A Future Prognosis

Athena @ Shaping Tomorrow

22 June 2024
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World Outlook
Main factors that cause something to happen globally
By 2030, we envision a world where every business, regardless of scale or sector, harnesses the power of AI and emerging tech to drive transformative change. Small Business UK
By 2030, Saudi Arabia will have at least five universities among the top 200 universities in the world; and refocusing on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by encouraging financial assistance. Medium
The only way the world could hope to tackle the impending disaster of antimicrobial resistance - which estimates suggest could result in 10 million deaths a year by 2050 - was to fix the broken antibiotic business model. Chemistry World
Global regions, coloured according to number of forecasts
  • 85% of CEOs believe that AI will significantly change the way their company does business within the next five years, making ethical considerations paramount. Teqfocus
  • Consultation opens today on changes that aim to reduce unnecessary red tape for exporters and allow food businesses to do what they do best - bring jobs, opportunities and export dollars into New Zealand. The Beehive
  • Bolstered by a fundamentally strong business model (A + profitability grade), AWS and Amazon Advertising are expected to underpin Amazon's growth profile. Seeking Alpha
  • Funding for the disruption of organised immigration crime will double in 2023-24 and 2024-25 and the Illegal Migration Act will help break the business model of people smuggling gangs. / UK GOV.UK
  • Alternatively, the Federation of Thai SMEs argues that a higher minimum wage could mean that Thai employers hire cheaper migrant workers from Myanmar, Laos, and Cambodia, which could drive up unemployment. The Diplomat
  • The 2024 Investment Innovation Fund will provide grant capital to test models for increasing investment into early-stage waste and circularity businesses in Kenya. FundsforNGOs
  • TCB has launched its new strategic plan for the years 2024-2028, with the primary focus of trying to transform its balance sheet to serve SMEs more. / Tanzania 2024/2025 Mabumbe
  • Health Innovation East Digital Hub will be a first point of call for healthcare entrepreneurs looking to create and commercialise digital health solutions into the NHS. Digital Health
  • Next financial year, Government and Bank of Uganda are going to relax the requirements to ensure increased uptake of the SBRF to support SME growth. Kampala Dispatch
  • In the next three to five years, most businesses are expected to undergo tremendous change and disruption due to gen AI. The Staffing Stream
  • 94% of SMBs have experienced at least one cyber attack in the last year, up from 64% in 2019, highlighting a significant rise in cyber threats. Black Arrow Cyber Consulting
  • Cybersecurity threats are top of mind: since 2023, reducing cybersecurity risk is 63% more likely to be a key business goal for SMBs (8% in 2023 vs. 13% in 2024). Yahoo Finance

A framework that describes a 4-phase level of maturity to help determine potential and inform innovation strategy.

