Canada

WHAT'S NEXT?: The U.S. and Canada's new governments will have their work cut out dealing with potential changes to their trade agreements while simultaneously Canada will be anxious to implement CETA with the EU.

• [New] Canada has pledged to plant 2 billion trees over the next ten years to draw down millions of tons of CO2 emissions, and Australia, before this year's wildfire season started, announced plans to plant 1 billion trees by 2050.
• [New] In all, the BoC expects the fourth quarter of 2019 to post 0.3% growth, with 1.3% to come in Q1 of this year; on a global scale, the economy will grow 3% in 2020, and 3.25% in 2021, while Canada's GDP will be up 1.6% this year, and 2% next.
• [New] While the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers forecasts the industry will spend about six per cent more on capital programs this year, companies will be watching volatile oil markets closely in the coming weeks.
• [New] A further 17 million tonnes of annual LNG capacity is expected to be commissioned this year in the United States, and beyond this year there will be new supplies from Canada, Qatar, Mozambique and Nigeria among others.
• [New] The total economic benefit of AVs to Canada will be $65 billion per year in 2013 dollars.
• [New] Deliveries across NGTL for markets beyond Western Canada are projected to grow by only 9% to an annual average of 7.2 Bcf / d as of 2024.
• The Conference Board of Canada projects that utilization will account for 0.9 percentage points of the annual growth in provincial and territorial health spending between 2001 and 2020 in Canada.
• The Canadian Institute for Health Information finds that aging will account for no more than one percentage point of future growth in health care expenditures for Canada between 2002 and 2026.
• The Conference Board of Canada forecasts that demographics will contribute 1.7 percentage points to the annual growth in provincial and territorial health spending between 2001 and 2020.
• Natural gas exports via pipeline to Mexico and Canada, or via LNG facilities to the rest of the world's markets, will continue to increase until the end of this decade.
• All of the top five Canadian oil and gas producers are expecting solid output growth in 2020, ranging between 4-7 pc, despite highly divergent capital spending plans for the year.
• CAPP predicted a C$ 1 billion ($750 million) or 4% increase in 2020 to C$ 25.4 billion ($19 billion) for investment in Canadian supplies of natural gas, liquid byproducts and light oil.
• Investment in Canadian oil and natural gas will start recovering this year from its 57% collapse driven by weak commodity prices and pipeline project setbacks during 2015-19.
• Key risks as 2019 draws to an end include oil prices and ratification of the new trade deal between the US, Mexico, and Canada.
• In Canada, 50,000 mining workers, representing roughly 26 percent of the current workforce, are expected to retire in the next ten years.
• Pork prices have hit record highs in some regions, while trade barriers continue to limit the upside in the US and Canada: prices will continue to increase through Q4 2019 and into 2020, as markets work to balance supply and demand.
• The sales of recreational cannabis in Canada could be as much as $5 billion per year, attracting between 150,000 to 250,000 cannabis tourists annually.
• The DVD, Game and Video Rental industry in Canada has long suffered as a result of online video: Over the five years to 2019, industry revenue is anticipated to fall an annualized 6.8% to only $457.6 million and is anticipated to drop at an annualized rate of 1.7% over the five years to 2024.
• The year 2019 will be known as the year of retail closures in Canada and the United States.
• The majority of NGTL traffic growth over the next five years is expected to be a response to gas demand inside Canada.
• Canada and Australia round out the world's US$ 10 billion + ad markets in 2019, with Canada expected to grow slightly faster over the next five years and growth likely largely tied to the health of its southern neighbour.

See full forecast

Last updated: 12 February 2020