Russia

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] As the 2020 presidential election draws closer, advanced persistent threat actors operating with tacit backing from the Russian government are ramping up cyber attacks on organisations in the US right on schedule.
• [New] Though Kaliningrad would likely remain under Russian control absent larger civic unrest within Russia itself, the removal of a serious risk to NATO's section of the North European Plain beyond medium - to long-range missile strikes would offer significant insulation to European security.
• [New] Russia's Ministry of Energy has announced plans to expand its total coal production from around 420 mtpa to 480 mtpa by 2030.
• [New] Over the next five years, Russia's metallurgical coal exports are projected to grow to 36 million tonnes in 2025, driven by new additions to mining capacity, and by rail and port expansions.
• [New] While the Soviet economy was roughly half the size of the U.S. economy at the peak of its power, the Chinese economy will be close to twice the size of the U.S. economy by the end of the decade.
• [New] Germany would risk becoming dependent on Russia by completing Nord Stream 2, a controversial 1,225 km (760-mile) gas pipeline owned by Russia's Gazprom.
• [New] Russian gas production declined in the first half of the year, but plenty of other capacity could be made available when demand recovers, effectively capping European prices for the coming years.
• The rapid expansion in global LNG supply capacity seen over the last few years is expected to continue in 2020, driven by the continued ramp up of new operations in the US, Australia and Russia.
• The first regions to phase out are the OECD, Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union countries - by 2031, followed by Latin America by 2032, Middle East and Africa by 2034, and finally non-OECD Asia by 2037, completing a global coal phase-out before 2040.
• Turkey's import contract for Algerian liquefied natural gas expires in 2024, for Russian pipeline gas through Blue Stream in 2025, and for Iranian pipeline gas in 2026.
• Blocked from exporting gas from Russia, Lukoil has been betting on its gas projects in neighboring Uzbekistan, where it has invested as much as $10 billion in the hope of making returns from exports to China.
• China is a long-term challenge that will rise above the Russian threat in the next decade or so, especially in the light of the expected collapse of Russia in many areas.
• In the next two years, the U.S. military expects to give soldiers in ground vehicles their own lasers that can shoot down missiles, demonstrate that sailors can knock down ICBMs with missiles fired from surface ships, and stand up two new counter-Russian missile defense sites in Eastern Europe.
• Russia has become more resilient to external shocks since 2014, but the dual shock of collapsed global oil prices and deteriorating domestic demand amid the coronavirus outbreak will result in an economic contraction of 6.1% in 2020.
• The 55 Bcm a year pipeline is crucial to Russia's plans to scale down from 2021 the use of the Ukrainian transit corridor in its gas supplies to Europe.
• Russia scored a victory for its ally Syria on Saturday by forcing the Security Council to limit humanitarian aid deliveries to the country's mainly rebel-held northwest to just one crossing point from Turkey, a move that Western nations say will cut a lifeline for 1.3 million people.
• Should the pandemic in Russia drag on and oil prices remain low, Putin could face economics-based protests from the population and competition from other elites in the near future.
• Russia's national security strategy describes NATO as a threat to the national security of the Russian Federation, and clearly states that Russia will use every means at its disposal to achieve its strategic goals.
• The U.S. and its NATO partners should at once prepare and announce a package of economic sanctions that will be imposed if Russian conventional forces enter Belarus, and an additional package if Russia establishes military bases there.
• As there are only a handful of relevant space powers (the United States, Russia, China, EU, Japan, and India), ad hoc agreements or codes of conduct among them, rather than a cumbersome UN framework, might be a more practical pathway to build global norms.
• Russia, China and Iran will all try to interfere in the 2020 US presidential election, noting in particular that Russia is attempting to primarily denigrate presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
• The Missile Defense Agency will receive USD 10.4 billion, including USD 108 million for the creation of a space sensor system to track hypersonic and ballistic missiles and the development of a sensor array to counteract the hypersonic missile systems of Russia and China.
• The Russian Federation was constantly improving methods of using such an integrated group in combat conditions in eastern Ukraine, in Syria and Libya, and the Caucasus 2020 drills will be the next stage in the increased training of the Russian aggressor forces.

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Last updated: 19 September 2020