autonomous, entrepreneur, SME, augmented reality, quantum computing, 3D
artificial intelligence, SME, company, 5G, entrepreneur, model
SME, entrepreneur, company, bank, digital, consumer
SME, company, entrepreneur, business, GDP, cost
Past Year: More Positive
Compare changing sentiment to a benchmark of all forecasts
By 2030, we envision a world where every business, regardless of scale or sector, harnesses the power of AI and emerging tech to drive transformative change. Small Business UK
Almost a quarter of UK CEOs (and 39% globally) believe their business will not be economically viable within a decade without a vital change of direction. ICAEW
  • Since the decriminalization and subsequent regulation of cannabis in Thailand, the landscape has transformed dramatically, presenting a wealth of opportunities for entrepreneurs and investors. Kush House
  • Malaysia Convention & Exhibition Bureau has announced a fresh collaboration with Centexs Commercial Services, a government-linked company whose mission is to amplify the commercialization value of heritage products and foster opportunities for local entrepreneurs in the state of Sarawak. CMW
  • EU EU budget payments will help the Government of Ukraine in implementing SME SME - related reforms and in carrying out investments in financial support for SMEs SMEs. / Ukraine Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development
  • Government will continue to capitalise the Uganda Development Bank, the Parish Development Model, the Agricultural Credit Facility, and the Small Business Recovery Fund to provide capital for wealth creation. Kampala Dispatch
  • Approximately £145 million of the £150 million deregulatory saving is expected to accrue to SMEs SMEs. GOV.UK
  • Most young farmers taking over the family business will not be eligible for the proposed Canadian entrepreneurs' incentive. SenCanada
  • From new perspectives to different mindsets, women bring a lot of powerful qualities to the world of business, helping spark creativity and disruption and changing the way people work. UNSW Sites
  • The Canadian Entrepreneurs' Incentive will reduce the inclusion rate to 33.3% on a lifetime maximum of $2 million in eligible capital gains. JD Supra
  • GCIP aims to support at least 1,250 SMEs until 2025, of which 35-40% are women-led. Unido
  • With COVID-19 completely changing the business landscape, historical data will no longer be the main driver of AI-based technologies. RIB Software
  • The Small Business Artificial Intelligence Training and Toolkit Act of 2024 will significantly benefit women entrepreneurs by providing access to cutting-edge AI tools and training. U.S. Senate Committee On Commerce, Science, & Transportation
  • 5G technology has the potential to transform supply chain management for Ghana's SMEs by allowing for real-time tracking, monitoring, and optimization of logistical processes.
Financial Impact
With retail eCommerce sales worldwide forecast to reach about 8.1 trillion dollars by 2026, it's never been a better time to start an online business. eFunder
Here's something that might change your mind: in the US alone, business-to-business ecommerce sales are expected to reach $1.8 trillion by the end of 2023. Authority Hacker
Asia SME players are expected to power the B2B scene, projected to reach $13 trillion, making up for 80% of Asia's retail spend. Bitcoin Ethereum News
Click on the dots or the lines to see the connections
System Map
Creates plausible alternative futures of what can happen and encourages development of a robust, agile response
By 2030, damage to the global climate will be irreversible regardless of the ushering in of new technologies and business models. Financial Times
Almost two in five of the bosses of global companies fear their businesses will be unviable within a decade because of the struggle to find talented workers and the need to adapt to technological change. The Guardian
From the droughts that have gripped the world this last year to the catastrophic floods in Pakistan, there is no longer any doubt that climate change is a material threat to communities and businesses around the world. PwC
Changing proportion of published forecasts
Banana farmers across the world need urgent support as climate change and soaring costs threaten their ability to stay in business. Kent Online
Global business leaders are dealing with a challenging array of new and persistent risks that threaten their business models. Insurance Business
Know how others are tackling issues with this topic
As innovative businesses around the world focus on the push to net zero by 2050, it is important to change perceptions of IP ownership and raise awareness of its value to society as a whole. Open Access Government
Imagine a world where the lines between physical and digital reality are blurred - where businesses can interact with digital replicas of their physical machinery and environments, collecting data and enacting change in real time. Industrial Machinery
UK SMEs are at risk of falling behind in the global race for AI adoption. theHRDIRECTOR
Key topics
Investigate what’s transforming or collapsing
Adapting to the new normal of extreme natural disasters, unpredictable weather patterns, and yet-unknown future effects of climate change requires a sustained effort among businesses, industries, and leaders to adopt principles and practices that balance people and planet with profit. Nutraceuticals World
If big businesses and governments do not support SMEs to cut emissions - and quickly - we will ultimately miss the target of halving global emissions by 2030 and fail to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of the climate crisis. Reuters
Indonesia in View 2022 will explore the challenges being faced by local, regional and global streaming services, and what their priorities are around content, localisation and ultimately, business models, for the coming year. Disruptive.Asia
What's Next
Changing proportion of material mentioning future years
By the start of the next decade, our global business with exhaust-gas treatment systems will have doubled from its 2016 level. Bosch
Business Insider's premium research service, has forecasted the start of the IoT's global proliferation in The IoT Forecast Book 2018 - and the next five years will be transformational for consumers, enterprises, and governments. Business Insider
Which nation can prove to have a system to uplift its SME sectors with courage and skills to face the global age of competitiveness? Modern Diplomacy
Should business leaders take a public stance on political and social issues, and how can they drive positive change in their own organizations? FT Women in Business Summit
How can automakers, technology players, and suppliers break out of rigid organizational structures to reimagine roles and business models? Deloitte United States
How will the increasing reliance on AI technologies impact traditional software development processes and business models?
How does vertical business integration across the AI tech stack (chips, cloud, models, and consumer facing products and services) impact competition and innovation? Federal Trade Commission
Rather than How could AI transform business functions and business models from the ground up? MIT OpenCourseWare
Who here would make the most successful entrepreneur? Best Life
What business models make sense, who is going to fund the next wave of facilities, and which end markets hold the most promise? AgFunderNews
Who are the most successful entrepreneurs in the world? StartupTalky
What is the role of Korean SMEs in the global supply chain? The Worldfolio
What new imaginings do we need to inspire individuals, businesses and governments to take meaningful action against climate change and other environmental challenges? Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity
What actions may Tanzanian entrepreneurs take to increase their sales to South Korea? Daily News
What are some of the biggest mistakes companies make when adopting platform-based ecosystem business models? The Innovator
What are the common hurdles encountered when putting analytics to work in a business, both in developing analytical models and applications and in building enterprise analytical capability? International Institute for Analytics
The UN leader wants to talk in Hanoi about climate change policies, but how can Vietnam really move forward when it is busy jailing key civil society partners who are critical to national efforts to stop global warming? The Vietnamese Magazine
Will Chinese e-tailers new business models prove sustainable? The Loadstar
How can company leaders know which digital technologies will yield the most business value, or whether the time is right to invest in making a change? Deloitte Shared Services Conference
How, and where, will finance-smart entrepreneurs gain from AI? Forbes
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