Our Scans · Weapons Of Mass Effect · Weekly Summary

• [New] Key findings of SIPRI Yearbook 2026 are that states are increasingly relying on nuclear weapons as instruments of national power-reversing decades of efforts to reduce the numbers and role of nuclear weapons - even as the risks of miscalculation and escalation are rising. Sipri
• [New] Expanded fissile material production will bolster North Korea's efforts to develop a more survivable nuclear armament dispersed across several different launch platforms while also pursuing larger nuclear weapons capable of reaching the United States. American Enterprise Institute - AEI
• [New] Concerns over China's growing conventional and nuclear capabilities have led even Japan's Prime Minister to put forward the idea that Japan might change its policy of prohibiting U.S. warships with nuclear weapons from making port calls. Perry World House
• [New] Opposition to U.S. nuclear weapons in NATO was increasing, while Russia was still not seen as a threat and China was viewed as a growing economic power but not as a nuclear threat. Perry World House
• [New] There was a view - a hope - that additional arms control agreements covering the non-strategic nuclear weapons would follow, that the total size of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals would be further reduced, and that the risk of nuclear confrontation would continue to diminish. Perry World House
• [New] From the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian leaders have repeatedly issued thinly-veiled threats of nuclear weapons use, challenging long-standing international norms against nuclear coercion. EISS - Event Management System (Indico)
• [New] Top AI executives, including OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic's Dario Amodei, have urged Congress to require companies selling synthetic DNA and RNA to screen orders and verify customers, arguing that increasingly powerful AI could lower the barriers to creating dangerous biological weapons. Just Security
• [New] The world's AI luminaries love to warn us of impending planetary demise thanks to their creations, and they are back with a new warning: Rapidly improving frontier AI models, combined with readily available synthetic nucleic acids, could lower barriers to biological weapons development. theregister
• [New] The Trump administration has selected several nuclear start-ups that could be granted the right to tap into stocks of military-grade plutonium that were produced until the early 1990s for use in nuclear weapons. / USA Electricity Info
• Adjustments to U.S. policy aimed at reinforcing non-threat norms, including deeper engagement with Global South states, steps to reduce the salience of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, enhanced conventional deterrence within NATO, and a temporary pause in NATO expansion during active conflict. EISS - Event Management System (Indico)
• Although initial sanctions relief is anticipated, the full unfreezing of Iranian assets and comprehensive relief will likely be tied to either an Iranian commitment not to develop nuclear weapons or an enrichment pause. ZeroFOX
• The US has long demanded that Iran stop producing highly enriched uranium and dispose of its existing stockpile, which in theory could be used to create nuclear weapons. BBC News
• An adversary like Russia or China that has a large arsenal of nuclear weapons could overwhelm it. Just Security
• The lack of credible options could mean that NATO would be forced to end the war rather than risk a massive nuclear exchange should Russia resort to using a few tactical nuclear weapons. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• The United States will continue to use its nuclear weapons to protect NATO members, even as European allies take the lead on conventional forces. Military Times
• The Russians have threatened to use nuclear weapons in the context of their war in Ukraine and they have also lowered their nuclear doctrine threshold for using nuclear weapons. Pearls and Irritations
• The other big risk is that any deal reached is of low quality - with Iran effectively more aggressive than before and progress towards nuclear weapons just delayed. FinSec Partners
• Delivery systems now range from ICBMs, capable of reaching Hawaii if not the continental United States, to short-range missiles that could deliver so-called tactical nuclear weapons. UPI
• Japan, the United States, and South Korea have previously called for North Korea to irreversibly abandon its nuclear weapons, yet now North Korea has expressed that what it will establish as irreversible is its status as a nuclear power. The Diplomat
• War criminal Vladimir Putin has spent four years threatening the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine. House Armed Services Committee - Democrats
• The Telegraph that renewed debate about whether to acquire nuclear weapons in countries such as Poland, South Korea and Japan could leave the world in a very, very fragile position. Electricity Info
• China pledges not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states and nuclear-weapon-free zones. CNN

Last updated: 19 June 2026