Covid

A Future Prognosis

22 January 2022
Introduction
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Contents
User Guide
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Sources
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Nigeria is poised to become the third most populous nation in the world by the end of 2050, behind India and China, and ahead of the United States. The Guardian Nigeria News - Nigeria and World News
By 2030, up to two thirds of the world's poor will live in fragile and conflict affected states. Trocaire
By 2030, up to two-thirds of the world's extreme poor will live in countries characterised by fragility, conflict, and violence. The HALO Trust
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
SWOT
Strengths
  • The Covid-19 crisis has created a unique opportunity for the U.S. to build a stronger, more proactive, and more prepared public health system. STAT
  • The world's biggest iron ore producer has warned that its output could fall again in 2022 if it is hit by Covid-related disruption, labour and supply chain shortages or measures to protect Aboriginal sites in Australia. The Times
  • UNICEF is pleased to work with partners like the HOPE Consortium to support governments to strengthen health systems for the COVID-19 response and beyond - making them resilient for the future. New Business Ethiopia
Weaknesses
  • Proof of vaccination or a negative Covid-19 test will no longer be needed from next week to enter nightclubs and other large venues in England. WSJ
  • 2022 could be worse than average given worries about inflation, Covid variants, supply chain delays and the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy. Forbes
  • COVID-19 variants like Delta and Omicron have made it difficult for organizations to forecast provider staffing needs and prioritize markets accurately. SCP Health
Opportunities
  • The UKHSA is an integral part of the public health system and the national security infrastructure and will deploy state-of-the-art technologies and expert capabilities in data analytics and genomic surveillance to tackle coronavirus (COVID-19) and future threats locally, nationally, and globally. Deloitte United Kingdom
  • In the current climate, honesty as to how COVID-19 or supply chain events may lead to disruption is a good place to start, and will help establish healthy rapport, and create a bond of trust that will ensure consumer relationships thrive throughout 2022 and beyond. MYCustomer
  • The World Bank budget support is coming at a critical time for us and will contribute towards addressing the financing gap stemming from additional spending in response to the Covid-19 crisis. Moneyweb
Threats
  • Infants younger than a year in Africa have nearly five times the risk of dying than adolescents aged 15 to 19 years after contracting Covid-19, a recent study published in the journal, American Medical Association, suggests. The Mail & Guardian
  • The science around Covid is at risk of being seen merely as a politicised arm of the global liberal elite. Paul Ormerod
  • SSmall businesses see rising energy costs as the biggest problem they face over the year to come, ahead of Brexit red tape, supply-chain disruption and even the ongoing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. MoneyWeek
Influencers
Countries
Cities
People
Organizations
S-Curve

