Our Scans · Critical Minerals · BLUF

• BLUF: In the short to medium term, critical minerals supply chains—especially cobalt, platinum, rare earths, and battery materials—face pressing vulnerabilities that threaten decarbonization and industrial strategies globally; urgent coordinated action is required to secure diversified production, strategic stockpiles, and resilient partnerships.
• Supporting Detail:
• Global cobalt supply chains are tightly interconnected and prone to cascading disruptions impacting multiple countries and industries (ScienceDaily).
• Platinum markets face sustained supply deficits due to constrained mining (notably in South Africa), rising demand across automotive and industrial sectors, and no major new mines, risking inventory depletion within three years (Sprott ETFs).
• Europe's clean tech industrial base shows stark weaknesses in mined rare earths, battery materials, and metal production; strategic prioritization and friendshoring are necessary alongside domestic industrial fortification (Carnegie Endowment).
• Nippon Steel’s long-term carbon-neutral vision hinges on hydrogen technologies and BF-to-EAF conversion but requires stable critical mineral supplies and significant capital investments amid high operating costs (Nippon Steel).
• Most likely area of concern: Supply chain bottlenecks in cobalt and platinum mining and refining disrupt clean energy technologies and EV battery production within the next 3–5 years.
• Area of concern that could be most damaging: Failure to secure rare earth mineral supply and processing, critical for magnets and battery components, undermining Europe’s industrial competitiveness and global decarbonization efforts long term.
• Implications / risks: Prolonged supply deficits risk price spikes, geopolitical leverage by dominant producers, industrial decarbonization delays, and increased vulnerability to foreign coercion or market shocks.
• Recommended action / next step:
  • Implement coordinated industrial policies to strengthen domestic production and recycling capacity, prioritizing critical minerals and clean tech sectors.
  • Enhance diplomatic and trade strategies to establish trusted, diversified supply partnerships and friendshoring arrangements.
  • Develop strategic stockpiles and joint innovation frameworks, leveraging science diplomacy for technology transfer and resilience.
  • Support transition through targeted subsidies and market mechanisms that internalize CO2 reduction value, ensuring investment predictability.
• Confidence level in assessment: High