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WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

  • [New] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently threatened to block Finland and Sweden's Nato bid over arms export restrictions imposed on Turkey. Middle East Eye
  • [New] Western leaders have expressed confidence that Ankara's objections will not be a road block for the NATO accession process of the Nordic countries without spelling out how Turkey's position could be changed. Reuters
  • [New] Turkey could hold up NATO bids: Turkey's foreign minister said it is unacceptable for countries that want to become NATO members to impose defense export restrictions and support organizations that threaten Turkey. CNN
  • [New] Progress on Finland and Sweden's Nato membership bids will only be possible if concrete steps are taken to address Turkey's national security concerns. The Guardian
  • [New] U.S. President Joe Biden and top officials from his administration repeated that they are confident Ankara's objection will not be a roadblock for the accession process of the Nordic countries, even though they did not spell out how Turkey's position could be changed. The Japan Times
  • [New] Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf states have the potential to dramatically destabilize Iraq through their responses to Iranian activities there. Institute for the Study of War
  • [New] Sweden and Finland's expected bid to join NATO could further boost Turkish influence if the concerns raised by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who noted his objection to possible Swedish and Finnish membership in the US-led alliance, could be addressed. Al-Monitor: The Pulse of the Middle East
  • [New] Sweden should not expect Turkey to approve its bid unless it returned terrorists, Kurdish militants and followers of Fethullah Gulen, and Swedish and Finnish delegations should not come to Turkey to convince it otherwise. Reuters
  • [New] What Turkey perceives as threat of PKK is the core national security concern in Turkey.
  • [New] A top Turkish politician has expressed concerns that Finland and Sweden's membership could provoke Russia and inflame the war in Ukraine. AP News
  • [New] Turkey's Travel & Tourism's GDP is forecasted to grow at an average rate of 5.5% annually between over the next decade, more than twice the 2.5% growth rate of country's overall economy. Hotel News Resource
  • [New] There are stronger odds that Turkey will ultimately lean West because it is desperate for American and European investment - even more so if the war in Ukraine escalates and Russian sanctions get tougher. GZERO Media
  • [New] Though Turkey has officially supported Nato enlargement since it joined the US-led alliance 70 years ago, its opposition could pose a problem for Sweden and Finland given new members need unanimous agreement. DAWN.COM
  • [New] Turkey prefers its own interests to its commitments to NATO, and the risk of global consequences of the war in Ukraine has forced it, by following the German model, to think more of its own interests than NATO. Al-Bawaba
  • Turkey and Pakistan are two strategically important states with important roles, which have great opportunities and potential to deliver their objectives. Pakistan Today
  • If the Strategic Mechanism is to help Turkey and the United States engage more deeply and enhance practical cooperation, something will have to be done in tandem to mitigate the poisoning effects of bilateral disagreements. Carnegie Europe
  • The rate of refugee return from Turkey to northern Syria has been less than what Turkey had hoped for. Carnegie Middle East Center
  • Any assault by Russian forces on Syrian rebels holed up on the Turkish border could trigger an exodus of refugees into Turkey. Ankara Tightens Russian Access to Syria
  • Turkey will continue to do its part in establishing peace in Ukraine and send humanitarian aid. Daily Sabah
  • Turkey's position on the Russia-Ukraine war appears to have improved its relations with its Western allies which might positively affect foreign finance and investment flows. Chatham House
  • Last week, Turkey's central bank forecast annual inflation would peak at around 70% by June before declining to near 43% by year's end and into single digits by the end of 2024. ABC News
  • If the flights from Russia are restored and they return to their normal routine, Ukraine will be Turkey's only loss in tourism.
  • While trust between the security services in Washington and Ankara is near zero, Turkey hopes to improve political and military relations with Europe and the United States by playing a key role in the Ukraine crisis. Al-Bawaba

Last updated: 23 May 2022