Global Scans · Geopolitics · Weekly Summary

• [New] Global politics will become more fragmented over the next decade, with traditional multilateral systems under stress. IO+
• [New] In 2026, BRICS engagement is likely to yield political signaling and incremental financial benefits, but its impact will remain symbolic rather than transformative unless institutional capacity and cohesion deepen substantially. Southeast Asia Public Policy Institute
• [New] A system of AI governance developed among wealthy nations and imposed on the Global Majority will lack the political legitimacy necessary for implementation and will fail to address the diverse contexts in which AI systems operate. Default
• [New] A China-Taiwan armed conflict has moved from Medium to High Risk, while political violence in the United States has risen from Low to Medium Risk for the EU. European Union Institute for Security Studies
• [New] GEOPOLITICS Cyberattacks leads the list of geopolitical threats, with war and uncertainty also top of mind Top concern among CEOs globally and in the US: 47% of CEOs globally rank cyberattacks as the #1 geopolitical threat for 2026. The Conference Board
• [New] Fully 68% of experts expect the global political environment in 10 years to be a multipolar or fragmented order in which middle and great powers contest, set, and enforce regional rules and norms, and only 6% anticipate a revival of a U.S.-led, rules-based system. Insurance Business
• [New] The continued rise of ideologically motivated extremism, driven largely by lone actors and fringe political movements, will become a major theme in defining the global terrorism risk landscape in 2026. WTW
• [New] In the year ahead, most mining leaders will need to treat geopolitics as core board-level risk, diversifying supply chains, scenario-planning for sanctions and conflict, and integrating geopolitical risk assessment into due diligence and strategic decision-making. Canadian Mining Journal
• [New] Political risk is rising to historically high levels, driven not just by trade disputes like Greenland but also by broader global events including war in Ukraine, Middle Eastern tensions, and protests worldwide. Insurance Business
• [New] Nine out of 10 Germans now see US political influence in Europe as pernicious, evidently fearing the open encouragement of far-right, Russia-friendly parties, as happened in Germany's federal election in February last year. Al Jazeera
• [New] While the US continues to project its military and political power through actions, threats, and tariffs, China is steadily imposing restrictions on key commodities and rare earths for which it is either the dominant global producer or the primary refiner. OnEquity
• [New] In the case of internal chaos, Iran's nuclear power reactor in Bushehr - Iran's only commercial nuclear power plant some 465 miles south of Tehran - could get sabotaged or targeted with the aim of causing havoc or making a political point. Daily Democrat
• [New] 79% of organizations view geopolitics and trade policy as a threat, as sanctions, tariffs and export controls disrupt global operations and create uncertainty in cross-border contracts and enforcement. Baker McKenzie
• [New] Escalation levers like stricter cap enforcement below $40 per barrel and secondary sanctions could accelerate erosion, forcing Russia toward de-escalation as war costs exceed political thresholds. GeopoliticsUnplugged Substack
• [New] For two decades, Europe's major defence contractors optimised for stable margins, predictable returns and low political risk. Air Street Press
• [New] Political advertising alone is expected to exceed $10 billion. / USA Insideradio.com
• [New] Global corporations have not abandoned the idea of globalization but are transforming it into a new hybrid model that could be termed globalization adjusted for geopolitics. Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
• The complex geopolitical context and major political milestones (end of Powell's term, U.S. and German elections) could add volatility. Societe Generale
• The main political groups in the European Parliament - EPP, S & D, Renew and Greens - agreed that platform algorithms pose a systemic risk to elections and public debate and that foreign interference demands tougher enforcement of the Digital Services Act, particularly during elections. EU DisinfoLab
• 2026 could prove to be as important a year for geopolitics as 1989. / Iran Hoover Institution
• China's narrative that the U.S. is unpredictable and prone to political interference will likely resonate in Hanoi. The Diplomat
• Global politics and war are likely to move commodity prices and equity markets while the contrariness of US foreign policy will both spook and buoy investors. Financial Foundations Australia

Last updated: 25 January 2026