Italy

WHAT'S NEXT?: The Italian economy is already in a fragile state and a now likely period of political uncertainty would be likely to do further damage. In particular, Italy's banking industry is seen as vulnerable to a loss of confidence. Italy could be the next domino to fall out of the EU through increasing populist party support.

• [New] Italy and Spain will see a continued rise in insolvencies in 2021, pushing their annual number of insolvencies up to 2014-2015 levels (to 14,000 and 5,850 cases, respectively).
• Germany's decline in national income (GDP) is forecast to be 6.6% in 2020 while Spain's GDP will fall by 11.1%, Italy's by 11.3 and France's by 11.4%.
• The 2020 slowdown will be particularly pronounced across advanced economies such as the United States, Germany, Italy, and Japan.
• Italy is the EU's fourth largest producer of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and its energy sector is the largest contributor to the total GHG emissions with a share of 56% in 2017.
• In 2020 Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US are all expected to go into recession.
• If a tax could be agreed by Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Benelux and the EU Nordic countries, it would cover 59% of emissions from flights within Europe and raise €3.7 billion a year.
• By 2100, the populations of Japan, Spain, Italy and South Korea could be half the size they are today.
• More than 20 countries, including Italy, Japan, Poland, Portugal, South Korea, Spain and Thailand, will see their numbers diminish by at least half by the year 2100.
• France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States will see their economies shrink by more than 25% within a year.
• Some 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain, will see populations plummet by more than 50% by the end of the century.
• Some countries, including Japan, Spain and Italy, will see their populations halve, while sub-Saharan Africa's population will triple in the next 80 years.
• World population forecasted to peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion people and fall to 8.8 billion by century's end, with 23 countries seeing populations shrink by more than 50%, including Japan, Thailand, Italy, and Spain.
• If the second wave spike scenario prevails online grocery penetration could over the next five years soar to almost 14% in the UK, 13% in France, 11% in the US, more than 8% in Italy and 4% in Germany.
• GDP is expected to fall by 8.7% in the Eurozone, by 9.7% in Britain and by more than 10% in Italy, France and Spain.
• Italy, France and Spain are forecast to exhibit the largest economic contraction with the UK expected decline by more than 10% in 2020 followed by a partial recovery next year.
• Germany, France and Italy are about to adopt policies that formulate stricter technical criteria that could lead to a partial ban on Huawei.
• Germany and the UK might just meet their demand, but France, Italy and Spain collectively will face a deficit of almost 30,000 to 50,000 ventilators, which might be purchased through the rest of 2020.
• Most of the main luxury markets will be impacted: -25% for North America, -22% for mainland China, between -15% (United Kingdom) and -26% (Switzerland) in Western Europe, where the German market is expected to decline by 23%, France and Italy by 20%.
• The IMF has forecast that Italy and Spain, two European countries that have been significantly affected by COVID-19 and which together account for 34% of air travel in the EU, 10 will see annual GDP decline by 9.1% and 8% respectively in 2020.
• When elections are next held in 2023, Italians might elect a EU-phobic government led by Salvini, perhaps in alliance with Brothers of Italy.
• Across Europe, Spain, France, Germany and Italy will be the main growth drivers, with each market estimated to add between 1 2GW and 2 4GW of capacity over the next decade.
• A combination of wind and solar power, otherwise known as Variable Renewable Energy, could make up the largest share of power capacity throughout Europe's major markets - Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy and Spain - as early as 2023.
• South Africa will revoke nearly 10,000 visas issued this year to people from China and Iran, and visas will now be required for other high-risk countries that had been visa-free, including Italy and the United States.

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Last updated: 18 September 2020