Economy

DRIVER: The global economy still faces serious headwinds and political uncertainty potentially balanced by the enormous promise of technological advancements in many fields. Read on to get a solid handle on the opportunities and risks you and your organization may likely face and set your sails accordingly.

[New] The housing gap already takes a toll on economies and the environment, a cost likely to grow as the urban population rises by an additional 2.25 billion people by 2050 b.
[New] In total, the pandemic-related legislation is projected to increase the US federal deficit by about $2.3 trillion in fiscal year 2020 and $0.6 trillion the following year.
[New] The loss of US L48 oil supply heightens the risks of a tighter global market and higher prices this decade.
[New] To improve air quality, the Government of India has an ambitious target: to increase the share of natural gas within India's total energy consumption from approximately 6% to 15% by 2030.
[New] Tripling energy innovation could serve as an economic stimulus for the U.S. economy, creating jobs in industries that will grow exponentially this century.
[New] Colombia just announced a new economic recovery plan that will spend $4 billion on renewable energy and energy transmission projects, including nine wind, five solar, three geothermal and one hydropower project.
[New] The ocean economy, which contributes upwards of $1.5 trillion in value added to the global economy, was particularly hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, with a projected loss of $1.9 billion for international shipping carriers alone.
[New] The Line 3 Replacement Project in Minnesota is projected to add $35 million per year in new tax revenue, $2 billion in economic activity, $162 million in local construction spending and 8,600 jobs.
[New] Projects in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania could potentially bring more than $3.5 billion in economic activity, 17,000 jobs and over $50 million a year in tax revenues.
[New] India's economy is expected to contract by 4.5% during the fiscal year 2020-21, while the National Council of Applied Economic Research predicts a contraction of 12.5% unless there is a huge stimulus.
[New] The U.S. economy will lose $116 billion in 2020 due to decreased international inbound travel, a decline of 75% compared to 2019.
[New] With the prices of renewable energy at record lows and increasing investment flows, the next decade will be a defining one for the global transition to clean energy.
[New] There is a pretty good chance that a carbon tax will be instituted in the United States, starting in 2022, leading to lower LNG out of the United States to international markets initially.
[New] Between 2025 and 2035, last-mile AV delivery services will generate $4.1 trillion in economic activity, prevent 348,000 road injuries, and save 407 million tons of CO2 emissions.
[New] Canadian oil production in 2020 will decrease by 0.4 mln barrels per day compared to 2019, and at the end of 2021 will reach the 2019 level.
[New] U.S. oil production by the end of 2020 is 10.9 mln barrels per day, and by the end of 2021 it is 10.3 mln barrels per day.
[New] Most of the gas demand lost in 2020 is expected to be recovered in 2021, supplemented by growth from the Asia-Pacific region between 2021 and 2025 as emerging markets in China and the rest of Asia recover economically and benefit from attractive gas prices.
[New] Strengthening demand in the rising economies is expected to drive the smartphone industry towards faster growth in 2020.
[New] The Chinese government's objective is to increase the share of natural gas in China's energy mix from around 8% in 2019 to 10% in 2020 and 15% in 2030 in a bid to improve air quality.39 (For comparison, natural gas accounted for 25% of global energy consumption in 2019).
[New] PetroChina groups gas-fired power generation into its green investments, while CNOOC promises to increase its share of natural gas in total production to 30% by 2025 from the current 19%.
[New] Reaching the World Health Organisation targets for air quality could boost the UK economy by £1.6bn a year.
[New] Due to the carbon neutrality goals signed by 185 countries, the global demand for hydrogen fuel is expected to increase to ten-fold by 2050, and production costs decrease considerably in the coming years.
[New] In India, where lockdowns have stalled consumer and business spending, GDP contracted by a record 23.9% in the first quarter of its fiscal year and is forecast to shrink nine per cent in FY2020 before recovering by eight per cent in FY2021.

See full forecast

Last updated: 22 September 2020