Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Japan strongly encouraged the U.S. pursuit of multilateral strategic stability talks to help avert a nuclear arms race, address concerns about nuclear testing, reduce nuclear risks, and bolster transparency, including through arms control dialogs with China and Russia. United States Department of State
• [New] Even if China surpasses 1000 warheads by 2030, that will still amount to only about one quarter of each of the current Russian and US nuclear stockpiles. Sipri
• [New] Russian intelligence tools intended to hunt ISIS-K could easily be redirected by Taliban factions toward other targets, including regional rivals, Afghan political opponents, or competing factions. The Cipher Brief
• [New] Biometric databases could help identify ISIS-K and other suspects, but they could also turn Afghan border crossings into screening nodes serving Russian security priorities. The Cipher Brief
• [New] While the NDS apparently sees Russia's nuclear, cyber, undersea, and space forces as focused on the U.S. homeland and not Europe, the NDS does state that it will continue to play a vital role in NATO itself. Perry World House
• [New] There was a view - a hope - that additional arms control agreements covering the non-strategic nuclear weapons would follow, that the total size of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals would be further reduced, and that the risk of nuclear confrontation would continue to diminish. Perry World House
• [New] The following day state-sponsored media threatened that if NATO got in its way in Ukraine, Russia would shoot down all 32 GPS satellites. SpaceNews
• [New] Only one satellite's orbit aligned perfectly - the Russian satellite Kosmos 2546. Ars Technica
• [New] Several hacks attributed to (or at least in part blamed on) Russia have risked real-world harm to communities and populations. TechCrunch
• [New] Moscow has been careful not to push too hard, as the Kremlin understands that excessive pressure could backfire and fuel further anti-Russian sentiment. The Guardian
• [New] Zelensky is now warning that Russian intelligence preparations point toward a massive new strike against Ukraine. Armstrong Economics
• [New] Scientists and U.S. military briefers have linked short, widespread interference incidents to Russia, revealing vulnerabilities in a technology essential to everyday society. The New York Times
• [New] As concern rises in Europe over threats from an emboldened Russia, the Irish government says it's working to plug gaps in its military, which reflect a tradition of neutrality. The New York Times
• [New] Urenco said on Tuesday it would build a new uranium enrichment plant in New Mexico ahead of a looming import ban on Russian reactor fuel, which is set to begin in 2028 under legislation passed during the Biden administration. Electricity Info
• [New] High threat awareness of the national security risks Russia poses already exists in the Baltic and Nordic states. Centre for European Reform
• [New] Strong conventional capabilities on the part of NATO complicate Russia's escalate to de-escalate logic by reducing Moscow's ability to use nuclear threats to compensate for its own potential conventional vulnerabilities, which are increasingly manifested in its war against Ukraine. DGAP
• [New] Russia, Iran, and Afghanistan are currently rated Level 4 Do Not Travel, driven primarily by the absence of consular access and the extreme detention risk. Chesley Brown International | Security Consulting, Prot
• [New] The UK NCSC assesses that the greatest nation-state-sponsored cyber threats to the UK and its allies continue to emanate from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, with state-aligned actors increasingly blurring into financially motivated cybercrime crews. Swif.ai
• [New] Germany will keep two of its three remaining nuclear-power plants online past their December shutdown deadline in an effort to buttress its power supply after Russia halted gas flows. The Council of Industry
• [New] Putin is using massive strike packages against Kiev in an effort to break Ukraine's will to fight as well as to disguise his weakness, particularly his inability to secure Russian territory, including Russia's capital, from Ukraine's deep strikes. Critical Threats
• [New] Container ship operations on the NSR are expected to begin in earnest around 2035. / Russia Cello Square
• [New] As long as the war in Ukraine continues, it will be difficult for foreign carriers to operate Arctic routes due to concerns about Western sanctions against Russia. Cello Square
• [New] ROSATOM Corp. (ROSATOM), the operator of the NSR, plans to conduct a pilot operation of icebreaking container vessels as part of the NTC project in 2025-26, albeit with some delays. / Russia Cello Square

Last updated: 13 June 2026