Our Scans · Surprise · Weekly Summary

• [New] Excess inventory and time buffers could delay the impact of China-instigated supply chain disruptions but in turn create a false sense of stability and surprise effects. Council on Foreign Relations
• [New] Actions taken now will determine if Middle East conflict is a manageable shock or evolves into a deeper global food security crisis. Feedstuffs
• [New] What is certain is the direction of structural forces: overcapacity will persist through at least 2027, emissions compliance costs will grow, and the Red Sea will remain a wildcard. Maritime Gateway - South Asia's Premier Shipping and Lo
• [New] The key risk is that the Middle East conflict turns what might have been a temporary energy shock into a more persistent inflation event. The Plan Advocate
• [New] Central banks might not be as aggressive as they were during the Covid-19 economic crisis given that monetary policy is not well equipped to deal with the commodity price shock due to the Iran war. CNBC
• [New] With 20% of global LNG and significant oil exports stranded at the Strait of Hormuz, the Supply-Side Shock is forcing global FMCG giants to over-order plastic packaging to secure their 2027 supply chains. LinkedIn
• [New] A geopolitical shock stemming from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, leading to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has exposed how energy security is repeatedly tested by disturbances in global supply. FTI Strategic Communications
• [New] The world has entered an era in which geopolitical risk is permanently priced into energy rather than treated as an external shock. UBI Business School - QS Top 20 worldwide
• [New] Crypto relevance: macro shock raises tail risk for risk assets - potential liquidity and price effects for crypto, DeFi and CEX flows, energy-linked tokens and institutional adoption; monitor bilateral supply deals with China / India. CryptoRank
• Kent county council said it was also concerned about electric shock risk if cables were damaged. The Guardian
• Hotter-than-expected April CPI and weak ADP jobs data, amplifying inflation fears from the Iran war's energy shock, which pushed oil and gold sharply higher while pressuring stock futures and strengthening the dollar, highlighting persistent Fed policy caution into 2026. IC Your Trading Edge | Official Blog | Blog
• In the US, with 91% of S&P 500 companies reporting, 84% have delivered a positive EPS surprise and 80% a positive revenue surprise, and the blended year-on-year earnings growth rate has reached 27.7%, up sharply from the 13.1% expected at the end of March. Saltus
• The Iran war energy shock will reshape global energy investment strategies. PV Tech
• Brent crude and domestic fuel pass-through will determine whether the Iran-related energy shock feeds durably into Brazilian consumer prices. Lines.com
• The war in Iran is affecting India beyond the global oil shock and trade disruptions. WITA
• Global growth is likely to slow modestly to 3.2% for the full year, hurt by the energy shock but avoiding recession, and then recover to 3.4% in 2027 as oil and gas prices ease. Morgan Stanley
• With AI and the consumer driving economic momentum in the U.S., the key question is whether the energy shock stays manageable or changes the path for inflation, central banks, and recession risks. Morgan Stanley
• The oil price shock due to the Iran war will take a toll on the German economy but is unlikely to trigger a recession. Global Banking & Finance Review
• Imported inflation from the energy shock could shift China from deflation to inflation. youth4planet
• The ECB has signaled that its rate path will be data-dependent as the Iran shock unfolds. investing.com
• The Middle East shock will worsen the UK's public finances. niesr

Last updated: 24 June 2026