Welcome to Shaping Tomorrow

Our Scans · Fragmenting Europe: Geopolitics, Sanctions & Cross-Border Risk · Weekly Summary


  • [New] The BEA will act as a powerful tool for European strategic autonomy by promoting 'Made in the EU' products. Environment
  • [New] The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU reduces the military potential of the strategic autonomy of Europe: the EU cannot, as before, count on British participation in its operations. PubMed Central (PMC)
  • [New] European Union: In 2025, the European Commission will most likely work on making the EU more competitive through higher investment, a new industrial policy, strategic autonomy and regulatory simplification. Invesco
  • De-risking will then evolve into sudden de-coupling across sectors with outsized negative effects on de-industrialized Europe. War on the Rocks
  • The EU must pursue friend-shoring opportunities with India on a transactional basis, recognising that India prioritises strategic autonomy over bloc alignment. B&K Agency
  • An EU-led peace initiative could buy Ukraine and Europe valuable time to regroup and move towards strategic autonomy. Analyses & Alternatives
  • Last year, the fear factor kicked in for Poland and Hungary, two nations acutely aware of what happens when geopolitical risk escalates. TalkMarkets
  • Without swift and decisive action, the EU will fall short of its climate goals for 2030 and 2050, with devastating consequences for ecosystems, economies, and human lives in Europe and abroad. Stop Fossil Subsidies - United for Climate Justice
  • Geopolitical risk management Middle East: on Asia-Europe routes, use of the Cape of Good Hope route as a means of avoiding Houthi attacks on ships transiting via the Suez Canal represents around $1,000 in additional fixed costs per container. Upply
  • To achieve strategic autonomy, Europe needed more self-sufficient, independent capabilities in a drastically deteriorated security environment where Europeans could no longer rely on US support. Springer Nature Switzerland
  • Risking Europe being further behind than other key jurisdictions in the current geopolitical context where strategic autonomy is key. Cobalt Institute
  • Calls for strategic autonomy in Europe have increased amid spreading fear of a possible kill switch that would put cloud, communication, and data infrastructure at the mercy of service providers. The Soufan Center
  • Strategic autonomy, alignment on critical issues, and readiness to assert European interests will be crucial as the EU charts its course in the face of a transatlantic relationship that a second Trump administration could potentially alter. Beyond the Horizon ISSG | BtH
  • Public threats of reduced US participation in NATO and shifts in policy toward support for Ukraine create pressure in Europe to build its industrial base and strategic autonomy. XTB.com
  • Call for strategic autonomy and trade diversification in Europe offer potential opportunities for EU investors. SlideShare
  • The EU must brace for a more transactional and unpredictable relationship with the US, emphasising the need for strategic autonomy in crucial policy areas. Beyond the Horizon ISSG | BtH
  • By 2030, more than 75% of enterprises in Europe and the Middle East will repatriate their virtual workloads into environments specifically designed to mitigate geopolitical risk, compared to less than 5% in 2025. Technology & Software Development Blog | Future Process
  • Energy Oil prices climbed again as traders reassessed Venezuelan output and geopolitical risk - a key inflation and competitiveness issue for Europe in 2026. European Business Magazine
  • Conflict and volatility - from Red Sea shipping disruptions and cyber sabotage to regional tensions in Eastern Europe and flashpoints in Asia - are reminding investors that geopolitical risk is not abstract, but immediate and real. Blacktower Financial Management EU
  • While Europe is still home to world-leading companies, the European Union has fallen behind both the U.S. and China in key technologies, endangering the EU's climate, digital, and defence goals and making its desire for strategic autonomy harder to achieve. Fortune Europe

Last updated: 19 June 2026



Please stand by...

The magic is happening, but it might take a couple of minutes.

Login