Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Geopolitics will continue to shape M&A in 2025, as business leaders diversify geographically and reduce dependence on individual markets through strategic cross-border alliances, and reorganise supply chains to navigate potential new trade barriers. Clifford Chance
• [New] Set out strategy on hydrogen trade - The Scottish Government could work with the UK Government on a clear strategy on how hydrogen export, and potentially import capacities, are planned to be developed. ClimateXChange
• [New] The UK Government allowing risk-taking intermediaries in subsequent allocation rounds is critical to strengthen the hydrogen supply chain and unlock domestic hydrogen trade. ClimateXChange
• [New] The UK is less vulnerable to US tariffs than the eurozone as it is less export dependent, and it faces a lower reciprocal tariff of 10% vs the threatened EU tariff of 20%. ABN AMRO Bank
• [New] India is in talks for Free Trade Agreements with the US, European Union, and UK, which could affect agricultural trade. Ekam IAS Academy
• [New] Europe will be hit by U.S. tariffs and China dumping its goods in response to U.S. tariffs. TD Securities
• [New] In the U.S., tariffs and immigration policies will boost inflation by nearly 1 ppt by early 2026, eventually weighing on growth and have an important impact on monetary policy. TD Securities
• [New] U.S. tariffs would reduce economic growth in the short term, estimating that the U.S. economy could lose up to 0.5% of its GDP due to trade disruptions and higher prices. Mercurius & Associates LLP
• [New] While Canada currently faces the lowest tariff rate among all U.S. trade partners - thanks to a temporary exemption from reciprocal tariffs granted in April-Janzen cautions that trade uncertainty will likely continue to dampen business investment. AdvisorAnalyst.com
• [New] In a world of increasing global economic uncertainties, and amidst geopolitical conflicts and Donald Trump's tariffs, India will still retain the tag of being the fastest growing major world economy with a GDP growth rate of 6.2% for 2025. Economic Times
• [New] Since the US is one of the world's highest cost producer of goods, and other countries will retaliate, tariffs will not increase exports. mishtalk
• [New] Since the US is one of the world's highest cost producer of goods thanks to unions, tariffs will not reduce inflation. mishtalk
• [New] Increased defence investment in the UK and elsewhere in Europe will have a positive effect on GDP, while downside risks from trade tensions are mitigated by the agreement signed in May with the United States. economic-research.bnpparibas.com
• [New] India's strategic location and neutral global stance provide access to broader markets and mitigate geopolitical risks affecting Russia's declining export revenues and logistical bottlenecks, where delays in the Far East ports can reach up to three months. NASSCOM | The Official Community of Indian IT Industry
• [New] Asia could be the region most affected by new U.S. tariffs, which are likely to lead to a sharp and synchronized economic slowdown as corporate spending and trade suffer from uncertainty around U.S. trade policy. Morgan Stanley
• [New] While global trade tensions have eased to a degree over recent weeks the risk of a re-escalation remains and high levels of global uncertainty will likely persist for some time. NAB News
• [New] India has planned solar cells and wafer capacity of 100 GW and 40 GW respectively by 2030, which is aimed at reducing dependence on imports and becoming a self-sustaining power house. Rediff.com
• The rest of the world will likely see a significant increase in imports of cheap Chinese goods that China will no longer be able to sell to the US. Forex Peace Army - Your Forex Trading Forum
• US tariffs on UK steel & aluminum will be zeroed out.UK tariffs on US ethanol will be zeroed out. The Budget Lab at Yale
• US tariffs remain high, the continued uncertainty about US tariff policy will remain a drag on business decision making and it is unclear whether business and consumer sentiment will be fully restored. Business Research and Insights
• Geopolitical Impacts: Trade policies, such as potential tariffs under the Trump administration, could disrupt supply chains, particularly for Chinese exporters like Temu and Shein. Deployers
• Some central bank officials have flagged the likelihood that weaker demand will push down both growth and inflation, particularly in economies less directly exposed to US trade and less likely to impose retaliatory tariffs of their own. Reserve Bank of Australia
• In countries not levying new tariffs, weaker global demand should put downward pressure on inflation, though any disruptions to global manufacturing supply chains could lead to higher prices in some goods categories. Reserve Bank of Australia

Last updated: 29 May 2025