A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

14 August 2022
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
Without a coordinated strategy to ensure critical virus-fighting tools and technology are accessible everywhere, COVID could cost the world $14 trillion by the end of 2024. ONE
Without a global strategy to ensure critical virus-fighting tools and technology are accessible everywhere, COVID could cost the world $14 trillion by the end of 2024. ONE
The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the estimated global shortage of 18 million health workers by 2030. The White House
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • Despite potential risks from further COVID-19 restrictions and slower economic growth as inflationary pressures and the war in Ukraine impact the global economy, the outlook for commodity markets is expected to remain strong in the second half of the year.
  • As omicron sub-variants become ever-more infectious, Xi's resolve to avert virus fatalities is growing stronger - leading many experts to warn that Covid Zero could continue well beyond 2022. the weekly ledger
  • Canada's largest pension funds have a long history of financial strength, continually adapting to new risks and emerging from the financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic relatively unscathed. Green Finance Platform
  • Poor ventilation could be responsible for more than 10% of Covid cases, Professor Noakes said, equivalent to roughly 20,000 deaths in the UK. Imeche
  • BC Blind Sports and Recreation Association expressed concerns that COVID-19 and increasing costs will reduce participation in sports, emphasising the importance of equitable opportunities in sport. Legislative Assembly of the Province of British Columbi
  • The global industry, which suffered from supply-chain snags during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, now faces weak demand as inflation and recession fears reduce orders for chips used in everything from cars to mobile phones. Reuters
  • The good news is that 5G massive MIMO will continue to grow, despite the COVID-19 bug, especially in the Southeast Asia Pacific area, and as well as in Europe. 5G Technology World
  • Russia's assault on Ukraine has caused food and energy price shocks that - combined with the effects of COVID-19 - threaten to create social and political unrest in parts of the world far beyond Eastern Europe. Crisis Group
  • Enthusiasm for telehealth's convenience has grown, even as the fears of Covid-19 that prompted the Trump administration and Congress to expand it have abated. Politico
  • The development of early indicators or warning systems is an essential lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic and will be a priority for international bodies such as the World Health Organization.
  • South Korea's Unification Ministry, which handles cross-border relations, expressed regret about North Korea's repeated groundless claims regarding the origin of its COVID outbreak and its rude and threatening remarks. Reuters
  • Efforts by the United States and Europe to build an independent supply chain for the key minerals used in EVs have accelerated with heightened tensions between the West and China and Russia, while the covid-19 pandemic highlighted the risks from supply chain shutdowns and shortages.

