Our Scans · Moscow · Weekly Summary

• [New] Moscow could continue the war in Ukraine for years, sacrifice its own economy, and expand hybrid operations against NATO members, including provocations in the Baltic region. Armstrong Economics
• [New] If Beijing does force Moscow to cooperate on more sensitive military technologies, there are associated risks for the United States and its allies. CEPA
• [New] Beijing might be tempted to use its advantage to pressure Moscow for certain concessions or accommodations regarding MTC and beyond, in exchange for continuing delivery of critical components for Russia's war machine. CEPA
• [New] A formal alliance would risk antagonizing the US and its allies, as it would be understood as inherently anti-US and anti-Western, and therefore counterproductive to Moscow and Beijing's shared desire for strategic stability. CEPA
• [New] Beijing is concerned that Moscow could create problems for China, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, compelling it to keep its Russian partner both close and contained. CEPA
• [New] Cheap, attritable platforms allow Moscow to probe NATO defences and impose costs with lower risk to high-value assets. Atlas Institute for International Affairs
• [New] Importantly, the 2026 document assesses that Moscow almost certainly remains confident that it will prevail on the battlefield in Ukraine and force a settlement on its terms. Belfer Center
• Moving forward, Moscow will struggle to keep current economic policies, balance inflation, and maintain high levels of defence spending. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• Some fear that Moscow will be capable of continued aggression soon after the war in Ukraine ends. Foreign Affairs Magazine
• Military-grade drones could help hunt ISIS-K, but they could also give Moscow visibility over Afghan terrain, border and customs zones, and security movements. The Cipher Brief
• The strategic logic is straightforward: if Russia were able to capture the remaining major urban centers of Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk Oblast, Moscow could claim to have achieved one of its principal war aims. www.lvivherald.com

Last updated: 09 July 2026