Our Scans · EU Exit Export · Weekly Summary

• [New] New Zealand must secure first mover advantage and a strong foothold as African economies start to trade, or we risk losing out to the EU, to the US and to China. RNZ
• [New] The short-term prospects for EU agricultural markets in 2026 remain robust, despite the repercussions of the conflict in the Middle East which are adding to pre-existing challenges and risks, including weather-related ones, animal diseases and persistent trade tensions. Agriculture and rural development
• [New] Having a European production base does more than circumvent the EU's tariff regime on Chinese-made EVs; it could help insulate Polestar from the US' connected vehicle rules and EU import tariffs on Chinese-made vehicle. Automotive World
• [New] For buyers with flexible timing, waiting to see whether EU-US talks produce any tariff relief before committing to a European import could be a worthwhile delay - and dealers on high-end imports may offer increasingly attractive incentives as overall sales volumes soften. CarQuill USA
• Despite the recent signing of new trade agreements, EU export growth is forecast to remain modest - at 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027 - constrained by competitiveness challenges, tariffs, persistent global uncertainty, and the lagged effects of the euro's appreciation. BusinessEurope
• In July, EU leaders accepted a one-sided trade deal in the hope of convincing Trump to keep backing Ukraine, and Japan and South Korea got their tariff levels lowered, in deals signed in July and November, respectively, by pledging to invest in the U.S. economy. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• National export control authorities such as the German Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control or the Council of the EU could impose export controls on products that are critical to US value chains, for example equipment for the semiconductor industry. Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
• Imports of most EU products to the U.S. will face a 15% tariff rate. Passle
• Under the trade deal, the EU will remove duties on imports of U.S. industrial goods and introduce preferential access for certain seafood and farm products. Passle

Last updated: 16 July 2026