Global Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] No one in Russia plans to launch a full-scale mobilization process - at least not publicly. RBC-Ukraine
• [New] Low-cost drones may be used, not just as a force multiplier but as an air force in its own right to strike deep inside Russian territory without risking the loss of a multi-million-dollar fighter jet or a human life. Strafasia | Strategy, analysis, News and insight of Eme
• [New] ISW continues to assess that Russia would likely be able to pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than many Western estimates, particularly in the event of a future ceasefire in Ukraine that would free up Russian forces and allow Russia to rearm and reconstitute. Critical Threats
• [New] Russian forces deployed additional assault groups to the Orikhiv direction and are conducting small group infiltration operations, which could threaten Orikhiv from the east. Critical Threats
• [New] As long as the conflict in Ukraine continues, it will drain Russia's resources and prevent the NSR from becoming a universally recognized transport artery between the Far East and Europe. .name
• [New] The development of the NSR as a transport corridor that will transform both the Russian economy and global trade is considered a strategic priority. .name
• [New] A peaceful settlement in Ukraine mediated by the United States will pave the way for increased economic cooperation with Russia in areas such as oil and gas exploration and the development of other resources in the Arctic. .name
• [New] Russia has sensed new opportunities in the melting Arctic. .name
• [New] Russia-aligned threat actor UAC-0184 was observed continuing and intensifying a spearphishing campaign targeting Ukrainian military and government organizations using the Viber messaging platform. FireCompass
• [New] North Korea plans to grant Pyongyang residency to families of soldiers killed fighting in Russia, but only immediate relatives will qualify. The Asia Cable
• [New] The Middle Corridor linking the Black Sea with Central Asia has gained value after the war in Ukraine weakened the Russia route through sanctions and risk. The Asia Cable
• [New] A more navigable Arctic increases the strategic value of Greenland as a platform for monitoring and responding to Russian activity and for protecting North Atlantic routes that could become more economically significant. The Times Of India
• [New] Russia is worried about NATO's activities in the Arctic and will respond by strengthening the capability of its armed forces there. Navy Times
• [New] Only after an open armed attack on NATO's eastern flank would Germany face direct military threats like long-range missiles, armed drones, and special forces, emphasizing Russia's role as the greatest and most immediate threat to German security. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] Aggressive jamming of Russian military systems could trigger responses NATO is not prepared to manage. Trajectory
• [New] If Russian jamming cannot be defeated defensively, NATO could invest in jamming Russian systems symmetrically. Trajectory
• [New] Critical next steps include reinvigorating military risk-reduction measures and crisis communication channels to manage the long contact line with Russia. Yeni Safak
• [New] Undersea cable disruptions have occurred frequently over the past few years and have been largely attributed to Russian sabotage. SOF News
• [New] Russia-Botswana collaboration could potentially advance rare earth extraction and processing technologies, particularly in challenging geological environments. Discovery Alert
• [New] Russia is currently preparing long-range plans to turn its frigid Arctic zone into a booming frontier of trade, resource extraction, and, some hope, international cooperation. The Christian Science Monitor
• [New] Russia will attack a Nato country within the next five years. Counterfire

Last updated: 10 January 2026