Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] The intensification of Western sanctions against Russian oil has injected fresh uncertainty, with Russian export volumes threatened by maritime restrictions and price cap enforcement. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• [New] Several large state-owned refiners have announced they will refrain in the short-term from buying seaborne Russian crude oil. Fuels Market News
• [New] The physical damages and EU's most recent sanctions against Russia make it unlikely that Nord Stream 1 and 2 will ever carry gas again. gogel
• [New] For Europe to protect itself and Ukraine against Russia, it will have to invest heavily its own defence capabilities. gmfus
• [New] Whatever the result of the US election in November, three US priorities will endure: increasing defence spending and capabilities, deterring Russia, and countering the PRC. gmfus
• [New] South Africa will investigate how 17 South African citizens were lured into joining a mercenary force in the Russia-Ukraine war under the pretext of lucrative employment and contracts. Just Security
• [New] If Russia consolidates Pokrovsk, it will open a crucial operational window onto the Donbas logistics hub. Atalayar
• [New] Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered officials on Wednesday to submit proposals for a possible resumption of nuclear tests in response to President Donald Trump's statements last week that appeared to suggest the US will restart its own atomic tests.
• [New] Morgan Stanley raised its Brent crude forecast for the first half of 2026 to $60 a barrel from $57.5, citing the OPEC + decision to pause quota hikes in the first quarter of 2026 and recent U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian oil assets. TradingView
• [New] Russia's capture of Pokrovsk, an important road and rail hub, could enable further advances into the eastern Donetsk region, which Russia aims to fully occupy. ST
• [New] Russia is likely to continue limited chemical weapons use in Europe over the next decade to sow fear and fracture NATO unity, though large-scale biological or nuclear attacks remain unlikely. Global Biodefense
• [New] Venezuela has deployed the Russian-supplied Buk-M2 E surface-to-air missile system west of Caracas, significantly bolstering its layered air defences against potential aerial threats. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] Russia's government plans to issue domestic bonds denominated in Chinese yuan for the first time as it seeks to cover a ballooning federal budget deficit that is now expected to reach nearly five times the original target for 2025. The Moscow Times
• [New] There's a possibility that new Western sanctions on Russian oil might help curb a ballooning global surplus of unused oil. investing.com
• [New] India will purchase less Russian oil than it has in the past. DailyForex
• [New] Trump said he had instructed the Pentagon to immediately resume nuclear weapons testing on an equal basis with other countries like Russia and China, whose nuclear weapons arsenal will match the US in five years. Al Jazeera
• [New] The Kremlin has been using defunct US-Russian arms control treaties to cater to the bilateral Russia-US relationship in the hopes of securing future concessions on Ukraine. Critical Threats
• [New] Russia's long-range strike campaign continues to target critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of Winter 2025-2026. Critical Threats
• European funding for Ukraine, though often delayed, is described as a tsunami overwhelming Russia, while China's support is limited to weapons technology and the promise of future gas purchases-real financial relief for Moscow will not arrive before 2030. Grand Pinnacle Tribune
• ISW continues to assess that any future ceasefire or long-term pause in combat in Ukraine would free up Russian forces for rapid redeployment to Russia's eastern border with NATO, whereby Russia may be able to pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than many European officials currently expect. Critical Threats
• Jager stated that Europe must prepare for further Russian escalation and cannot assume that Russia will not launch a conventional attack against NATO until 2029. Critical Threats
• If Russia can attack Western satellites and disrupt undersea infrastructure at the same time, NATO digital flows will never be truly safe. The Highland County Press

Last updated: 08 November 2025