Global Scans · Inflation · Weekly Summary

• [New] A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter. Stratfor
• [New] The Fed must weigh the risk of entrenching inflation expectations against the risk of tightening into a trade-war-induced growth slowdown - a policy trilemma with no clean resolution. UCapital24 Media
• [New] Resumed Middle East hostilities, increasing tariffs, and the artificial intelligence buildout suggest upside risks to inflation, creating problems for the Fed and hinting at tightening in 2026. Morningstar, Inc.
• [New] For ASEAN, AMRO lowered its average inflation estimate to 3.6% from 4% for 2026 and to 3.1% from 3.2% for 2027. BusinessWorld Online
• [New] Both inflation projections would put the headline print well above the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' 3% target for two straight years, but below its 6.4% estimate for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027. BusinessWorld Online
• [New] AMRO cut its Philippine inflation forecast for 2026 to 5.7% from 6% previously but kept it at 4.1% for 2027. BusinessWorld Online
• [New] The FOMC will not see any July inflation data before this week's meeting, so the chief economist expects the Fed to keep interest rates at their current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Kiplinger
• [New] Annual inflation touched a new record low of 2.76% in early July, and most of Mexico's central bankers think inflation will remain below their 3% target for the rest of the year because of sluggish growth. Financial IT
• [New] Fed officials express growing worry over persistent inflation, with some expecting rate hikes in 2026 despite no immediate increase, as inflation pressures rise from fuel prices and economic factors. ST
• [New] The US Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% amid ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices. ST
• [New] Analysts expect Singapore to keep its monetary policy steady in the light of mild inflation risks so far, despite the continued tensions in the Middle East driving up oil prices. ST
• [New] Hawkish voices on the Fed are growing louder, while noting that a persistent surge in energy prices and/or more signs the AI boom is stoking inflation could trigger a rate hike. Fortune
• [New] Although Japan's core inflation has remained below the BoJ's 2% target over the last four months, analysts predict a jump in the last quarter of the year to the mid-2% range on higher oil prices following the Iran war. The Guardian
• [New] If inflation were to reignite amid escalations in the U.S.-Iran war, it could raise the probability of a rate hike later in 2026. CBS News
• [New] The rise in bond yields comes as worries over a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 eased in recent weeks, given recent softer than expected inflation prints. Precious Metals International Ltd.
• [New] Following the escalation of the conflict in Iran, which has driven up oil prices again, the threat of higher inflation has sent costs upwards for lenders and they have, in response, raised rates. The Money Pages
• [New] There is justifiable concern that the re-escalation of the Middle East conflict and the rebound in oil prices will keep inflation higher for longer. investing.com
• [New] Oxford Economics expects headline PCE inflation to ease to 3.7% in June, largely because of lower energy prices. investing.com
• [New] Rising energy prices and tensions in the Middle East - including threats of strikes on Iranian infrastructure and renewed attacks in the Red Sea - continue to fuel inflation concerns and risk-off sentiment. investing.com
• [New] Crude oil prices are still volatile, farther-dated futures prices remain higher than before the Middle East conflict, and even the earlier surge in spot prices could show up in core inflation. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
• A longer-term opportunity exists in slightly extending duration to lock in higher yields on the assumption that eventually the Fed will return to lowering interest rates as inflation moves back down toward its 2% target. Commonwealth Financial Network
• Inflation uncertainty remains high given Middle East tensions, but we believe today's higher yields offer better compensation for interest rate risk. Royal London
• While slowing inflation is a significant milestone toward the Fed's 2% target, renewed geopolitical friction surrounding the Strait of Hormuz poses an immediate upside threat to energy costs and headline inflation. Rhame & Gorrell Wealth Management | The Woodlands Finan

Last updated: 02 August 2026