[New] In 2026, terrorist groups in conflict hotspots will continue refining and learning how best to deploy drones for their missions and how to circumvent drone countermeasures implemented by overstretched security institutions across the Sahel and the Horn of Africa.
The Soufan Center
[New] 2026 could see an unprecedented rate of drone adoption by foreign and domestic terrorist actors.
The Soufan Center
[New] 2026 could be the year when drone expertise migrates to a Western country, where terrorists seek to incorporate unmanned aerial systems into their operational planning, either for surveillance and reconnaissance or for an attack on a densely populated gathering or soft target. / USAThe Soufan Center
[New] China's largest weapon manufacturer has unveiled a small but ultra-long range kamikaze drone that could significantly outperform its main American competitor.
Caliber.az
[New] The drone package delivery industry is projected to grow from USD 692.60 million in 2024 to USD 8572.49 million by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate of 37% during the forecast period.
Polaris
[New] For now, Kiev will keep refining its seven-step dance, Moscow will keep probing for weaknesses and NATO officers will study every drone feed they can lay hands on.
EU Perspectives
[New] Ukraine's achievement of 95% domestic long-range drone production eliminates foreign dependency and establishes an indigenous deep-strike capability that will fundamentally reshape the 2026 battlefield dynamics against Russia.
Drone Warfare
[New] Ukraine will likely continue deep-strike drone operations against legitimate military targets while Western intelligence agencies face pressure to rapidly declassify assessments to counter disinformation in real-time.
Drone Warfare
[New] Red Team Assessment: From Beijing's perspective, Taiwan-Ukraine drone cooperation represents a dual threat: it strengthens Taiwan's asymmetric defence capabilities while potentially diverting advanced semiconductor technology to a conflict zone where reverse-engineering risks are high.
Drone Warfare
[New] Predictive Analysis: Taiwan will likely leverage its semiconductor advantage to become the primary non-Chinese supplier for critical drone components (flight controllers, communications chips, power management systems) to Ukraine and NATO allies by 2027-2028.
Drone Warfare
[New] Predictive Analysis: Expect Russia to maintain 100+ drone nightly operations through winter 2025-2026, forcing Ukraine into unsustainable interceptor expenditure while Moscow refines multi-axis swarm coordination.
Drone Warfare
[New] Predictive Analysis: Expect rapid proliferation of incendiary-equipped drone tactics to other theaters, particularly Middle East and African conflicts where non-state actors seek maximum psychological impact with minimal technical sophistication.
Drone Warfare
[New] The Pentagon's $1.1 billion Drone Dominance Program targeting 30,000 small UAS at $5,000 per unit signals strategic pivot toward mass procurement, yet implementation timelines extend into 2026-2027. / UkraineDrone Warfare
[New] Ukraine has achieved the first confirmed underwater drone strike against a Russian submarine in a heavily defended naval base, demonstrating unprecedented autonomous navigation capabilities and cyber-physical integration that fundamentally threatens traditional naval sanctuary doctrine.
Drone Warfare
The recently announced European Drone Defence Initiative, aimed at developing an interoperable system for countering and deploying drones, hopes to reach initial operational capacity by the end of 2026 and be fully functional in 2027.
CIDOB
Norway and Ukraine will begin joint drone production as of 2026.
CIDOB
During the first half of 2026, the EU will launch key defence projects, aiming to create a drone wall in Eastern Europe to protect itself from Russia.
Ara in English
More complex drone systems, such as the MQ-28A Ghost Bat, Ghost Shark UUV, Bluebottle USV, and Speartooth UUV could be fast tracked to support battlefield innovation and persistent surveillance in Australia's approaches.
The Strategist
Poland plans to complete a new set of anti-drone fortifications along its eastern borders within two years, a top defence official has said, after a massive incursion of unmanned Russian aerial combat vehicles into Polish airspace earlier in 2025.
The Guardian
Predictive Analysis: Expect rapid proliferation of Ukrainian maritime drone designs to US allies and partners within 12-18 months, particularly in the Indo-Pacific theater where similar asymmetric challenges exist against peer naval forces.
Drone Warfare
Last updated: 11 January 2026
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