Global Scans · Middle East · Weekly Summary

• [New] The Middle East is no longer defined merely by hidden proxy dynamics; it has broken out into highly disruptive, direct state-on-state kinetic warfare. chapters
• [New] The Middle East needs its own security framework - a regional defence architecture built by Middle Eastern states themselves - to reduce dependence on outside guarantors and manage common threats collectively. Brookings
• [New] Escalating tensions in the Middle East, ongoing concerns around Strait of Hormuz disruption, and growing fractures within OPEC + have heightened uncertainty across global energy markets. PwC
• [New] The Middle East conflict remains an active wildcard: if it escalates further, commodity price shocks could delay the inflation outlook materially. Integrated Finance Group
• [New] Recent conflict in the Middle East has highlighted the exposure of oil and gas trade to disruption at critical transport routes and maritime chokepoints. GOV.UK
• [New] The baseline projections see headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, peaking at 3.4% in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 and remaining above 3.0% until early 2027, driven by a surge in energy inflation as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. European Central Bank
• [New] Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Growth is forecast to drop to 1.6% in 2026 before recovering to 5.0% in 2027. World Bank
• [New] The escalating conflict in the Middle East, with the second day of U.S. strikes and the threat of more, has driven exactly the kind of risk-off flows that pressure cable. investing.com
• [New] Oman's ports could present an essential part of any land route alternatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) that avoid both the Gulf of Aden and the Strait of Hormuz. Global Security Review
• [New] A post-war Middle East settlement involving Iran, Iraq or Syria will need Turkish participation. Global Panorama
• [New] The Middle East crisis has added a new category of demand: advisory around energy security, defence procurement, and geopolitical risk is growing among corporate clients reassessing their supply chains and operational exposures. Capitalise
• [New] With the Middle East conflict making international trade challenging, UK exports are forecast to fall in 2026 by 0.2% (compared with 0.7% growth in the last forecast) before recovering to 1.3% growth in 2027. British Chambers of Commerce
• [New] The major geopolitical risks currently underway are the Middle East situation, the Ukraine situation, and U.S.-China relations. note
• [New] Non-store based distribution channel, Accessories product type, and Middle East & Africa region represent the highest-growth investment vectors through 2034. IMARC Group
• [New] The rapid expansion of Japanese-style sushi chains across Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East is a structural driver of foodservice volume growth through 2034. IMARC Group
• [New] The escalation in the Middle East is pushing oil higher and lifting inflation risks, which in turn is reinforcing expectations that central banks stay tighter for longer. Money Talks News
• [New] Despite weakening somewhat in 2026, investment is expected to outpace GDP growth throughout the projection horizon as uncertainty related to the war in the Middle East recedes, digitalization efforts intensify and defence and infrastructure spending increases. European Central Bank
• [New] The conflict in the Middle East is weighing on the short-term growth outlook, with energy price shocks and uncertainty proving stronger and more persistent than previously expected, further reducing purchasing power and confidence. European Central Bank
• [New] The Middle East and Africa are expected to have steady growth over the forecast years, driven by increasing investments in technology and a growing recognition of AI's use across various sectors. Precedence Research
• [New] Fading hopes for a near-term resolution to the Middle East war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are stirring fears that energy price pressures could morph into wider, systemic inflation. ST
• [New] The conflict in the Middle East has kept oil elevated, with futures pricing above pre-conflict levels well into 2028. Wealthstone Group
• [New] Risk of congestion rising due to a surge in cargo volume as it becomes an alternative hub amid the Middle East crisis. note

Last updated: 21 June 2026