Emerging Climate Risk Zones: The Rising Threat to Historically Low-Risk Areas

Climate change is reshaping risk landscapes worldwide, but one weak signal gaining traction points to an unexpected development: areas historically considered low risk for climate-related disasters are now becoming new hotspots. This shift could redefine disaster preparedness, insurance models, and supply chain strategies across diverse sectors. Recent evidence from Asia-Pacific and environmental research suggests a growing urgency to reassess assumptions about where and how climate impacts will manifest over the next two decades.

What’s Changing?

Traditionally, disaster risk management has focused on known hotspots—coastal zones vulnerable to hurricanes, arid zones prone to drought, or regions with historically frequent flooding. However, climate change’s accelerating pace and complexity signal a transition whereby these classic risk maps may become obsolete.

For example, Sri Lanka’s central hills and Thailand’s southern strip, once considered low-risk zones, have recently been designated as emerging climate-risk hotspots. This geographic expansion stems from intensified rainfall patterns, temperature fluctuations, and disrupted monsoon cycles attributable to global warming (UNESCAP).

Accompanying this geographic shift, the biodiversity crisis compounds risks in new regions. Nearly 10% of marine species face extinction, and 40% feel climate change effects—an indicator of cascading ecological vulnerabilities that could ripple through ecosystem services even in previously stable areas (Earthisland).

Climate migration is likely to increase as well, as people might relocate from now-riskier traditional zones to these newly vulnerable regions, challenging urban planning and infrastructure resilience. Meanwhile, vector-borne diseases such as dengue and malaria are expanding geographically, following shifting climate envelopes that may introduce new public health challenges in emerging hotspots (Riskline 2026 Forecast).

Regulatory and policy frameworks are also responding to these dynamics. For instance, California’s mandatory greenhouse gas (GHG) disclosures beginning in 2026 signal increasing corporate and institutional accountability, which could extend to monitoring and mitigating unexpected regional climate risks (Hogan Lovells).

Furthermore, climate-driven geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts are poised to disrupt global supply chains, particularly in agribusiness. The dispersal of climate risks into previously stable regions could disrupt agricultural outputs, accelerate trade protectionism, and increase financial volatility in global markets (Coface US).

Why is this Important?

The geographic expansion of climate risk upends conventional risk assessment and disaster preparedness paradigms. Governments, insurers, businesses, and communities that rely on historical data may underestimate the vulnerability of these newly emergent hotspots. As a result, infrastructure investments, insurance underwriting, and emergency response strategies could lag behind the evolving realities.

Moreover, economic sectors such as tourism could face novel challenges. The proposal to tax tourists in Hawaii to fund climate impact mitigation reflects the growing monetization of climate-related externalities and could be an indicator of similar policies extending to these new risk zones (Scripps News).

The expansion of vector-borne diseases into new regions threatens public health infrastructure and economic productivity, especially in densely populated but historically low-risk areas. This implies a need for proactive healthcare surveillance and adaptation programs outside traditional tropical zones.

Additionally, these shifts expose interconnected vulnerabilities: ecological disruptions in new risk zones could affect fisheries and biodiversity, which then impact food security and climate resilience globally. The potential for "unknown unknowns" increases due to these compounded risks.

Implications

Businesses and governments must adopt dynamic risk models that incorporate emerging climate data and move beyond static geographic risk profiles. This adaptation could involve:

• Investing in real-time climate monitoring and predictive analytics to detect early signs of environmental instability in historically low-risk zones.
• Reevaluating insurance products to cover newly vulnerable areas, potentially developing layered risk-transfer instruments that adjust with evolving data.
• Enhancing public health infrastructure to anticipate the spread of vector-borne diseases into new regions, with interdisciplinary approaches combining climate science and epidemiology.
• Reforming urban planning to increase resilience in areas facing sudden climate stress, including flood-proofing, water management, and biodiversity conservation measures.
• Integrating climate risk disclosure obligations globally, akin to California’s GHG reporting, to improve transparency and accountability for climate vulnerabilities across sectors.
• Revisiting supply chain diversification and contingency plans, especially in agribusiness and fisheries, to mitigate disruptions triggered by emerging hotspots.

There is also an opportunity for multi-stakeholder collaborations—governments, private sector, academia, and local communities—to co-create adaptive strategies that account for rapid and geographically unexpected climate shifts.

Importantly, decision-makers may need to reconsider budget allocations, prioritizing flexible and anticipatory investments rather than reactive funding based on outdated risk maps. Scenario planning exercises and horizon scanning could incorporate these emerging hotspots to better prepare for 5-20 year outlooks.

Questions

• How can organizations integrate emerging climate risk hotspot data into their existing risk assessment frameworks effectively?
• What new public-private partnerships might be necessary to address the multidimensional challenges of emerging climate risk zones?
• How will shifts in climate risk geography impact global migration trends and urban development in low-risk regions?
• What role can technology, such as AI and satellite monitoring, play in identifying and managing these new climate risks?
• How can policymakers incentivize businesses and communities in newly vulnerable regions to invest in climate resilience?
• What are the potential geopolitical implications of expanding climate-risk zones, particularly as countries reassess their disaster preparedness and economic dependencies?

Keywords

climate risk; emerging risk zones; disaster preparedness; climate migration; vector-borne diseases; climate disclosure; supply chain disruption

Bibliography

• Climate and environmental news in brief winter 2026. Earthisland
• Regulatory developments as California’s 2026 mandatory GHG disclosures begin. Hogan Lovells
• Asia and the Pacific preparing for a new era of disaster risks. UNESCAP
• Countless new rules across 50 states: some new laws coming in 2026. Scripps News
• Navigating the future of the agri-food industry in 2025: risks, trade policy shifts and protection strategies. Coface US
• Riskline 2026 forecast: expanding vector-borne disease risks. Riskline