Surge in Emerging Market Cities
What is changing?
- Standard population projections show that virtually all global growth over the next 30 years will be in urban areas.
- 70% of people will live in cities by 2050.
- By mid-century almost 60 per cent of Africa's population will live in cities.
- There will be about 40 smart cities globally by 2025.
- Urban growth will not be primarily in the major cities
- By 2025 no less than 45% of businesses on Fortune 's Global 500 list of the world's biggest companies will be based in emerging markets.
- There will be 60 megacities-more than double the current number of urban behemoths-where GDP will exceed $250 billion.
- About 440 emerging market cities will provide 47 per cent of expected global GDP growth between 2010 and 2025 amid a wave of urbanisation in developing countries.
- Tier 1 cities in the coastal provinces will be characterized by much lower growth rates, replacement demand, and rising price points.
- Many of today's tier 1 cities will evolve into mega demand centres.
- Nearly 40 percent of ASEAN's GDP growth through 2025 is expected to come from 142 cities with populations between 200,000 and 5 million.
- Some city planners expect that the cost of homes will fall as more space will become available in cities.
- Driverless cars will generate a gradual but dramatic expansion of cities.
- There will be more EV drivers in Hangzhou than anywhere in the world and other Chinese cities will almost certainly adopt the technology quickly.
- Drone networks will be more likely to find success in congested rich cities.
- 'Green' will be replaced with 'Smart' concepts that bring together smart cities, products and technologies.
- Over the coming decades the predicted surge in urban population will create many challenges for decision-makers around the world.
- Cities will need to develop and implement the infrastructure needed for supporting the most efficient modal choices.
- Smart cities will only become a reality when local authority visions for the future are reflected in procurement practises and scoring criteria for contracts issued today.
- Smart cities in 2020 will require real time auto identification security systems.
- Network grids that control traffic lights, railroad crossings and toll bridges could become prime targets for terrorists or hackers looking to extort money from governments or individuals.
- Urbanization as a trend will have diverging impacts and influences on future personal lives and mobility.
- The rise in the world's consumer classes carries challenges and that rising wealth could put further upward pressure on the global investment rate and resource prices.
- Smart cities could be cross-classified by strategies, scales, motivations (social, economic or ecological).
- Significantly reducing urban road congestion and improving the financial and environmental sustainability of urban transport will bring major benefits for the economy.
- Investment in all cost effective measures will save billions in energy costs per year.
- Cities could be a valuable new source of investment which would help maximise the benefits to the UK from generation subsidies.
- Delivering the goods and services cities need in a resource constrained world is going to present significant challenges.
- Worldwide revenue from communication nodes for smart cities will grow from $2 billion in 2014 to $3.55 billion in 2020.
To find more resources on Shaping Tomorrow about the future of cities some of which were used in this Trend Alert. View Cities report.
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