Process and Design

• Approaches such as eco-design will play a significant role in maintaining the use of products, components and materials and retaining their value.
• Resource scarcity and higher costs for energy and waste disposal will shift manufacturing value creation to new models.
• Advances in lightweight materials, additive manufacturing, frugal innovation, and the so-called circular economy will change how manufacturers use metals and other materials and raise resource productivity and efficiency.

Taxes

• Shifting taxes would accelerate the transition to a circular economy and help balance the threat of losing jobs in a digitised economy.

Europe

• The call on Industry 2020 in the Circular Economy (€669 million) will contribute to boosting and renewing Europe's industrial capacities while ensuring sustainability.
• International cooperation with strategic partner countries and global technology leaders will support European energy and climate objectives and contribute to the global efforts to mitigate climate change and reduce CO2 emissions.
•  Pledging to cut food waste by 33 per cent by 2025 will put Scotland at the forefront of global action to tackle food waste.

Environment

• 15 to 25 tonnes of plastic marine debris could be prevented annually by finding an alternative to current dolly rope design.
• Reusable plastics could become a valuable commodity in a 'circular economy' that relied on recycling.
• Applying circular economy principles to global plastic packaging flows could transform the plastics economy and drastically reduce negative externalities such as leakage into oceans.
• Circular waste management could reduce a nations CO2 emissions by 15 to 20%.

Economy

• A circular economy could trigger a large innovation drive across sectors of the economy because of the need to redesign materials and products for circular use.
• An estimated $4.5 trillion in economic growth could be unlocked by 2030 if companies and society switches from a linear economy to a circular economy.
• Transitioning to a circular economy model in fast-moving consumer goods alone could yield net material cost savings of more than USD 600 billion per year globally.
• In a business-as-usual scenario, new technologies and business models could help add €0.9 trillion worth of value to the European economy by 2030 through increased resource productivity and reduced costs.
• Recovering just 60% of waste materials could create 13,000 jobs and contribute $1.5 billion in gross domestic product in Ontario.
• A circular economy would mitigate risks associated with the supply of raw materials.
• A circular economy in the Netherlands could yield economic opportunities of €7 billion per year and 50,000 jobs.
• A business-as-usual scenario for plastics will also bring growth, innovation and benefits, but if circular economy principles guide and inspire this growth and innovation, the sum of the benefits will be larger.
• A circular economy in London could be worth at least £7 billion every year by 2036 in the built environment, food, textiles, electricals and plastics sectors alone.

Recycling

• Remanufacturing could represent up to €90B annually and 600,000 jobs by 2030.
• The continued development of resource-efficient business activity, such as recycling, reuse and remanufacturing, could create demand for over 200,000 new jobs across Britain between now and 2030.
• Re-usable plastics could become a valuable commodity in a 'circular economy' that relied on recycling.
• A circular economy could mean new rules for product design.
• Transitioning to a circular economy model in fast-moving consumer goods alone could yield net material cost savings of more than USD 600 billion per year globally.
• Recovery of precious metals from electronics could increase financial and natural capital benefits by $10 billion.
• After-use plastics could be turned into valuable feedstock.
• New tagging and tracking technologies could enable manufacturers and retailers to aggregate what is currently perceived as low-value packaging waste in more economically-appealing volumes.
• On-site recycling could cut down on various transport and shipping costs.
• Improved durability and reparability of products will bring substantial benefits to consumers.
• Reuse and reduction will ensure that firms can 'future-proof' their 'growth agendas'.

Drivers

Circular economy · jobs · materials · waste · plastics · resource · emissions · growth · business models · metals · climate change · design · recycling · remanufacturing

Athena's forecast (robot generated from verbatim forecasts)

• Start year: Ongoing
• Likely Tipping point: 2020
• Likely End year: 2030
• Likely Impact $: Trillions
• Likelihood: 95%
• Regions affected: Global
• Most affected sectors: Manufacturing, Food and agriculture, Retail, Energy, Water, Consumer goods, Government

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