Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a reckless policy that accepts the risk of Russian drones entering European and NATO airspace as an acceptable consequence of its strikes in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] Authorities in Russia's Pskov region have declared a UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) threat, leading to the closure of Pskov Airport to both arriving and departing flights. Caliber.az
• [New] The newly announced unmanned systems regiments will be subordinate to the Russian Navy and appear to be separate from USF, which has operated in support of Russian ground forces in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia will hold the largest conscription for military service in 14 years. Militarnyi
• [New] Russia's energy strategy includes plans for 38 new nuclear power units with a combined capacity of 29.3 GW and a 25% share of generation from nuclear by 2045. Last Week in ConTech
• [New] Russia could provide satellite and military expertise while China could offer access to communications infrastructure, technology and a broader overseas presence. UPI
• [New] Russian assistance could help North Korea build a group of reconnaissance satellites capable of monitoring South Korea, Japan and U.S. military facilities more frequently. UPI
• [New] The strikes on Russia's Amazon, which have included facilities in the Moscow and St. Petersburg regions and in Krasnodar in southern Russia, are causing billions of rubles in losses and threatening hundreds of small businesses. gCaptain
• [New] We are likely to anticipate a request for air defences, especially additional Patriot systems and interceptor missiles now that Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukrainian cities, including on Ukrainian citizens. Center for Strategic and International Studies
• [New] Proposed tariffs are refined from the original blanket 500% proposal to tariffs of up to 100% on the world's top five purchasers of Russian crude oil/natural gas (China and India expected to be among them) and top facilitators of sanctions evasion, reassessed by USTR every 180 days. Corn Refiners Association
• [New] Russian forces have been taking advantage of Ukraine's depleted stocks of Patriot missile interceptors in recent weeks to maximize the destructive potential of their strike packages. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia's economy held up better than many expected despite Western sanctions after Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine. Newsday
• [New] The National Security Agency published an advisory alongside CISA and international partners warning that cyber actors linked to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Center 16 continue to compromise poorly configured routers and networking devices tied to critical infrastructure. SWK Technologies
• [New] Ukraine's actions against Russian interests abroad - whether shipping or mercenary networks - raise costs and risks for Moscow. CEPA
• [New] Russia is struggling to recruit enough soldiers to replace its current losses using its current force generation methods, and it remains unclear how long Russian forces will be able to sustain their current offensive tempo at their current loss rate. Critical Threats
• [New] Space is becoming more contested; Russia and China have been working to develop space-based weapons that threaten U.S. and ally satellite constellations and space-based services, including GPS. House Committee on Energy and Commerce
• [New] Russia will continue its war against Ukraine until its territorial demands are met. The Kyiv Independent
• [New] Later, as Russia's military position continues to worsen, renewed concerns are emerging that Vladimir Putin could consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. iHeart
• [New] Russia moves to reroute grain as Azov Sea disruption deepens: Russia says it can divert grain exports from the Sea of Azov, but longer rail hauls, higher costs and insurance risks could slow shipments. Ag Bull Trading
• [New] Putin points to China and Russia's cooperation in high-tech sectors as a primary focus, alluding to the joint development of space and other weapons that could affect strategic stability. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION
• [New] Chinese cell phone manufacturers Huawei, Xiaomi, and Oppo have cut back cell phone shipments to Russia by over 50% due to the risk that secondary sanctions could be imposed on China. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION

Last updated: 01 August 2026