Conflict

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] US hypersonic weapons currently under development - which will likely be capable of carrying nuclear warheads over long ranges, should the United States choose to do so-might be fielded as early as 2023.
• [New] China's steel exports have been subject to 15 new anti-dumping investigations in the first nine months of the year, more than all of last year, as experts warn that the US-China trade war and the coronavirus pandemic have hastened a trend towards global protectionism.
• [New] While there are no signs of North Korea reprocessing fuel from its main nuclear reactor into plutonium over the past year, they seem to be still enriching uranium which could potentially be used in a nuclear weapon.
• [New] China's nuclear arsenal - while still far smaller than the United States' stockpile of around 4,000 nuclear weapons - will grow in the next five years to include roughly 200 weapons launched from land-based ICBMs capable of hitting the United States.
• [New] Conflict / insecurity, extreme weather events, desert locust, economic shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic are expected to be the key drivers of acute food insecurity.
• TRIP has helped make terrorism risk insurance available and affordable in the United States, and that the market for terrorism risk insurance has been relatively stable for the past decade.
• The India-China conflict threatens to exacerbate tensions between China and the United States, which have locked horns in 2020 over a range of issues, from trade disputes and human rights to Hong Kong's status and the initial response to the coronavirus pandemic.
• US production will now balance at about 11 million barrels a day through to the end of 2020 which is well below the 13 million barrels a day in March before the Saudi-Russian price war and Coronavirus pandemic devastated the US oil prices.
• Mercer expects the global economy to recover from below-trend growth rates to around trend as manufacturing picks up a bit and easier monetary policy begins to feed through, provided the US-China trade war does not escalate and global labor markets continue to be strong.
• Beijing worries that, in a conflict, the United States might attack China's nuclear forces and then use its defenses to block China's few surviving weapons.
• Although the tension between nuclear states has diminished since the end of the Cold War and disarmament efforts have reduced arsenals, the prospect of a nuclear war remains present, and might be closer today than it was a decade ago.
• Many countries are lacking in their ability to adhere to important international norms and commitments related to biological threats-less than half of countries in the GHS Index have submitted Confidence-Building Measures under the Biological Weapons Convention in the past three years.
• If the Trump administration makes real moves to block Chinese platforms, a full fledged digital war could ignite between China and the US, with untold implications for all industries, including luxury.
• The expansion of India's nuclear posture to take a conventionally and nuclear superior China into account will result in significantly new capabilities being deployed over the next decade, which could potentially also influence how India views the role of its nuclear weapons against Pakistan.
• The loss of income for people already living perilously close to the margins of survival will propel up to 50 million people into abject poverty this year, reversing three decades of gains in the war against deprivation.
• The Chinese threat against Taiwan has grown so acute that it's been suggested the United States should equip Taiwan with medium-range nuclear weapons as a means to deter attack.
• The election of Biden would not bring an end to the New Cold War, as the Chinese threat is a bipartisan issue in the US, with almost as many Democrats concerned about it as Republicans..
• Reeling from the largest GDP declines since World War II, major economies are passing a variety of stimulus packages to prompt growth and return to positive yearly GDP in 2021.
• For Iran, reeling under sanctions reimposed by the U.S., its new $400 billion long-term agreement with China could be an economic lifeline, while China could enhance its strategic influence in a region where the U.S. has built a strong presence since the Second World War.
• President Trump's approval rating continues to trend down, heightening the risks that he concludes he has nothing to lose by ramping up tensions with China beyond the current (mostly) war of words in a way that threatens the economic outlook in order to shore up his base.

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Last updated: 22 September 2020