[New] The recently announced European Drone Defence Initiative, aimed at developing an interoperable system for countering and deploying drones, hopes to reach initial operational capacity by the end of 2026 and be fully functional in 2027.
CIDOB
[New] Norway and Ukraine will begin joint drone production as of 2026.
CIDOB
[New] During the first half of 2026, the EU will launch key defence projects, aiming to create a drone wall in Eastern Europe to protect itself from Russia.
Ara in English
[New] More complex drone systems, such as the MQ-28A Ghost Bat, Ghost Shark UUV, Bluebottle USV, and Speartooth UUV could be fast tracked to support battlefield innovation and persistent surveillance in Australia's approaches.
The Strategist
[New] Poland plans to complete a new set of anti-drone fortifications along its eastern borders within two years, a top defence official has said, after a massive incursion of unmanned Russian aerial combat vehicles into Polish airspace earlier in 2025.
The Guardian
[New] Predictive Analysis: Expect rapid proliferation of Ukrainian maritime drone designs to US allies and partners within 12-18 months, particularly in the Indo-Pacific theater where similar asymmetric challenges exist against peer naval forces.
Drone Warfare
[New] Russian ISR drones are systematically probing NATO airspace boundaries while conducting Black Sea surveillance operations to counter Ukrainian maritime drone threats, exposing critical gaps in alliance air defence coordination.
Drone Warfare
[New] Iranian and proxy forces will likely respond by hardening critical infrastructure, deploying additional electronic warfare systems, and accelerating their own one-way attack drone production to maintain asymmetric cost advantages in any potential maritime confrontation.
Drone Warfare
[New] Predictive Analysis: Expect accelerated bilateral technology-sharing agreements outside traditional FMS channels as allies seek faster access to commercial drone and AI systems, potentially fragmenting U.S. export control effectiveness.
Drone Warfare
[New] Predictive Analysis: Within 18 months, expect Marine Corps FPV drone procurement to expand beyond 10,000 units as operational testing reveals consumption rates incompatible with current inventory levels, likely triggering emergency production authorities.
Drone Warfare
[New] Russia will likely intensify drone incursions into NATO airspace to further constrain allied support, while Ukraine may prioritize asymmetric counter-air capabilities including long-range strike systems targeting Russian air defence networks and drone launch sites.
Drone Warfare
[New] Ukraine has achieved the first confirmed underwater drone strike against a Russian submarine in a fortified naval base, demonstrating unprecedented autonomous navigation capabilities and cyber-physical integration that fundamentally expands the threat envelope for naval assets in protected harbours.
Drone Warfare
[New] Lockheed Martin and Microsoft's cloud-native Sanctum C-UAS represents a paradigm shift toward AI-driven, scalable counter-drone warfare that could establish Western dominance in the rapidly evolving aerial threat environment.
Drone Warfare
[New] Northrop Grumman's AiON represents a significant leap in counter-drone automation, claiming 98% workload reduction against swarm threats through AI-driven autonomous engagement across 45+ sensors and 50+ effectors.
Drone Warfare
Predictive Analysis: By 2027-2028, expect Chinese integration of satellite-independent navigation into operational drone swarms and autonomous maritime systems deployed in South China Sea operations, with hybrid sensor fusion becoming standard across PLA precision strike platforms.
Drone Warfare
The U.S. Marines' full-rate production of MADIS represents a critical shift toward mobile, integrated counter-UAS capabilities that can engage threats on-the-move, directly addressing the drone proliferation challenge in contested Indo-Pacific environments.
Drone Warfare
The PERCH system transforms legacy armored platforms into hybrid drone-launching nodes, extending tank lethality beyond line-of-sight while addressing the drone vulnerability crisis exposed in Ukraine.
Drone Warfare
Predictive Analysis: Expect rapid proliferation of similar interceptor drone programs across NATO and Middle Eastern states facing drone threats, with production rates becoming a key metric of air defence capacity.
Drone Warfare
Predictive Analysis: Expect 2026 to see Ukraine operationalize distributed drone manufacturing networks immune to centralized strikes, while Western partners institutionalize multi-year funding commitments through mechanisms like PURL.
Drone Warfare
Last updated: 04 January 2026
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