Turkey

WHAT'S NEXT?: Uncertainties over Turkey's eventual political position abound. With EU decisions in doubt, recent crackdown on opposition parties causing concerns, and being embroiled in complex Middle East politics and fighting terrorism on its borders and internally, which way will she swing?

• Argentina and Iran are expected to emerge from recessions in 2020, and prospects are expected to improve for five countries other than Russia that struggled with slowdowns in 2019: Brazil, India, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
• Growth in Turkey slowed sharply to nil percent in 2019, but is expected to strengthen to 3 percent in 2020 as investment recovers from the deep contraction of last year.
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has hit back against US threats to impose sanctions on the TurkStream pipeline that is set to deliver Russian gas to Turkey and further to southern and southeastern Europe starting next year.
• Regional growth is projected to strengthen in 2020, to 2.6 percent, as activity recovers in Turkey and Russia, and to stabilize to 2.9 percent in 2021-22.
• A ny hope of global growth increasing this year depends on countries such as Argentina, Iran and Turkey, the World Bank has warned after it predicted a deepening slowdown in the West.
• Turkey warned Washington on Monday that Turkey will seek alternatives if Washington does not end its embargo on the sale of the F-35 jet.
• When TAP is finished next year, the Southern Gas Corridor will supply 6 billion cubic meters of Azeri gas to Turkey and 10 billion cubic meters to Europe.
• With an investment of around $7 billion, TANAP will deliver 6 billion cubic meters of Azeri gas to Turkey and 10 billion to Europe per year.
• In 2020, a cyclical upswing in a number of countries recently affected by financial stress and other idiosyncratic headwinds (Turkey, South Africa, and countries in Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa) should particularly contribute to the expected uptick in global growth outside the EU.
• Russia's has other pipeline development projects due for completion by the end of 2020, such as TurkStream, taking gas to Turkey, and Nord Stream 2, which will double Russian gas volumes to Germany.
• Turkey, Russia, and even the United States in the coming years will all be vulnerable to domestic turbulence and each inevitably will encounter crises in their foreign relations.
• Turkey is projected to return to growth in the second half of 2019, although a mild contraction is expected for the year as a whole.
• For the region as a whole, growth is then expected to recover somewhat in 2020 as the economy gains momentum in Turkey and Russia.
• In 2019, average GDP growth in developing countries could fall below 4.0 per cent, amid lingering fragilities in Argentina, Brazil and South Africa, and weaker economic conditions in Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
• Economic growth in the EBRD regions is broadly expected to track the global economy lower in 2019, before a likely upturn in 2020, when Turkey should return to positive territory following a contraction this year.
• Turkey will take control of the prisons and Islamic State prisoners, which contain fighters from all over the world who traveled to Syria to join the militant group.
• Brazil, China, and Turkey have already seen sharp drops in fertility: Brazil's youthful population is projected to decline by 5 million by 2030; China's will drop by 75 million; Turkey's is expected to decline slightly by 2030.
• China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Mexico, South Korea and the U.S. are among the countries where significant expansion of the wind sector is expected in the next decade or so.
• Annual GDP growth in the Emerging Europe region as a whole is forecast to decelerate from +3.1% in 2018 to +1.7% in 2019, before picking up to +2.3% in 2020, mirroring the performances of the largest economies, Russia and Turkey.
• Global automotive production decelerated in 2018 and is expected to contract in 2019 with recession deepening and broadening across several major markets including Germany, Turkey, China and South Korea.
• Overall growth in EMEs will likely improve by 2020 as Turkey emerges from recession and as country - specific challenges dissipate in India and Latin America: the escalation in trade tensions is expected to continue to disrupt trade and weigh on growth in emerging Asia over the projection horizon.
• American troops will not physically monitor the temporary ceasefire in northeastern Syria between NATO ally Turkey and the Kurdish-dominated militia that the United States has backed in recent years to fight the Islamic State in that country.
• Growth of steel demand in the emerging economies excluding China is expected to slow down to 0.4% in 2019 due to contractions in Turkey, MENA and Latin America.

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Last updated: 17 February 2020