity and embrace the opportunities it will bring in the coming years. Euromonitor
Questions
Can?
How Can Ethics Contribute to a Sustainable Aging Workforce in the Area of Technology? JMIR Human Factors
What can we do to avoid mass extinctions of life-forms on Earth and to reverse the threat of losing centuries of human progress? Cosmos HackAtom VI
How can the plant microbiome be used to improve crops? Gii Research
How?
How large will the longevity biotechnology field be? Longevity Wiki
How is diversity guaranteed as a constitutive feature of humanity by the Longevity World Community? Open Lifespan
How should we think about ethics at the dawning of the robotic age? Insurge Intelligence
Who?
Who are the most prominent players in the global Anti-aging Drugs market? Trends
What?
What are the essential "Global" media ethics in the digital age? Iamcr
What will become of the March for Life if Roe is reversed? National Review
Even if anti-ageing techniques eventually proved successful, what would be the social and cultural consequences of literally pathologising old age? The Guardian
When?
One factor making Boston a potential hotbed when it comes to the explosion of the longevity economy? YOUAREUNLTD
Will?
Will anti-aging technology lead to overpopulation? Longevity Wiki
The very real ethical decisions that will be faced by AI-controlled cars: In an accident situation, whose life should be preserved - that of the passenger, another driver, or a pedestrian? Digital Trends
Will it someday be possible to find a cure for aging? Futurist Thomas Frey
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