Our Scans · Managing Macro-Economic and Global Uncertainties · Weekly Summary

• [New] An operating margin rising from 4.5% in fiscal year 2029 to 5.5% + from fiscal year 2030, against geopolitical risk, yen volatility, and ASEAN competitive intensity, implies a significant improvement from recent performance levels. Automotive World
• [New] Japan dropped minimum bid sizes in balancing markets to include residential capacity, while South Korea and ASEAN economies are piloting industrial DR under flat tariffs that may evolve into dynamic pricing by 2028. Mordor Intelligence
• Geopolitical risk significantly raises the likelihood of new investment in Southeast Asia - especially for firms heavily reliant on China. CEPR
• Firms respond to rising geopolitical risk by diversifying production from China to ASEAN economies, rather than engaging in full decoupling or reshoring. CEPR
• Strengthening the ASEAN-GCC relationship is expected to create additional trade and investment opportunities, which are crucial for economic stability amid external pressures like U.S. tariffs. EDUREV.IN
• Malaysia, which was dealt a rate of 24%, announced it would not seek retaliatory tariffs and it said the trade ministry would be actively engaging with US authorities to seek solutions that will uphold the spirit of free and fair trade. The Jakarta Post
• Tensions in regions such as the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait could indirectly threaten shipping stability in Southeast Asia adding another layer of geopolitical risk. Modern Diplomacy
• After two days of intensive talks in Malaysia, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the U.S. and China reached a 'very substantial framework' to avert President Trump's threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Successful Farming
• Reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US have been revised down for Malaysia - from 24% to 19% - while more than 60% of Malaysian exports to the US are expected to be exempt. finews.asia
• As stagflation concerns grow in Europe, pressure is building on currencies, and inflation risks are rising again in emerging markets. investing.com
• ASEAN + 3 finance ministers reaffirmed commitments to open and multilateral trade, and to take coordinated actions to ward off any macro downside risks of Trump's tariffs. Warwick Powell's Substack
• With ASEAN countries absorbing more Chinese shipments than anywhere else, a regional economic slowdown would threaten Chinese exporters. Atlantic Council
• Bank Negara Malaysia forecasts 4-5% GDP growth for 2026, driven by domestic demand and E & E exports, while navigating external risks from geopolitics. The Sun Malaysia
• Key risks for Siam Cement Company include commodity-price swings, construction downcycles in Thailand and ASEAN, FX/interest-rate volatility, regulatory shifts on waste and carbon, and competitive overcapacity that can compress margins and leverage. Porter's Five Forces
• Notwithstanding the EU's economic sanctions against Cambodia and Myanmar, existing and forthcoming bilateral agreements with other ASEAN countries will strengthen interregionalism. Springer Nature Switzerland
• Trump's transactional approach could exacerbate tensions if tariffs escalate, prompting Malaysia to hedge via closer economic ties with China. East Asia Forum
• While recent trade tensions and tariff uncertainties have softened some growth forecasts, emerging markets are still expected to outpace advanced economies over the coming years. FedEx
• While U.S. tariffs on lithium and electronic components pose short-term risks, companies with diversified supply chains (e.g., sourcing from India or Southeast Asia) are better positioned to absorb cost pressures. Ainvest
• Domestically, potential semiconductor tariffs remains the key risk for Malaysia, particularly as the Trump administration shifts toward alternative tariff pathways. The Star

Last updated: 24 June 2026