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

people, augmented reality, infection, COVID-19, health, 3D
country, pandemic, vaccine, people, health, company
country, demand, crisis, economy, death, GDP
economy, GDP, demand, crisis, country, growth
Past Year: More Negative
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
Without a coordinated strategy to ensure critical virus-fighting tools and technology are accessible everywhere, COVID could cost the world $14 trillion by the end of 2024. ONE
If the world's energy consumption grows at the pre-COVID rate, technological change alone will not be enough to halve global CO2 emissions by 2030. Climate Code Red
  • COP 27 will be no easier, as rich countries arrive with purse strings tightened by soaring energy costs, the economic fallout of the Ukraine crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, which prompted wealthy countries spend trillions of dollars propping up their economies. chinadailyhk
  • Before the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the Netherlands and Germany were hesitant about 'Euro bonds' and other mechanisms that could effectively deleverage or redistribute unionwide debt. China-US Focus
  • COP 27 will be no easier, as rich countries arrive with purse strings tightened by soaring energy costs, the economic fallout of the Ukraine war and the COVID-19 pandemic, which prompted wealthy countries spend trillions of dollars propping up their economies. Reuters
  • The focus on domestic manufacturing will add reliability and efficiency to the fragile global supply chains that drove inflation in the period after the COVID-19 lockdowns. Corporate Knights
  • Oil prices are rebounding after falling over 6% last week as recession fears and rising COVID cases in China hurt the demand outlook. forex UK CD
  • Canada's economy rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic far faster than virtually any economist would have dared predict.
  • Analyzing Black Lives Matter protests after the murder of George Floyd without considering and contextualizing the psycho-social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic will likely result in a reductionist account of events. Frontiers
  • The New York City Test and Trace has proven proficient in reaching people in traditionally underserved neighborhoods, and now as 'Test and Treat' they will be better equipped to direct New Yorkers who test positive for COVID-19 to the potentially life-saving treatments they may require. NYC Health + Hospitals
  • The CDC advisory states in black, bold, and no uncertain terms that, despite the risk of rebound Covid, Paxlovid continues to be recommended for early-stage treatment of mild to moderate Covid-19 among persons at high risk for progression to severe disease. STAT
  • The Covid-19 pandemic sparked a chip shortage and strained supply chains, highlighting America's dependence on foreign-made chips and revealing a potential national security threat. CNBC
  • All unvaccinated travelers ages 2 and older will be required to obtain a negative COVID-19 test - either a negative RT-PCR test or a Rapid Antigen test - taken no more than three days prior to travel and present the negative test results before boarding their flight to The Bahamas. For Immediate Release | Official News Wire for the Trav
  • Virtual WAN strategies are evolving to include software-defined ... COVID-related lockdowns around China prevented Cisco from getting critical components, leading to a projected decline in revenue.
Financial Impact
The cost of investing in institutions with effective emergency preparedness and response capabilities pales in comparison to the price of cleaning up after an ineffective response, which for COVID-19 is currently estimated to reach almost $14 trillion by the end of 2024. Council on Foreign Relations
Driven by technological advances and increased health concerns (due to the covid pandemic), global pharma sales could almost double by 2030 (reaching $3 tr, from $1.4 tr. NBG
Fuelled by the Covid-19 pandemic, consumers have dramatically shifted product discovery and purchases online; in fact, eMarketer predicts that ecommerce sales in the U.S. will exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2022 and grow exponentially in the coming years, topping $1.6 trillion by 2025. Ecommerce Age
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
The impact of war in Ukraine, sanctions on Russia and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic pose major challenges to the global economic outlook in 2022-2023, threatening its recovery from the 2020 recession. Euromonitor
By around 2030, the consequences of heating up the planet could include a $240 billion COVID-like economic shock every five years. Grist
Just as the story of the plastics industry in 2020 (and the world) was COVID-19, and 2021 was of the resin shortage - we believe 2022 will be the year of the pigment and additive shortage. Star Plastics
Changing proportion of published forecasts
The COVID-19 pandemic risks have reversed the efforts that were made worldwide in a decade to provide nutritious food to the most vulnerable children across the globe.
As the global rollout of vaccines picks up pace, the world that emerges from Covid, and the pace of change that will characterise the 2020s, will be very different from the decade before. Sibylline - Refined Insight
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
Canada used the G20 summit to announce that it will donate 10 million Moderna COVID-19 vaccines to fight the global pandemic and insisted it would deliver 200 million doses by the end of 2022 in spite of coming up well short on previous pledges. The Globe and Mail
Russia and China postponed other exercises for 2020, likely because of the COVID-19 global pandemic, but they will resume bilateral defense activities in 2021. Defense Intelligence Agency
Estimates show that 80% of the world's poor will live in fragile contexts by 2030, with a majority of them living in least developed countries, and reaffirmed that the least developed countries require enhanced global support to overcome both structural challenges and the impacts of COVID-19. Department of Economic and Social Affairs
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
COVID-19 pandemic could drive the number of people living in extreme poverty above 1 billion by 2030 globally. Zoom Video Communications
COVID-19 could push 49 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. ACT-IAC
The high number of COVID-19 deaths among disabled people ultimately reflects wider failures in how governments worldwide supported the people who were most at risk. The Valuable 500
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
Significant resources will need to be mobilised in the coming years to reverse the worldwide effects of COVID-19, and Latin America cannot be left out. CIDOB
COVID-19 will slash global economic output by $8.5 trillion over the next two years, about 10% of the 2019 global economy. Council of Councils
Realistically, what can we expect the experience of Covid-19 to change and where should we set the expectation management bar? The Society of Maritime Industries (SMI)
A fter two years of Covid-driven decline in public transport use and increasing automobile traffic globally, what can governments do to entice people out of their cars? The Guardian
How can the impact of COVID-19 be minimised? Center for Global Development | Ideas to Action
FAQ 8.3 | How does and will climate change interact with other global trends (e.g., urbanisation, economic globalisation) and shocks (e.g., COVID-19) to influence livelihoods of the poor? IPCC
If COVID zero does persist for months or even years longer, how bad could it get for China's economy and the rest of the world's? Intelligencer
How has COVID-19 Pandemic Impacted the Global Synthetic Biology Market? Visiongain
Who knows what 2022 will bring in terms of new COVID-19 waves, global conflict or environmental catastrophes that may impact an already strained Canadian immigration system? Canadian Immigrant
The retreat from strategic ambition evident over the past twenty years begs two fundamental questions; where exactly is the necessary fighting power and all of its enablers going to come from, and who is going to pay for it in the post-COVID European economy? Julian Lindley-French
What of the millions of former travel workers who are now seeking jobs outside of travel because they fear Covid-19 is here to stay and subsequent variants could shut down travel over and over again? TTRWeekly
Business leaders say the COVID-19 pandemic made their organizations more agile, more tech-supported, and more prepared for what might come next - but are they really? IBM
What mitigation measures should be put into place for PLHIV and OVC households experiencing food insecurity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic? U.S. Department of State
What is the potential impact of COVID-19 on food security and nutritional status of PLHIV and OVC households? U.S. Department of State
What's the smartest play when it comes to global stocks in this third year of Covid-19?
How should decarbonisation measures be designed at a time when accommodations around the world are only slowly starting to recover from the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic? A World Worth Experiencing
How can the Canadian care economy be made more equitable when it continues to be overwhelmingly female and racialized, as highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic? Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council
Will COVID-19 Change the Landscape of Financing Innovation in India? Niti Aayog
What impact will practices, which have had to be adapted in the Covid environment, have on the attitude and appetite for Automation, Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy for the Maritime Sector? The Society of Maritime Industries (SMI)
What are the ways going cashless will make customers feel even more engaged in the live event space versus pre-covid? Forbes
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