Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] In time of war, countries are expected to follow well-recognized rules, even if not universally respected and often obnoxiously breached (e.g., the Russian war against Ukraine), there are well-established legal limits to the use of force under the guise of national security. Policy Magazine
• [New] As announced in the 2018 NPR, new low-yield, sea-launched cruise missiles will be developed and submarine-based ballistic missiles equipped with low-yield nuclear warheads. / Russia Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] To make clear to Russia that winning a war by escalating will not work, the US needs discriminate nuclear options that can be credibly threatened and executed. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] The lack of credible options could mean that NATO would be forced to end the war rather than risk a massive nuclear exchange should Russia resort to using a few tactical nuclear weapons. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• [New] Ukraine is containing the Russian drone threat at current levels of damage while Russia is currently unable to stop Ukraine from increasing its level of damage. Sarcastosaurus
• [New] If Ukraine's cruise missiles become effective with higher numbers being deployed and with more accurate navigation, Russian interceptor drones will not be effective against them. Sarcastosaurus
• [New] If Russia overcomes the funding, personnel, sensor destruction, command and control and geography challenges they will be able to increase their interception of Ukraine's long-ranged drones to some degree, but they are unlikely to be entirely successful. Sarcastosaurus
• [New] Russia's only hope is to replicate Ukraine's drone interception teams. Sarcastosaurus
• [New] Russia's eastern export routes are already operating at full capacity, meaning that while existing sales will be lucrative, increasing exports to take advantage of high prices will remain difficult. Crisis24
• [New] The panel Canadian governments could learn from Sweden's approach to defending itself from Russia's increasingly brazen tactics. National Newswatch
• [New] Threat perceptions concerning Russia, compounded by uncertainties over the USA's commitment to defending its European allies, have boosted demand for arms among European member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Sipri
• [New] Russia's information operations apparatus will likely attempt to seed doubt among potential Ukrainian export partners about the reliability of Kiev's vetting process, framing any export deal as a proliferation risk to discourage partner-nation uptake. Drone Warfare
• [New] Nato expansion, specifically Nato expansion into Ukraine, represents not merely a threat but a mortal threat to Russia's very status as an imperialist power. Counterfire
• [New] Equally worrying is the slippery slope of AI which could lead to its integration into US, Russian and Chinese nuclear weapon systems, stimulated by competition, mutual insecurity and the extremely short decision-making time-frame. Pearls and Irritations
• [New] If a new nuclear arms race begins between the US and Russia, the US could upload 800 bombs and cruise missiles stored at military bases back onto B-2 and B-52 bombers in a matter of weeks. Pearls and Irritations
• [New] Russia's spring offensive is underway and is likely to generate incremental territorial gains on the eastern front, but Ukraine's expanded use of unmanned systems will continue to limit the pace and scale of Russian advances. Crisis24
• [New] Russia's energy revenues and battlefield adaptation will help Moscow absorb continued losses, even as Ukrainian strikes constrain parts of its export infrastructure. Crisis24
• [New] Repeated attacks, particularly on Baltic Sea oil export infrastructure, are projected to reduce the daily volume of Russian oil and petroleum products shipped from Russian ports in the short to medium term. Crisis24
• [New] A very reasonable scenario is that Russian President Vladimir Putin could use Gotland to test NATO by trying to take a thin sliver of alliance territory to probe the collective reaction. WHEC.com

Last updated: 23 May 2026