Democracy

WHAT'S NEXT?: Society is expressing its discontent with current democratic processes that leave the elites struggling to convince their voters of their good intentions and competencies. Read on to see how democracy is offering both great opportunities and risks while this period of volatility shakes out.

• [New] The next round of trade talks with China will begin relatively soon, but a Phase 2 deal is unlikely to be reached during 2020 due to the US presidential election in November.
• [New] If Bernie Sanders, a democratic socialist, is elected president of the United States, the Democratic Party will slowly become his party.
• In the 2016 election cycle, candidates spent over $6 billion dollars total on media, and the total cost in the 2020 election cycle is projected to reach $10 billion with nearly half spent on electronic media (broadcast and cable television and radio).
• Events in coming months-Britain leaving the European Union and the 2020 presidential election in America - will have great impact on the future of both nations.
• Political ad spending ahead of the 2020 presidential election is expected to surpass $2.7 billion - the new record - as the 20-plus Democratic primary candidates battle to replace President Trump in the White House.
• In an extreme scenario, it is possible that the UK will have failed to secure any meaningful free trade deals with the EU or with America, let alone China and India, by the time of a general election in 2024 or 2029.
• The party that wins the 2020 presidential election could win a significant advantage in the drawing of new Congressional and state legislative districts that would stay in effect until the 2032 elections.
• If Democrats try and fail to convict Trump, the party that loses next year's election is likely to question its legitimacy, and Congress could grind to a halt.
• The unprecedented hard left turn by the Democratic Party, abandoning the Obama strategy of 2008, will prompt more Latino evangelicals to support President Trump in 2020.
• For starters, who wins the U.S. presidential election will decide whether America actually leaves the Paris Agreement, and whether it takes any significant steps to reduce emissions at a federal level.
• If the Trump Administration can defend the ACE rule, a Democratic administration will need one to two years to develop and finalize a replacement akin to a Clean Power Plan 2.0.
• If an election were to be held in the Donbas, it strains credulity to imagine it being conducted freely and fairly, particularly since the idea of a United Nations peacekeeping mission, proposed several years ago by then-President Petro Poroshenko, is now off the table.
• The current year-to-date has seen demand in some USE industrial areas slowing, and with an election year ahead some economists and economic indicators forecast a more difficult industrial economy in 2020.
• As the race for the 2020 presidential election gathers pace, the bitter war of words between US President Donald Trump and his main political rival Joe Biden is expected to escalate.
• If Trump emerges from impeachment hearings to compete in the 2020 election, Mexico's security problems risk giving him another pretext to go after its government.
• Elevated valuations, geopolitical risk, and the 2020 election are among the risks that will likely bring some market volatility, but interest rates and inflation are low, and rate changes by the Federal Reserve may be on hold all year.
• While many other dimensions of competition between the US and China will continue to intensify, the phase one trade deal that the two are due to sign this week has provided Beijing with breathing room in the run-up to November's US election.
• Georgia has come a long way toward creating a modern democratic state: Next year it has an opportunity to renew its democratic credentials by conducting a free and fair election.
• Trump will be seething about impeachment but will use it as a weapon in next year's election.
• Geopolitics 2020 will be punctuated with geopolitical events which include the never-ending Brexit negotiation, multi-phase trade negotiation between the US and China and the US Presidential election.
• Between the U.S. election, global unrest, tariffs, and climate change, among other urgent issues, 2020 is going to be a roller coaster of a year.
• Investment will become more difficult, with major risks coming from political uncertainties due to international trade disputes and the 2020 US presidential election.
• U.S. stock futures are careening lower after President Donald Trump suggested a trade deal with China might not get done until after the 2020 election.

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Last updated: 16 February 2020