Our Scans · Critical Minerals · BLUF

• BLUF: Critical minerals supply chains face medium- to long-term risks from concentrated production, geopolitical tensions, and climate impacts; immediate action is required to diversify sourcing, scale domestic processing, and enhance recycling to ensure supply resilience and support clean energy transitions.
• Supporting Detail:
• Critical mineral demand, especially lithium (+350% by 2040) and graphite (+130%), is surging, while supply and refining are highly concentrated in few countries, notably China and Indonesia.
• Geopolitical tensions, export restrictions, conflict, and trade fragmentation threaten stable access to minerals essential for EVs, batteries, and renewables.
• Supply chains are vulnerable to climate risks including water scarcity, extreme weather, and trade route disruptions at chokepoints like the Panama Canal and Strait of Hormuz.
• These vulnerabilities could cause supply bottlenecks undermining energy security and the pace of decarbonization efforts.
• Implications / risks: Supply shortages, price volatility, disruption to clean energy technology deployment, and potential escalation of resource-driven geopolitical conflicts.
• Recommended action / next step: Accelerate investment in diversified mining and processing (including North America and Europe), scale battery recycling technologies, implement strategic stockpiles, enhance international cooperation on supply chain transparency, and invest in climate-resilient infrastructure at critical nodes.
• Confidence level in assessment: High

(UK Government Office for Science), (UNCTAD 2026), (IEA Canada Critical Minerals Review 2026), (IMARC Group EV Battery Recycling Report 2026)