Global Scans · Turkey · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

• [New] A: S&P forecasts average CPI inflation of 29.3% in Turkey for 2026, up from its previous forecast of 23.4% before global geopolitical tensions. Property Turkey
• [New] A: S&P currently forecasts 3.4% GDP growth in Turkey through 2026, after GDP growth of 3.6% in 2025 was recorded. Property Turkey
• [New] S&P's own forecast puts Turkey's nominal GDP at $1.66 trillion USD in 2026, rising to $2.23 trillion USD by 2029. Property Turkey
• [New] Turkey's nominal GDP is projected by S&P at $1.66 trillion USD in 2026 and above $2.2 trillion USD by 2029. Property Turkey
• [New] The IMF forecasts Turkey's 2026 growth at 3.4%. Property Turkey
• [New] Turkey's behaviour reflects an effort to maximize autonomy and pursue new opportunities without forfeiting the benefits it accrues from its existing ties. GIS Reports
• [New] Europe's decision to move against Turkey risks pushing Ankara further away from the Western sphere and toward alternative alliances, including Russia and China, thereby accelerating the fragmentation of the global order and weakening NATO cohesion at a time when it is already under strain. Armstrong Economics
• [New] Once geopolitical tensions ignite, they do not remain contained, and what we are now witnessing is the steady expansion of conflict lines as Turkey is being recast from a strategic NATO partner into a geopolitical threat by the very alliance it once helped anchor. Armstrong Economics
• [New] As the Iran war has spread, missiles and drones have been fired toward NATO member Turkey and a British military base on Cyprus, fueling speculation about what might prompt NATO to trigger its collective security guarantee and come to their rescue. 95.5 WSB
• [New] Turkey's central bank is expected to keep rates on hold at 37.0% for a second straight meeting. Brown Brothers Harriman
• [New] Dutch lender ING expects Turkey's central bank to hold interest rates steady in April and has raised its 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 27.5% from the previous 25.5%, pointing to mounting risks from energy costs and Iran war-driven geopolitical tensions. Turkiye Today
• [New] Turkey will continue to be one of the EBRD's largest markets. P.A. Turkey
• [New] The European Parliament's Committee on Foreign Affairs warns that Turkey's EU accession process cannot move forward without democratic reforms, as shortcomings related to the rule of law and fundamental rights remain unaddressed. 2eu.brussels
• [New] Shifting geopolitical dynamics, particularly in the Middle East, could further enhance Turkey's role as a relatively safe haven for investment. P.A. Turkey
• [New] International investors are expected to keep Turkey firmly on their radar despite heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty. P.A. Turkey
• [New] If European leaders move beyond statements of concern and utilize their significant economic influence, they could create an environment in which the Turkish electorate views a transition to the center-right as an economic necessity for national recovery, not just a political preference. Turkish Minute
• [New] The IMF expects average inflation in Turkey to be 28.6% in 2026 before easing to 21.4% in 2027. Turkish Minute
• [New] TB3 supply chains will become embedded in European defence industrial infrastructure, making future sanctions or export restrictions on Turkish drone technology less effective as a coercive lever. Drone Warfare
• [New] As pressure on opposition parties intensifies and legal risks mount, analysts argue Turkey may be entering a new political phase where competitive elections are no longer viable. P.A. Turkey
• [New] A prolonged conflict could further deteriorate Turkey's external debt servicing capacity and inflation outlook. Atlas Think Center
• [New] Turkey's strategic positioning - which enables it to talk with both America and Iran, alongside strengthening ties with Pakistan - could provide leverage in mediation efforts. European Council on Foreign Relations
• [New] The United States will withdraw from NATO in order to side with Israel in the event of its war with Turkey. EADaily

Last updated: 27 April 2026