Our Scans · Belarus · Weekly Summary

• [New] Companies with exposure to Russia, Belarus or higher-risk jurisdictions should closely monitor the legislative process and assess whether their activities - including in the financial, energy and trade sectors - may be impacted by the proposed measures. Global Sanctions and Export Controls Blog
• [New] Belarus and Pakistan are expected to sign a memorandum of understanding within two months, after which Pakistani nationals will be able to begin migrating to Belarus for work. iSANS
• [New] The Russian military could attempt to sever the Suwalki Gap from Kaliningrad and Belarus to isolate the Baltic states before NATO could respond. Al Jazeera
• Deficits are expected to remain in the Ukraine-Belarus-Poland and Germany-Poland border zones. ISCIENCES
• Russia has parked its new Oreshnik tactical nuclear missile in Belarus since last year, and has threatened to attack European arms manufacturing and military sites with it. Al Jazeera
• Unrest in Latvia, a Narva incident in Estonia, pressure from Belarus toward Lithuania, sabotage inside Poland, cyberattacks across Europe, and intensified Kaliningrad activity could all emerge simultaneously. Global Defense Insight
• Pressure from Belarus westward combined with simultaneous activity from Kaliningrad could create the impression that the Baltic states risk becoming partially isolated from NATO reinforcement. Global Defense Insight
• Pressure moving northward from Belarus into southeastern Latvia could create the impression of partial encirclement around Latgale while stretching Latvian and NATO defences across multiple axes simultaneously. Global Defense Insight
• Russia could stage exercises in Kaliningrad and Belarus, conduct airspace or maritime provocations, or create incidents near the Suwalki Gap. Robert Lansing Institute
• Because without continued resistance, Belarus risks being fully absorbed into the Russian state - its sovereignty erased, and its people gradually Russified. New Eastern Europe

Last updated: 23 June 2026