Our Scans · Great Power Competition and Strategic Fragmentation · Weekly Summary

• By 2040-2060, the global context for Earth Observation is shaped by geopolitical fragmentation and shifting alliances. Indico at ESA / ESTEC (Indico)
• War in the Middle East, renewed pressure on energy prices, geopolitical fragmentation, high public debt, climate-related disasters, financial fragility, and uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence have created an unusually dense concentration of risks. The Financial Express
• The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, whose members are smaller powers, will become increasingly irrelevant as its ability to regulate great-power competition diminishes, causing member states to seek unilateral or minilateral non-ASEAN pathways to cooperation. / Australia Hudson Institute
• Washington is trading the certainty of its own primacy for a multipolar Middle East it hopes, rather than guarantees, will hold together. Middle East Monitor
• In a world where strategic competition among powers is on the rise, the Global South's emergence as an actor and the advent of multipolarity could work to the EU's advantage. CIDOB
• After appeasing Trump, to little avail, and with the threat of Greenland brewing, the EU is waking up to something the Global South grasped some time ago: the need to diversify allies in a multipolar world rife with strategic competition. CIDOB
• In the new multipolar world likely to emerge in the next decade, even major countries like the United States and China will undoubtedly find themselves exercising their asymmetric power ever closer to home. Asia Times
• The IMF projects global growth of approximately 3.1% in 2026, with downside risks linked to geopolitical fragmentation and conflict. TGM Research
• Other states - above all, India and South Africa - hope that multipolarity will provide them with greater foreign-policy room for manoeuver. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• Whether the world moves towards unipolarity, bipolarity, or a more fragmented multipolar order, Europe will benefit from diversified partnerships and fewer single-point dependencies. BSt Europe
• By the early 2030s, Europe has become the primary arena of great-power competition. BSt Europe
• Recent diversification efforts by reserve managers are primarily driven by geopolitical fragmentation, heightened sanctions risk and the need to enhance portfolio resilience, rather than by a fundamental loss of confidence in USD assets, said a reserve manager in Africa. Central Banking
• Geopolitical fragmentation is one of the dominant macro-trends reshaping risk and compliance in 2026, with data localization mandates proliferating faster than most enterprise legal teams can track. PlusClouds
• A more volatile operating environment Allianz identifies geopolitical fragmentation, trade disruption and uncertainty around strategic chokepoints as systemic risks for global supply chains. FlippingBook
• Through coordination within BRICS, Brazil might participate in collective declarations promoting multipolar governance and sovereign equality, reinforcing a unified stance against unilateral pressures that could compel alignment in a polarized war. Grokipedia
• The rise of China, renewed great-power competition, technological disruption, demographic pressures, growing public debt, fiscal constraints, and domestic division have forced a reassessment of what America can realistically achieve. Global SP
• In the Indian discourse, the emerging multipolar order is associated with a growing number of international centers of power that will engender an increased international pluralism of values, norms and institutions. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• International business is being rewritten in real time - by geopolitical fragmentation, technological disruption, sustainability pressures, and shifting global governance. AIB-UKI (Academy of International Business UK and Irela
• As the Asia-Pacific finds itself in the crosshairs of intensifying geoeconomic competition and strategic rivalry, plurilateral agreements provide a crucial safeguard - and strategic opportunity - to weather the volatility in the global economy. The Diplomat
• Moscow could employ salami tactics to undermine security on Europe's periphery, and the question of where Russia's European sphere of influence ended would remain a constant irritant. The Saturday Paper
• The Trump administration's transactional approach and sphere-of-influence worldview expose Germany's most critical vulnerability: structural dependence on non-EU-controlled digital infrastructure. DGAP
• The new regional order will be defined less by American primacy than by multipolarity, with China an increasingly central player and Iran an integral rather than a marginal actor. Foreign Affairs Magazine

Last updated: 13 September 2026