Well, OK, so perhaps I exaggerate. But only just.
Americans should be alarmed at the new poll showing leftist-populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a former Mexico City mayor also known by the acronym AMLO (for his initials), with a commanding 18-point lead and 38 percent support in the presidential election that takes place July 1.
Mexicans should be even more alarmed, of course, that a leftist who hesitated last May to criticize the human rights record of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro should be this close to ruling their country. But Americans have a lot to lose as well. President Trump, having stoked tensions with our southern neighbor, may get more than he bargained for if Mexican voters choose a far-left government headed by the man who lost and then famously refused to concede the 2006 general election.
Although Lopez Obrador has said he supports the North American Free Trade Agreement in principle, it’s anyone’s guess how he would handle negotiations. And in a Mexico under Lopez Obrador but without NAFTA, American companies with substantial investments in Mexico — for example, the natural gas industry, which has been exporting increasing volumes to our south — could face some serious legal uncertainty. AMLO has already promised to revisit oil contracts, as Yahoo News reports, and that doesn’t inspire confidence.
Unfortunately, the opposition to AMLO is badly divided. At first, it seemed unity would prevail to block him. The possibility of his winning, combined with dissatisfaction with the revival of the PRI party (which had ruled Mexico alone in a one-party state for about 80 years until 2000), prompted the nation’s main center-right party, PAN, to enter an unlikely alliance with two left-wing parties, PRD and MC, that had backed AMLO in 2006.
The alliance agreed to nominate and support former PAN President Ricardo Anaya Cortes. But this alliance doesn’t seem to command the Left’s loyalty, judging by the polls, and it has also helped split the Right. The alliance was part of the argument given by former First Lady Margarita Zavala, wife of former President Felipe Calderon, when she quit the PAN to run as a conservative independent. Zavala currently polls in fourth place with 13 percent of the vote, behind Anaya at 20 percent and the PRI’s Jose Antonio Meade at 16 percent.
The U.S. and Mexico have gained a great deal from the economic partnership they’ve enjoyed over the last quarter-century. The U.S. is the largest market for Mexico’s exports, and Mexico imports more from the U.S. than from any other country.
Another consideration: Mexico’s strong economic growth in recent years had mostly mooted the question of new illegal Mexican immigration to the U.S. Most new illegal migrants crossing the southern border today come from Central America. But that could change. The sudden implosion of Mexico’s economy under a politician frequently compared to Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez could undo all of that progress, resulting in a massive migrant or refugee outflow to the United States unlike anything we’ve seen before.
The first nationally televised debate between the candidates will be April 22. The winner of this year’s election will serve a single six-year term.
