Our Scans · Surprise · Weekly Summary

• [New] A global risk-off event triggering Bank of England emergency coordination with other central banks would be the highest-impact wildcard. Lines.com
• [New] Consumer access to more affordable EVs could help accelerate the worldwide transition from fossil fuels - and offer welcome alternatives amid a global oil shock due to the Iran war. CNN
• [New] Whatever the fallout, it's hoped that Canadian businesses will adapt and that consumers will have sufficient financial resilience to weather a trade and oil shock storm. True North Mortgage
• [New] As a result of the ongoing global conflict and the oil shock, economic growth in Australia is forecasted to slow from an estimated rate of 2.25% in FY25 - FY26 to 1.75% in FY26 - FY27. Yahoo Finance
• [New] Neuberger Berman has been building proxy baskets of agricultural commodities that could benefit from the shock to energy markets and inflation, including corn, soybean oil, canola and livestock. Pro Farmer
• [New] Headwinds from the energy price shock, U.S. tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and a shrinking population will likely keep recession risks elevated. MarketsFarm
• [New] The Bailey speech leaned dovish in tone, but the BoE is in an impossible position: services inflation remains sticky, wage growth above 5% YoY, energy reversal is coming, and the Iran-driven oil shock has years of feed-through potential. investing.com
• Vulnerability sits in the structure of overlapping networks rather than in any single shock, and external events reach Central Asia through intermediary states rather than directly. The Astana Times
• The June Bootids are considered the most unpredictable meteor shower because of its history of surprise outbursts of activity. ABC News
• The biggest wildcard remains global instability - particularly the ongoing conflict involving Iran and its impact on energy markets. Electrical Trends
• The Middle East conflict remains an active wildcard: if it escalates further, commodity price shocks could delay the inflation outlook materially. Integrated Finance Group
• More immediately, the Iran shock will divert policy toward domestic fossil fuel support, deferring some climate ambition and creating near-term opportunities for domestic producers. Baillie Gifford
• If the Fed signals a less hawkish stance, gold could continue pushing higher; however, stronger dollar momentum or a hawkish surprise may create temporary pullbacks. IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog | Blog
• Iran deal moves Hormuz from crisis shock to execution risk. Fault Lines
• A prospective US-Iran peace deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has eased fears of an energy-driven inflation shock and rate hikes. LiquidityFinder
• The official announcement by Iran via the state-affiliated Tasnim News Agency that it will halt all mediated message exchanges with the United States and move to fully close the Strait of Hormuz appears to introduce another shock to global supply chains. PRS Group
• The 2026 Hormuz Crisis has triggered the largest and most complex energy shock in modern history, exposing deep vulnerabilities in Europe's energy system. HCSS
• The one wildcard that could push rates down is the geopolitical / energy story - if the US-Iran situation fully de-escalates and oil keeps falling, that helps. Fairway Home Mortgage - Metrolina Fairway
• There is a global commodity price shock with no clear resolution timeline that increases recession risk. BTRM
• The Hormuz shock, the Myanmar catastrophe, the SCS's managed-tension equilibrium, and the fiscal stress accumulating in Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines are compounding structural vulnerabilities that institutional activity alone cannot resolve. KBA13 INSIGHT
• The fertilizer supply shock triggered by disruptions in the Middle East has reinforced concerns about the agricultural sector's dependence on a relatively small number of fertilizer-producing regions. Global Agriculture
• Discussions highlighted the significant volatility shock across the sector caused by the Middle East conflict, with Citadel's commodities head noting that markets have underestimated the long-term supply chain disruptions caused by current geopolitical escalations. Commodities Global Summit
• Under a prolonged oil-shock scenario, global hours worked could fall by the equivalent of 14 million full-time jobs in 2026 and 38 million in 2027. International Labour Organization

Last updated: 08 July 2026