Crime

WHAT'S NEXT?: Crime is morphing away from traditional methods to more sophisticated technological approaches. A decline of traditional hierarchical criminal groups and networks will be accompanied by the expansion of a virtual criminal underground made up of individual criminal entrepreneurs. At the same time, forward-looking agencies are equipping themselves with smart technologies to outfox the criminals. Keep up to date with crime changes below.

• [New] The global terrorist threat from Daesh remains high, and its leadership is planning terrorist attacks in the border area between Syria and Iraq.
• [New] One lingering question for policymakers is whether the United States will remain a primary target of terrorist groups such as al Qaeda even as it cedes its position of global preeminence.
• TRIP has helped make terrorism risk insurance available and affordable in the United States, and that the market for terrorism risk insurance has been relatively stable for the past decade.
• The global terrorist threat from ISIL remains high, and its leadership is planning terrorist attacks in the border area between Syria and Iraq.
• Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Hezbollah and other terrorist groups operating in Syria that Israel would not hesitate to take further action if needed.
• In response to several synchronized terrorist attacks against high-profile targets in Saudi Arabia in early 2022, the regime in Riyadh mobilizes forces along the Saudi-Iraqi border to prevent further Iranian infiltration.
• Airline bosses are reassessing trends in passenger numbers, which had been expected to double in the next 15 years, just as they had with metronomic regularity since 1988, despite blips after the 9/11 terrorist attacks of 2001 and the financial crisis of 2007-09.
• As international humanitarian and aid responses to COVID-19 increase, governments should emphasise the importance of implementing the risk-based approach when mitigating the risk of funds being diverted to support terrorists and terrorist groups.
• Increased activity of the Taliban and terrorist groups such as ISIS in the northern regions bordering Central Asia is a threat to Tajikistan.
• In the last two years, the global terrorist threat has ameliorated thanks to the efforts of the international coalition assembled to fight the Islamic State.
• Analysts expect four of Japan's nine operating reactors to close temporarily next year while utilities make changes required under stricter anti-terrorism rules adopted after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.
• In the Philippines, the terrorist threat has taken a bloody evolution - from killings, kidnappings, and armed attacks in the past, to increased use of improvised explosive devices in the last decade, and more recently in the last few years a deadly ramp up of suicide bombings.
• Despite recent successes in the war on terrorism, there are three reasons that the United States will probably still face an ongoing threat for the next decade from radical Islamic terrorist groups in the Islamic world.
• Terrorism Index in the United States is expected to reach 5.80 by the end of 2020.
• Based on end use, the military segment is expected to reach USD 3.02 billion by 2027 on account of rise in military spending by NATO countries to deal with growing threat of terrorism.
• Central Asian countries remained concerned about the potential spillover of terrorism from Afghanistan, as well as the potential threat posed by the return of their citizens who traveled to Iraq or Syria to fight with terrorist groups, including ISIS.
• Although Palestinian terrorist groups in Gaza and the West Bank continued to threaten Israel, Israeli and Palestinian Authority security forces continued their coordination in the West Bank in an effort to mitigate violence.
• Going on holiday is not an acceptable excuse for travelling during the coronavirus lockdown, police have warned, as the UK is expected to see its warmest day of the year so far this weekend.
• California was forecast to spend $19.4 billion on the criminal justice system, up $341 million from the last year, the vast majority of which - $13 billion - goes to prisons, parole and probation.
• The Equality and Human Rights Commission has warned of the risks to disabled people's human rights posed by the rapid increase in the use of video technology in the criminal justice system in England and Wales during the COVID-19 crisis.
• The increased use of police officers wearing body cameras while on duty over the past decade had raised hopes that the use of force against African Americans would fall.
• Islamic State and other terrorist groups remain a threat today, even if they no longer hold territory in Iraq.
• A Palestinian revolt is likely to find support in the Arab and Muslim worlds if not among governments then among the public, and could become a cause celebre for Islamist terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, Islamic State and their offshoots.

See full forecast

Last updated: 19 September 2020