Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Headwinds generated by the new US tariffs announcements are expected to lead to a slowdown in UK-US trade, with exports remaining subdued for the remainder of the year as well as into 2026. KPMG
• [New] U.S. trading partners will, in CBO's estimation, increase their tariffs. Congressional Budget Office
• [New] The effects of policy uncertainty dissipate over time and disappear by the end of 2027, returning investment to what it would have been without the uncertainty in trade policy. / USA Congressional Budget Office
• [New] Economies in Southeast Asia will likely be hardest hit by worsened trade conditions and uncertainty. Asian Development Bank
• [New] Prospects for developing Asia and the Pacific could be dented further by an escalation of U.S. tariffs and trade tensions. Asian Development Bank
• [New] Higher tariffs and increased fragmentation in global supply chains could put upward pressure on import prices and domestic inflation. Central Bank of Ireland
• [New] Exports of goods and services are forecast to grow out to 2027 but more slowly than would have occurred in the absence of the higher global tariffs now in effect. Central Bank of Ireland
• [New] Over the longer term, particularly if tariffs are accompanied by broader changes to US tax and industrial policies, there is a risk of lower investment flows and restructured MNE value chains. Central Bank of Ireland
• [New] The modest upgrade to the 2025 outlook reflects stronger-than expected frontloading of economic activity ahead of new U.S. tariffs, lower effective U.S. tariff rates than initially announced in April, and pro-growth policies in several large economies. DESA Publications
• [New] Any sharp escalation in trade or border tensions could further weaken exports, tourism, and overall growth. Cambodianess
• [New] In the United States, higher effective tariff rates are expected to keep annual inflation above target through 2026, with businesses increasingly passing on costs to consumers. Mexico Business
• [New] Tariffs on Canadian / Mexican imports and energy sector focus caused currency fluctuations and supply chain vulnerabilities. Ainvest
• [New] Steeper tariffs and rapidly changing trade policies have created a historic opportunity for fourth-party logistics providers as shippers contend with supply chain disruptions and uncertainty. Transport Topics
• [New] Nearly a quarter of US holiday shoppers ages 18 to 29 will buy gifts earlier to avoid possible price increases due to tariffs in 2025. eMarketer
• [New] Artificial intelligence could boost global trade in goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040, provided the right policies are in place. Vinetur
• [New] Broader participation in agreements like the WTO's Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services could make AI more accessible and affordable worldwide. Vinetur
• [New] The WTO Secretariat's modeling finds that with the right enabling policies, the value of global trade in goods and services could be 34 to 37% higher by 2040. https://pressinsider.com
• [New] U.S. import cargo volume is projected to end 2025 about 5.6% below 2024 levels as new tariffs weigh on international trade. PentaVision
• [New] Trade growth will be particularly weak in the US, Canada and Mexico, and to a lesser extent, Europe and China. CIN
• [New] US-China rivalry is reshaping global and regional trade, pressuring ASEAN countries with transshipment rules that risk fragmenting supply chains and undermining regional integration. East Asia Forum

Last updated: 25 September 2025