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

Weak
people, augmented reality, infection, COVID-19, health, 3D
Emerging
country, pandemic, vaccine, health, people, company
Maturing
country, demand, crisis, economy, death, GDP
Declining
GDP, economy, demand, crisis, country, growth
Sentiment
Past Year: More Negative
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Nigeria is poised to become the third most populous nation in the world by the end of 2050, behind India and China, and ahead of the United States. The Guardian Nigeria News - Nigeria and World News
US President Biden has set a goal for 70% of the world's population to be vaccinated against COVID-19 by the end of 2022. The Pandora Report
PEST
Political
  • While the hit to Chinese demand will be large due to its zero-Covid policy, we see it offset by strong demand in 4 Q21, gas-to-oil substitution and supply disappointments. Moneycontrol
  • In Shenzhen, officials blamed contaminated packaging of imported products for a recent spread of the Delta variant, prompting city authorities on Monday to warn residents not to buy goods from high-risk countries. The New York Times
  • Pent-up global demand generated by the Covid-related travel restrictions of the past two years will cause heightened expectations among travellers seeking to make up lost time. ITIJ
Economic
  • The Indian Media & Entertainment industry has revived to pre-COVID levels and is expected to grow to USD 55-70 billion by 2030 with a CAGR of 10 to 12%, driven mainly by strong growth in OTT, Gaming, Animation and VFX. Economic Times
  • A new annual production record of 56,139 tonnes of copper was achieved in 2021, exceeding Atalaya's increased guidance despite operational challenges and risks related to COVID-19 restrictions throughout the year. Junior Mining Network
  • The economic and multifamily recovery is expected to continue through 2022, although COVID-19 is still with us, which could cause fresh waves of economic uncertainty that will likely persist throughout 2022. Freddie Mac Multifamily Research
Social
  • The EU obstructed critical measures to ending the Covid-19 pandemic by opposing proposals to temporarily waive intellectual property and trade rules that could facilitate worldwide production and availability of Covid-19 tests, treatments, and vaccines. Human Rights Watch
  • Israel hopes its stocks of Pfizer Inc and Merck & Co Inc's antiviral COVID-19 medications will help keep hospital admissions and severe cases down, even as daily cases are expected to rise to record highs in the coming weeks. Trend.Az
  • The amount that UNRWA is requesting for 2022 will directly contribute to the wellbeing of Palestine refugees, to efforts to combat and contain COVID-19 and to regional stability. Global Issues
Technological
  • Developing nations must be encouraged to publish data on new variants without fear of economic repercussions because punishing countries like South Africa will only hamper information sharing that is needed to combat Covid-19 and future pandemics. Mint
  • As COVID-19 cases surge in the United States, businesses say they fear a California court ruling has increased the likelihood that companies will be sued for infections, even by people who are not employees or customers. Yahoo Finance
  • One area that has benefitted from the world's recent adversity is the automation industry, with Covid-19 driving companies to accelerate their plans to incorporate automation and robotics into their business in a bid to protect themselves from further disruption. Industrial Vehicle Technology International
Financial Impact
ESG assets are on track to exceed $53 trillion by 2025, representing one-third of global investments. VentureBeat
In a year marked by a waning pandemic, new Covid variants, supply chain disruptions and a fits-and-starts U.S. economic recovery, the S&P 500 smashed old records en route to a 26% gain and the creation of $8.6 trillion in value. BloombergQuint
As a result of school closures related to COVID-19, the current generation of students is expected to lose USD 17 trillion in current value in lifetime income, or about 14% of today's global GDP. Indianshri
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Organizations
Sectors
Cities
Countries
People
Scenarios
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
U.S. President Biden has set a goal for 70% of the world's population to be vaccinated against Covid-19 by the end of 2022. Statista Infographics
Port of Seattle was the first global port to provide shore power at two cruise berths and is on track to complete a third shore power connection that will make all cruise berths shore power-equipped by 2023. World Economic Forum
By 2050 around two thirds of the world's population will be living in cities, they are set to play a key role in tackling the effects of climate change. Enel SpA
Warnings
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The rate of deforestation had fallen globally by about a third compared with the previous decade, while there were successful cases of the eradication of invasive alien species from islands and the targeting of priority species to avoid future invasive species threatening water and ecosystems. The Mail & Guardian
COVAX's aim of delivering 2 billion doses to participating countries by the end of 2021 - including 92 low-income countries that can not afford to buy vaccines directly from manufacturers - is threatened by chronic under-investment, vaccine nationalism and export restrictions. The Conversation
Solutions
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Rolls-Royce intends to transition all of its Trent engines - which power around 40% of the world's long-haul aircraft reportedly - to sustainable fuel by 2023. Air Cargo News
Canada used the G20 summit to announce that it will donate 10 million Moderna COVID-19 vaccines to fight the global pandemic and insisted it would deliver 200 million doses by the end of 2022 in spite of coming up well short on previous pledges. The Globe and Mail
Taiwan has established long-term reduction targets and is planning a practical path to emit net-zero GHGs by 2050. iPolitics
Key topics
Extremes
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
With an estimated 60,000 charging points in Singapore by 2030 based on the assumption that one-third of the cars in Singapore will be EVs, Singapore will not suffer the common pain point of insufficient charging points found in other parts of the world. CNA
By 2030, up to two-thirds of the global extreme poor will be living in fragile and conflict-affected situations. United Nations Development Programme
Violent conflict is the primary driver of humanitarian needs, with the World Bank estimating that by 2030, two thirds of the world's extreme poor will live in areas affected by conflict. CDA Collaborative
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
With no concrete plans for new long-term storage facilities in the UK and declining UK Continental Shelf, it could point to a greater LNG dependency in the coming years. World Oil
Significant resources will need to be mobilised in the coming years to reverse the worldwide effects of COVID-19, and Latin America cannot be left out. CIDOB
Questions
Can?
Navigating Evolving Risks on the Regulatory Horizon: How can financial firms deal with regulatory change, COVID-19 fallout, and a rapidly mutating ecosystem of risks? www.acaglobal.com
How can we build a more equitable, sustainable, and accountable medical innovation system that serves everyone's health needs, starting today with the COVID-19 pandemic? The Lancet
How can STEM education contribute to solving sustainability issues (e.g., climate change and the COVID crisis)? MDPI
How?
How will the casting of COVID-19, inflation, rising interest rates, and a not-so-cheap stock market play out? www.wcfinc.com
How will consumers and economies around the world react to the uncertainty of new waves of COVID-19? investing.com
As the effects of COVID-19 continue to impact the global supply chain, how should businesses seek to build resilience into their supply chains moving forward? KPMG
Who?
The retreat from strategic ambition evident over the past twenty years begs two fundamental questions; where exactly is the necessary fighting power and all of its enablers going to come from, and who is going to pay for it in the post-COVID European economy? Julian Lindley-French
What of the millions of former travel workers who are now seeking jobs outside of travel because they fear Covid-19 is here to stay and subsequent variants could shut down travel over and over again? TTRWeekly
What will happen to the countries who pursued a zero-Covid strategy? What the data tells us about the next phase of the Covid-19 pandemic
What?
What are the inhibiting factors and impact of COVID-19 shaping the Global Intimate Apparel Market during the forecast period? Research and Markets
What are the key takeaways from the COVID-19 pandemic, and what will 2022 look like? Ad Age
What are the inhibiting factors and impact of COVID-19 shaping the Global Automated Visual Field Analyzer Market during the forecast period? Yahoo Finance
When?
How should decarbonisation measures be designed at a time when accommodations around the world are only slowly starting to recover from the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic? A World Worth Experiencing
How can the Canadian care economy be made more equitable when it continues to be overwhelmingly female and racialized, as highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic? Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council
When can we expect a return to a post-COVID - 19 economy and what must be done to address risks and drive inclusive economic growth? Modern Diplomacy
Will?
Now as Covid-19 restrictions across the world ease as the world returns to "normal" is it possible that livestreaming elements once adopted by brands will phase out or are they now here to stay? Retail Gazette
The continued impact of COVID-19 has brought about interesting trends for sustainability across all industries throughout 2021 - which ones will continue to thrive throughout 2022 and beyond? TechRound
Will Covid-19 become less dangerous as it evolves? Crooked Media
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