Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russian forces are reportedly using a new type of warhead on waiter drones to threaten the ground lines of communication in Kherson Oblast that Ukrainian forces have tried to protect with netting. Critical Threats
• [New] The risks to nuclear and radiation safety are being exacerbated by the incompetent actions of Russian administrators. Electricity Info
• [New] There have been two gas price shocks in four years, caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Electricity Info
• [New] North Korean support could help shield Russia's petrochemical supply chains from future Ukrainian strikes but is unlikely to alleviate Russian fuel shortages in the short term. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] ISW continues to assess that the addition of more North Korean missiles to Russia's arsenal will allow Russia to intensify its ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine in the near future without having to dip into its S-400 and Zirkon missile stocks. Ukraine's Arms Monitor
• [New] The aggressive re-weaponisation of energy, which Russia's most recent assault against Ukraine has shone a spotlight upon, further reinforces that hydrocarbons like oil and gas remain both a source of geopolitical leverage and a vulnerability for energy security. Hitachi Energy
• [New] Russia's recruitment challenges and high casualties will likely force Putin to make a difficult decision about conducting some form of mobilization to augment volunteer recruitment by the end of the year. Critical Threats
• [New] Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and Iran-related disruptions have spotlighted that constraint. investing.com
• [New] Ongoing disruptions tied to Iran, the Russia-Ukraine war, and continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure are keeping product markets tight. investing.com
• [New] Governments are aware that as ice melts in the coming decades, transit seasons could extend and additional routes can open up, such as a potential trans-polar route that avoids Russian coastlines altogether. CNN
• [New] Russia was launching its own version of the Starlink satellite network, called Rassvet, ahead of schedule, with 16 satellites now up and a planned increase to 292 in 2027. Al Jazeera
• [New] Russia will use its parliamentary election next month as a pretext to declare a new mobilization. Al Jazeera
• [New] Russian forces aim to destroy Ukraine's water supply and that surviving Russia's winter energy infrastructure strikes will become harder without water or sewage services amid power outages. Critical Threats
• [New] The Kremlin had previously stated that Rassvet will begin commercial operations in 2027, and Militarnyi estimated that Russia could secure 24/7 connectivity over Ukraine by mid-summer 2027. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia will introduce year-round conscription for compulsory military service starting next year. Militarnyi
• [New] North Korea is escalating its support for Russia's war in Ukraine and will likely aid Russian efforts to intensify ballistic missile attacks against Ukraine. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] The United States and its allies should tailor deterrence and risk reduction efforts to Russian and Chinese threat perceptions. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
• [New] The drone incidents across Europe have renewed concerns that Russia's war in Ukraine could increasingly affect neighbouring NATO states. Al Jazeera
• [New] Most Russians will only be allowed to use crypto assets as investment instruments, as using them to make payments inside Russia will remain prohibited. Central Banking
• [New] Trade between India and Russia reached a record USD 68.69 billion in FY 2025-26, and both governments have set a public target of USD 100 billion by 2030, with mutual investment of USD 50 billion. Mercurius
• Russia plans to significantly increase the use of jet-powered strike drones in air attacks on Ukraine - their share could reach 50%. Militarnyi
• Countering Russia's threats with Tomahawk deployments, is stabilizing. Hudson Institute

Last updated: 22 August 2026