Russia

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

[New] For Russia, Nord Stream 1 - and more specifically the Nord Stream 2 expansion project inaugurated the following year - will increase its supply of gas to the EU region to 55 billion cubic metres per year.
US oil production growth will slow down by as much as 50% in 2020, even as some new offshore projects that have been commissioned recently pick up the slack coupled with the remarkably disciplined production cuts that OPEC and Russia have delivered in the past couple years.
No matter how dramatic last year may have been, global efforts, including by the EU, the United States, China and Russia, will be needed to maintain international order and peace this year.
For LNG exporters, the bad news is China's rising domestic production plus the launch of a new pipeline that will send 38 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia to China by 2024.
2020 will see more government efforts to reclaim the Internet, with China, Russia and Iran continuing to take technical control over the Internet in their countries.
Regional growth is projected to strengthen in 2020, to 2.6 percent, as activity recovers in Turkey and Russia, and to stabilize to 2.9 percent in 2021-22.
Expect some volatility in the markets as OPEC countries and Russia discuss oil output in 2020.
In accordance with the results obtained, under the scenarios of anthropogenic emissions considered, the natural emissions from the Russian regions will also accelerate climate warming on the short time horizons under the climate conditions of the second half of the 21st century.
As oil prices approach $70 / bbl, Rystad Energy expects that a short-lived price rally through the first half of 2020 will then lose momentum and be replaced by a need for additional production cuts by Russia and OPEC.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that the first set of anti-aircraft missile system S - 350 Vityaz will be delivered to the duty station in January of the coming year.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has hit back against US threats to impose sanctions on the TurkStream pipeline that is set to deliver Russian gas to Turkey and further to southern and southeastern Europe starting next year.
The dynamic to watch will be whether Russia and Saudi Arabia will come to an agreement on crude production levels in the early and middle parts of next year.
Oil prices edged higher as Russia said a producer group led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may consider easing output cuts next year, helping cap optimism that the US-China trade deal will be signed soon and spur demand.
Growth of the Russian GDP for 2019 is expected to be 1.2%, while the Russia Trading System Index demonstrated notable growth from around 1,100 points at the start of the year to around 1,500 by year's end.
President Trump has said the 1,225 km (760-mile) pipeline, owned by Russia's Gazprom, could turn Germany into a hostage of Russia.
Greater U.S. oil production-increasing to 19 million barrels a day by 2030 - is expected to decrease the share of the global oil market held by OPEC members and Russia to 47 percent in 2030 from 55 percent in the mid-2000s.
By 2025, U.S. shale oil and natural gas production is expected to overtake total oil and natural gas production in Russia.
Russia's state-owned energy giant Gazprom exported 202 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe in 2018, which is far greater than the 4.6 BCM of gas that it expects to ship in 2020.
Russian oil and gas will remain competitive due to the size of its eastern onshore fields, output from which will increasingly replace falling production from the West Siberian fields.
Apart from plans for two new small melamine plants in Russia, scheduled to be online 2021 onwards, and a new plant in India coming online in 2019, no other changes to the global make-up are expected.
Russia is a relatively mature mobile market, with a unique subscriber penetration rate of 89% at the end of 2018 - a figure that will remain broadly unchanged to 2025.
During 2020, Russian oil output will depend on the rate of production decline at existing brownfield sites, the launch of new projects, increases in production at greenfield sites and the duration of the Opec + deal.

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Last updated: 15 February 2020