Space

Global Scans · Space · Intelligence Briefing

Rapid advancement in space exploration technology: Upcoming milestones include India's Gaganyaan crewed mission by 2026 and NASA’s innovative deep-space missions like Psyche and Pandora, pushing the envelope in optical inter-satellite links and deep-space data transfer (Orbysa, IDSTCH, ScienceDaily).
Expansion of commercial satellite internet infrastructure: Companies like SpaceX’s Starlink and AST SpaceMobile target massive growth in global broadband connectivity, with revenue projections reaching up to $24 billion in 2026 and deployment of large-scale arrays (Sophic Capital, Fortune, RV Mobile Internet).
Innovations in space-based energy transmission and communications: Emerging demonstrations of power transmission systems and direct-to-device satellite SMS services signify transformative shifts in energy and communication paradigms (Energy Reporters, Verdict).
Increasing congestion and collision risk in low Earth orbit (LEO): High satellite activity, exemplified by Starlink’s frequent collision maneuvers, intensifies orbital traffic management challenges (Gizmodo).
Growth of the global space economy: The industry is projected to surpass $1 trillion by 2035, driven by commercial, governmental, and scientific advancements (Mirage News).

Challenges: Managing orbital debris and collision avoidance; ensuring cybersecurity for satellite networks; balancing commercial ambitions with sustainable space traffic management; navigating geopolitical competition especially with accelerating national space missions.
Opportunities: Monetizing satellite broadband and energy transmission; pioneering deep-space communication frameworks; leveraging New Space commercial paradigms for cost and innovation advantages; expanding services such as direct-to-device communication for underserved regions.
Risks: Potential satellite failures leading to debris cascades; market volatility linked to large IPOs (e.g., SpaceX); regulatory gaps creating governance issues; technological setbacks in ambitious missions impacting long-term strategic plans.

Best-Case Scenario: Smooth integration of commercial and governmental space efforts drives unprecedented connectivity and space-based power capabilities; regulatory frameworks evolve rapidly to address collision risks; deep-space data transfer technologies become standard, catalyzing human space exploration.
Moderate Growth Scenario: Continued expansion of satellite broadband with occasional technical or regulatory hurdles; orbital congestion increases but managed effectively; incremental advances in energy transmission; international collaboration progresses unevenly limiting deep-space mission ambitions.
Disrupted Progress Scenario: A major satellite collision or cyberattack triggers setbacks and stricter access controls; regulatory fragmentation slows commercial deployments; power transmission demonstrations delayed; geopolitical tensions reduce data sharing on scientific missions.
Worst-Case Scenario: Orbital space becomes highly congested and hazardous from debris; major satellite failures cause cascading losses; commercial space markets contract due to failed IPOs and investment pullback; international rivalry collapses cooperative missions leading to fragmentation of space activities.

How can we balance robust commercial growth in satellite infrastructure with sustainable orbital traffic and debris management?
What mechanisms could ensure cybersecurity and resilience of critical space-based communication and energy systems?
In what ways can international collaboration be strengthened to support ambitious scientific and deep-space exploration missions?
How might emerging space power transmission technologies reshape terrestrial energy landscapes and policy priorities?
What strategies could mitigate risks arising from market volatility in space sector investments impacting national strategic interests?

Investing in advanced space traffic management tools and protocols could preemptively reduce collision risks and enhance orbital sustainability.
Fostering public-private partnerships might accelerate technological innovation while aligning commercial activities with national security priorities.
Exploring frameworks for international cooperation and data-sharing could stabilize space governance amid growing geopolitical competition.
Monitoring emerging technologies in space-based energy transmission could reveal strategic opportunities for integration into broader energy policies.
Developing contingency plans to address potential market disruptions in major space sector actors could safeguard continuity in critical space capabilities.

Briefing Created: 22/12/2025