Our Scans · Moscow · Weekly Summary

• [New] Moscow remains focused on the threat from NATO in the West, while Beijing is focused on the Asia-Pacific region and escalation in the South China Sea. CEPA
• [New] Moscow has been careful not to push too hard, as the Kremlin understands that excessive pressure could backfire and fuel further anti-Russian sentiment. The Guardian
• [New] Potential targets in Moscow could include energy facilities. Ukraine's Arms Monitor
• [New] Moscow will continue to pose a serious threat to Western countries, and to Europe in particular, but it is much less influential than it might have been without the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. New Eurasian Strategies Centre
• [New] Enhanced bilateral agreements in the military and security sphere are reinforced by the fact that Moscow and Beijing share similar threat perceptions. CEPA
• [New] Competition with the United States will continue to drive Sino-Russian military relations, especially in areas of common interest where Moscow and Beijing could force multiply - for instance, in Central Asia, Africa, and the Arctic. CEPA
• The central axis of global politics runs through Beijing and Washington, with Moscow as a disruptive secondary partner and Europe mostly offstage. Arcano Global Research
• Moscow has intensified its deadly aerial campaign across Ukraine, seeking to exploit Kiev's shortages and continued vulnerability to ballistic missile attacks. 29 News
• The United States sees an opportunity to strengthen European energy security, deepen ties with Central Asia, add another vector to pressure Iran from the north, and reduce the coercive power Moscow derives from frozen conflicts and energy dependence. Forbes
• Massive drills of Russia's nuclear forces earlier this month and a series of belligerent statements from Moscow warning Kiev's European allies about possible retaliation for what the Kremlin cast as their involvement in Ukrainian drone attacks have underlined Putin's intention to up the ante. WSB-TV Channel 2 - Atlanta
• Moscow would like U.S power to be more constrained by international law - even while, as far as its own actions are concerned, the Kremlin will continue to claim to be beyond reproach. European Union Institute for Security Studies
• The UK is connected by about 60 undersea cables, which British officials say are increasingly under threat from Moscow, with a 30% rise in Russian vessels spotted in UK waters over the past few years. BBC News
• Moscow will launch consistent and systematic strikes on Kiev to target drone-making facilities and decision-making centers. WSB-TV Channel 2 - Atlanta
• If Moscow achieves its goals in Ukraine, it will likely be emboldened to apply greater pressure on other European and NATO states, whether through military intimidation, hybrid operations, or probing of borders, airspace, and infrastructure. The Soufan Center
• By interfering with navigation, timing, logistics, and transportation systems, Moscow is probing vulnerabilities in the digital foundations of modern European economies while avoiding direct military confrontation. Robert Lansing Institute
• The overall risk of direct military confrontation remains low, primarily because Moscow will almost certainly aim to calibrate its actions below the threshold of conventional conflict to avoid triggering a unified NATO response. Crisis24
• Moscow will almost certainly raise its military posture in Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea via parallel naval and air drills. Crisis24
• Moscow is combining kinetic sabotage, intimidation, and coordinated information campaigns to engineer a persistent climate of fear among pro-Ukraine actors and Russian dissidents across the Baltic States, while shaping contested identity narratives in key border regions such as Narva, Estonia. Crisis24
• While the likelihood of a constitutional redesign in Russia that would enable major structural transformations (including legal pathways to secession) remains low, a change of leadership in Moscow is realistic, and it could serve as a trigger for political change in Grozny. Atlantic Council

Last updated: 25 June 2026