Global Scans · Ukraine Crisis · Weekly Summary

• [New] Serbia and Ukraine will work together on the common goal of joining the European Union, and intend to finalize a mutual free trade agreement by the end of the year. financialpost
• [New] The Russia-Ukraine war has threatened to spill over into neighbouring countries. BBC News
• [New] Continued disruptions to Black Sea export flows and damage to export infrastructure, after intensified attacks between Russia and Ukraine, pushed up prices. The Guardian
• [New] Although rice prices held steady last month, global wheat prices increased 5.8%, amid continued disruptions to Black Sea exports caused by the ongoing full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the expected impact of recent heatwaves on crop yields in several countries. UN News
• [New] The EU's Spring 2026 Eurobarometer found that 81% support a common European defence and security policy, while 76% believe Russia's invasion of Ukraine threatens EU security. Armstrong Economics
• [New] Russia plans to significantly increase the use of jet-powered strike drones in air attacks on Ukraine - their share could reach 50%. Militarnyi
• [New] By positioning Ukraine as a transatlantic security contributor without extending Article 5 guarantees, NATO can incorporate Kiev's battlefield experience while limiting the risk of geopolitical escalation. Atlas Institute for International Affairs
• [New] Allies pledged €70 billion in military equipment, assistance, and training for Ukraine in 2026, with a sovereign commitment to sustain at least equivalent levels in 2027, financed entirely by European allies and Canada. Atlas Institute for International Affairs
• [New] With Ukraine increasingly effective at putting pressure on Russia, Moscow might respond with provocations against NATO's eastern flank. WSLS 10
• [New] Ukraine's growing fleet of Rafale jets could enable Ukraine to launch more SCALP / Storm Shadow missiles to augment and sustain its intermediate-range strike campaign. Critical Threats
• [New] Nobody anticipated the naval drones that Ukraine unleashed so effectively against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, while Moscow military planners were unprepared to defend against the long-range strike drones developed by Ukraine's vibrant defence tech industry. Atlantic Council
• [New] Mounting geopolitical instability, the threat from Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and pressure from Donald Trump have nudged Germany to abandon its postwar pacifism in favour of a stronger military footing. The Guardian
• [New] Ukraine has acquired capabilities that could support drone operations beyond its territory, but their use depends on the availability of launch infrastructure and operational priorities. CEPA
• [New] Ukraine will respond by undermining that war effort in accordance with its right to self-defence under international law. CEPA
• [New] As hostilities developed, Ukraine (and its EU and U.S. backers) acted based on the assumption that Russia could be strategically defeated in a protracted conflict by using high-tech weapons and imposing large-scale economic sanctions. Russia in Global Affairs
• Concerns about provoking Russia had the perverse effect of rewarding Russia's dangerous threats, including Russian nuclear saber-rattling. Hudson Institute
• If the Trump administration weakens NATO by withdrawing U.S. forces, stopping key weapons deliveries to Europeans who are willing to buy them, and canceling deployment of a U.S. weapon system out of fear of provoking Russia, it courts disaster. Hudson Institute
• Ukraine's theory of victory is that if it can kill more Russian soldiers than Russia can recruit, Russia will eventually have to negotiate peace. News
• Tomorrow's medics, such as the young soldiers and sailors now in the course at Fort Bragg, could face a deluge of responsibilities after stabilizing casualties: feeding them, tracking intravenous fluids, and dealing with infections, a significant problem in Ukraine. Business Insider
• There has been a slow drop-off in world leaders attending the G20 partly owing to geopolitical rifts over Ukraine and questions over its value, but by 2027 the economic fallout from the war in Iran may require economic and political coordination. The Guardian
• In a perspective accession, Ukraine could increase the EU's autonomy on plant-based protein from 76% to 86%. Agriculture and rural development
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted a reckless policy that accepts the risk of Russian drones entering European and NATO airspace as an acceptable consequence of its strikes in Ukraine. Critical Threats
• Putin is betting that higher food prices, at a time when the American war with Iran is already driving up the cost of oil and much else, will persuade Ukraine's trade partners, particularly in Europe, to press Kiev to de-escalate its attacks inside Russia. Time

Last updated: 10 August 2026