Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] While the Iran-Israel conflict dominates global headlines due to its impact on oil prices, a less visible but equally critical threat is emerging: fertiliser supply disruption, with severe implications for India's food security and agricultural stability. Raman Academy
• [New] The presence of advanced weaponry in Taiwan could provoke further military responses from China, heightening tensions in an already volatile region. County Local News
• [New] The fall of Assad presents an opportunity for the new Syrian government to fully declare and destroy Assad's evil chemical weapons programme. GOV.UK
• [New] Increased International Support for Taiwan: The global response to the Ukraine conflict could serve as a blueprint for international support for Taiwan in the event of Chinese aggression. Archynewsy
• [New] U.S. allies remain concerned that an ongoing review of U.S. force posture worldwide could lead to troop cuts in Europe, just when they see Russia as a greater threat than at any time since the end of the Cold War. Fiji Broadcasting Corporation
• [New] Investments in emerging markets might face challenges given the potential for slower global growth, trade wars between the US and other countries, increasing geopolitical stress and ambitious sustainability agendas. AXA IM UK
• [New] Trade wars and tariffs, although not driven by green priorities per se, may eventually lead to the dismantling of global supply chains, which in turn will lower global emissions through lesser consumption, or through less transport-dependent local production. Cambridge Core
• [New] Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov claimed that Russia will raise 13,000 officers in 2025, amidst reports that Russia's war in Ukraine is degrading Russia's officer corps and professionalism among officers. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] With China, the US laid off on export restrictions in May, which led to a cooldown of trade tensions after months of threatening to increase rates. FinExtra
• [New] The U.S. could still expand sanctions on Russia, provide ammunition, and help the Ukrainians win the narrative war. The Atlantic
• [New] Easing geopolitical tensions and falling oil prices have reduced inflationary fears, supporting Treasury demand. Chrisman Commentary
• [New] Muted reaction so far of energy prices to Israel-Iran escalation - The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has raised concerns over the last few days about potential disruption to global energy supply. ABN AMRO Bank
• [New] Suspending US military aid to Ukraine very likely will not compel Russia to conduct meaningful negotiations with Ukraine as President Trump desires, but rather embolden Moscow to continue protracting Russia's war. Institute for the Study of War
• [New] A failure of coordination and escalating conflict could turn Russian bases into persistent hotspots of violence and undermine the authority of the new Syrian government. FDD
• [New] The escalation in tensions between the US and Iran during June has reignited geopolitical risk within EM. EXANTE Next Generation Investment Company
• [New] In Q2 Energy stocks were +4.74% due to escalating tensions in the Middle East that exacerbated concerns about potential supply disruptions. EXANTE Next Generation Investment Company
• [New] Natural gas futures dropped due to concerns over escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to fears of potential disruptions in energy supplies. morpher.com
• [New] Geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions are impacting natural gas prices, with traders monitoring Iran's response to Washington's actions and the potential for supply disruptions. morpher.com
• [New] Escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly strikes on gas facilities, raised concerns about potential disruptions to energy supplies, contributing to the bullish movement. morpher.com
• [New] Despite attempts to ease trade tensions, uncertainty about the impact of US tariff hikes on inflation outlook suggests that the Fed will likely hold its policy rates steady at its July meeting. Krungsri2020
• [New] Lloyd's has released a report noting that a hypothetical geopolitical conflict could disrupt global trade and supply chains, potentially leading to $14.5 trillion in losses for the global economy over a five-year period. ReinsuranceNe.ws
• Brent's oil rose to $81.40 per barrel, driven by growing tensions in the Middle East and fears of disruptions to global energy supplies. Lupicinio

Last updated: 08 July 2025