Our Scans · Geo-economics and the Weaponisation of Interdependence · Weekly Summary

• [New] Proposed tariffs are refined from the original blanket 500% proposal to tariffs of up to 100% on the world's top five purchasers of Russian crude oil/natural gas (China and India expected to be among them) and top facilitators of sanctions evasion, reassessed by USTR every 180 days. Corn Refiners Association
• [New] Refinery, terminal, and nuclear power plant attacks in Ukraine, rising tensions with China over Taiwan, and shadow fleet activity tied to sanctioned trade are reshaping the risk calculus for every voyage. MarineLink
• [New] An Indian government official who spoke with Reuters, stated that the use of the yuan to settle payments for imports from countries other than China was rare until now, and could increase due to sanctions on Russia. U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC and SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION
• In technology trade news, the United States is preparing to introduce a new rule that will expand its export control powers over foreign made semiconductor manufacturing equipment destined for Chinese chip makers. LinkedIn
• The Graham sanctions bill could force governments and exporters in countries that continue purchasing Russian oil and gas to reassess their exposure if Washington imposes tariffs of up to 500%, potentially disrupting Asian commodity flows and creating new enforcement questions for U.S. allies. Fault Lines
• Singapore advanced implementation of its Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Australia, expanding legally binding trade and supply-chain cooperation to improve resilience against economic coercion and global supply disruptions. More News From NowHere
• The revised Russia sanctions bill could redirect additional energy trade through Asia and impose new compliance decisions on refiners, shippers and financial institutions, although its final scope remains unclear. Fault Lines
• Sanctions relief on Iran could reopen trade flows along the Balochistan border, which have been constrained for years. Al Jazeera
• At the margins of the IMF annual meetings in Washington last week, Chinese authorities stated that the setting up of the export control regime for rare earth will not affect normal trade flows. ABN AMRO Bank
• North Korea will likely exploit the weakening of international sanctions enforcement and deepening ties with Russia and the PRC to expand coal exports and gain foreign currency. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• Discussions about an ACI first emerged after the first Trump administration imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminum and threatened sanctions against European companies involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. gmfus
• Countries near the war zone tended to have tighter trade links with Russia and Ukraine, making them more exposed to sanctions and supply disruptions. CEPR
• By violating a temporary ceasefire agreement and striking commercial shipping, Iran continues to utilize asymmetric drone warfare as a calibrated tool for economic coercion, supply chain disruption, and diplomatic leverage against the global community. Ronin's Grips Analytics
• India has approved a 129.8-billion-rupee ($1.4 billion) guarantee for a maritime insurance pool, a minister said on Saturday, as wars and sanctions prompt insurers to withdraw cover, threatening trade flows. Insurance Journal

Last updated: 02 August 2026