Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] There is an increasing threat from expanding ability of China, Russia, and North Korea to deliver nuclear weapons against the United States, including the territories of the United States. GovTrack.us
• [New] The United States should develop and field homeland integrated air and missile defence that can deter and defeat coercive attacks by Russia and China, and determine the capabilities needed to stay ahead of the North Korean and Iranian threat. GovTrack.us
• [New] Ukraine signed an agreement with Denmark that will allow Ukrainian defence industrial companies to export production to Denmark, increasing the scale and supply of Ukrainian weapons in a location where Russian forces are unable to strike Ukrainian defence industrial facilities. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] The Ukraine war experience shows Russia feels constrained by that reality: NATO's conventional aid to Ukraine has been massive, but Putin has not dared attack NATO territory or use a nuke, precisely because doing so could trigger direct Western military intervention that Russia cannot survive. The DEFCON Warning System Shop
• [New] NATO and Russia have signalled in the current Ukraine conflict that they want to keep it non-nuclear: Western officials have been careful to limit direct engagement, and Russian officials emphasize that nuclear use would only be if Russia's homeland were existentially threatened. The DEFCON Warning System Shop
• [New] While Russia has not dared to attack NATO directly (which would risk a U.S. nuclear response), the invasion of Ukraine proved that having nukes does not stop a nuclear-armed power from waging major conventional war against a non-nuclear state. The DEFCON Warning System Shop
• [New] Eight members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, will collectively increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August - exceeding prior plans. archyde
• [New] Putin's rapidly growing drone arsenal poses a direct threat to European security and would likely play a leading role in any future war with Russia. Atlantic Council
• [New] The EU is expected to consume 111 million tons of wheat and 78 million tons of corn, followed by India with 113 million tons of wheat and 44 million tons of corn, and Russia with 39 million tons of wheat and 11 million tons of corn. Feed & Additive Magazine
• [New] Wheat production is expected to reach a new record level of 808 million tons in the 2025/26 season thanks to higher harvests in Russia, the EU, and India. Feed & Additive Magazine
• [New] A recent Institute for the Study of War report assessed that both Ukraine and Russia have already begun to integrate AI into their drone capabilities in hopes to develop full AI-powered unmanned systems. Geopolitical Monitor
• [New] Beyond military cooperation, the disruption of critical undersea infrastructure and seabed warfare activities represents a form of nefarious relations that Russia and China might pursue in the Arctic. CEPA
• [New] Should the United States instead back away from supporting Ukraine, it would risk losing access to proven defence technology, battlefield expertise, and data on Russia's military performance. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] As Ukraine and Russia deploy AI-enabled drone technology, China, Iran, and North Korea will be watching, and learning. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• [New] In a pivotal moment for international relations, the BRICS nations-Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa-have come together to jointly condemn the United States for its perceived threats against pro-BRICS countries. County Local News
• [New] The BianLian ransomware group from Russia has shifted tactics and is focusing exclusively on encrypting victim's data and stealing information through compromised Remote Desktop Protocol credentials, thereby raising the risk of significant operational disruption. Boston Institute of Analytics
• [New] OPEC + members agree to larger-than-expected oil production hike in AugustSummary: An eight-nation OPEC + group, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, agreed to a larger-than-expected 548,000 barrels per day production hike for August. Oil and Gas Outsourcing and Mineral Management
• [New] Russia's invasion caused immediate drops in stock prices and sovereign bond values, while commodity prices surged as fears of supply disruptions took hold. Debexpert
• [New] The Kremlin likely hopes that the war risk insurance program will assuage concerns from Russian businesses in investing in occupied Ukraine, which will lead to better urban development projects that seem more attractive to Russian emigres. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] Russian occupation officials are using the threat of disconnecting residents of occupied Ukraine from mobile communications networks in order to coerce passportization. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] On Friday, the commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces warned that the number of long-range drones used by Russia to attack Ukraine could reach 1,000 or even more per day, citing intelligence data. RNZ
• [New] UK Gov not Is Preparing For Civil War, Using Russian Invasion Threat As Cover A prominent academic in London has warned that the UK government is actively preparing for the break out of a civil war, but is using the logically absurd cover of a Russian invasion to put contingencies in place. Rapture Ready
• [New] Russia may benefit from the PRC's renewed desire to import Russian oil via the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline to offset the risks of disruption of oil flows from the Persian Gulf. Institute for the Study of War

Last updated: 12 July 2025