Predictions and a few fantasies about 2018

Welcome to 2018!

I like the serendipity of having a column with the title “The Futurist” run on the first day of the year. This allows me to provide you with forecasts for 2018.

This column is divided into three parts. First, the long-term, macro trends that will continue to affect us in 2018. This is my stock-in-trade: being highly accurate over a five-year timeframe and directionally accurate for 10 years out with macro trends. Second, some forecasts about 2018. These may be more variable in accuracy as they are close-in and specific. Third, my personal fantasy wish list of things I'd like to see happen this year.

Long-term trends that will continue to be manifested in 2018:

• AI/machine learning. While this technology has been around for decades, in the last three years it has finally begun to realize its almost unimaginable possibilities. Not since electricity has there been a technology as transformative of the way we live and work. This trend will accelerate this year.

There will be more technology and services in our lives that provide value because of artificial intelligence. There will be new gadgets, and updates on current ones, such as Alexa and voice search. The debate about AI/machine learning will continue but the technology will continue to develop, so our discussions will move from whether it's good or bad to how to ensure that its outcome will be good.

• Autonomous automobiles. The age of autonomous automobiles begins this year. We will see the sales of driverless cars to communities and then to individuals. Twenty-one states, including Florida, have passed legislation regarding these vehicles. Arizona is leading all states with a ride-sharing test in 2017 using only autonomous automobiles. This is a real case of the future rushing at us.

• The reality of climate change. In July of 2013, I forecast that, starting in 2014, the awareness of climate change would increase and a significant majority of Americans would realize that this huge, existential threat is real. In early 2017, a Yale study showed that 72 percent of all Americans — and the same percentage in our congressional district — accept that climate change is real and due in part to human activity. Only 6 percent believed that “climate change is a hoax.”

In 2017, Congressman Vern Buchanan, R-Fla. — as I noted in an earlier column here — came out in favor of the U.S. remaining in the Paris Climate Accord that President Trump later pulled the U.S. from. Hundreds of billions of dollars were lost due to climate change-amplified severe weather and fires in 2017. Unfortunately, 2018 will see more of the same.

• Blockchain technology. This will continue to increase in long-term importance. This technology could start disintermediation in the financial sector. The cryptocurrency bitcoin is the first application out of the gate of blockchain technology and will continue to be a volatile investment, despite the usefulness of blockchain. I think virtual currencies will continue to be a big story and this will be the year when they start to move from the speculative wild west to a more accepted alternative investment class and form of payment.

Short-term forecasts

• U.S. Politics. Well, this is the big one, in terms of our collective attention. If the Democrats can develop aggressive messaging and If they develop good messaging candidates, then this year could well be one of the largest off-year landslide elections in history. The dual waves of #MeToo and women in revolt against Trump will result in both unprecedented numbers of women candidates at all levels and a record turnout of women voters in November. There will be much higher voter turnout than in past off-year elections.

In Washington, D.C., the narrative will be constant disruption, a probable government shutdown, with the dual storylines of the Mueller investigation and the mid-term elections driving everything.

• Geopolitics. Middle East peace will continue to be an oxymoron. What is going on in Saudi Arabia with Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the most significant development in the region. His attempts to bring the country from the 19th century to the 21st century will have a huge, long-term effect in the region and the world.

In China, President Xi will continue to consolidate power until it approaches the level of Mao's. This will be a delicate game of balancing autocracy with a desire to be the leading global power as the U.S. continues to abdicate its longtime role.

Venezuela is the latest example of Latin America's history of collapsed governments — right wing or, as in this case, socialist. The horrible human toll will continue. In addition to Venezuela, the developments in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico show that they are in danger.

The two key countries in Africa in 2018 will be Yemen and South Africa. Yemen, of course, is a war zone bringing death and starvation. In South Africa, the new leader of the African National Congress will be watched to see if the endemic corruption since Nelson Mandela that has infected the party — and, therefore, the government — can be reversed.

Brexit will, by the end of 2018, be looked at as more of a probable success than it is now.

Lastly, North Korea will continue to threaten world peace. The escalation of tension makes this the most dangerous short-term threat to America

• Economics. The U.S. markets and gross national product will continue to grow in the first part of the year. It is the second part of the year that could see some correction, contraction or financial disruption as we move into 2019. Earnings may continue to rise, but geopolitics and government gridlock could have an effect.

Wishful thinking

If I could wave a magic wand to make any change I want in 2018, here are some things I would welcome:

• A publicly funded, FBI-administered lie-detector agency. Anyone willing to pay $25 can take a lie-detector test with the results made public. Harvey Weinstein maintains his innocence. Wouldn't people know with certainty how seriously to take that if many of the women who have accused him of sexual harassment or abuse would take a lie-detector test and release the results? Public opinion would be even more withering than it is.

Roy Moore claimed all his women accusers were lying. Well, Roy, take a public lie detector test — your accusers have. If a politician makes a false claim, his or her constituents could request he or she take a lie-detector test. If a politician calls something “fake news,” a journalist could take a lie-detector test.

Now, this is something that could and would only be allowed in public or private discourse and not be run by a government agency. It would be completely open to all. Why do I wish for this? Because it would inevitably stem the vast amount of lying going on. It would make accusers accountable, politicians and journalists more honest and make everyone think twice before accusing someone or lying.

• Fines for using the words “us” and “them” when speaking about fellow Americans. A dollar fine for every time someone speaks in a polarizing way about any other group that is also American. Wouldn’t it be nice if we all could put commonality above separateness, at least for a year, to see what it feels like?

• A world-wide move from the pursuit of personal triumph to collective compassion.

Wouldn’t it be nice?

Sarasota resident David Houle is a globally recognized futurist. He has given speeches on six continents, written seven books and is futurist in residence at the Ringling College of Art + Design. His website is davidhoule.com. Email him at david@davidhoule.com.