Our Scans · Economics · Weekly Summary

• [New] As ongoing global political conflicts, particularly between the US, Israel, and Iran, continue to disrupt global oil markets, driving prices higher and threatening Asia's energy security, Asia's heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels is acutely exposed to economic risks. Fossil Fuel Treaty
• [New] Supply chains continue to adapt, benefiting economies such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, while energy reallocation and AI-driven semiconductor demand sustain trade growth despite geopolitical disruptions and protectionist pressures. BBVA research
• [New] Russia's economic growth could stagnate this year as high borrowing costs chose capital investment. Critical Threats
• [New] The green industrial policy objectives of decarbonization (delivering the EU 2040 climate target at least cost), competitiveness (preserving the price and innovation performance of European industry in open markets) and economic security are often complementary but, in some cases, conflict. Bruegel | The Brussels-based economic think tank
• [New] The IAA is built upon an explicit industrialization objective: that the share of the EU economy devoted to manufacturing should grow from 14% today to 20% by 2035. Bruegel | The Brussels-based economic think tank
• [New] Bangladesh offers a stunning $100 billion investment opportunity and may become the next industrial and digital economy center with a population of 170 million, 65% of whom are in the working age group! The Daily Star
• [New] France is in an economic situation where it says it cannot increase that spending as Germany now is promising a 40% net increase in troops by 2035. AlbertMohler.com
• [New] Under the Economic Transition Scenario, the combined impact of fleet electrification and fuel efficiency improvements avoids 25.8m b/d of road fuel demand by 2040, four times larger than the oil displacement across aviation, marine and petrochemicals sectors combined. BloombergNEF
• [New] 89% of chief economists expect global growth to weaken over the coming year and 94% expect inflation to increase, principally because of higher energy and food prices. Crawford School of Public Policy
• [New] AI will likely provide a sustained increase to economic growth over the 2030s. GOV.UK
• [New] By 2030, AI can automate most tasks that a remote human worker could perform, driving major scientific breakthroughs, transforming public services, and creating an economic boom. GOV.UK
• [New] Global competition is expected to continue, as economies become increasingly reliant on technology to drive growth and spheres of influence emerge, led by the United States and China. GOV.UK
• [New] Loan growth in Australia's banking sector will reach 6.6% y-o-y at end-2026, up from an estimated 6.3% at end-2025, supported by effective monetary policy transmission, sustained demand across housing, commercial and government lending and favourable economic conditions. Fitch Solutions
• [New] The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. AGU Journals
• [New] Persistent geopolitical fragmentation raises the risk of moves away from the US dollar as the dominant reserve currency, leaving medium-sized economies like the UK navigating a more complex, multi-aligned global financial system. GOV.UK
• [New] Economist Taylor Wang at HSBC warned this month that a China-EU trade dispute could threaten Chinese exports; Europe accounted for a big share of China's exports of electric vehicles, solar panels and lithium-ion batteries. ABC News
• [New] Even a slightly rosier outlook could mean that rather than face a recession, the global economy will face a period of weaker than previously expected growth in the third quarter, before global GDP growth recovers to its pre-conflict pace of just over 3% in late 2026 and into 2027. The Guardian
• [New] While headwinds are expected to temper the pace of expansion, the WB's latest Viet Nam Economic Update projects growth will moderate to a still-robust 6.8% in 2026, following an 8% expansion in 2025. World Bank Group
• [New] China's economy is projected to grow 4.2% in 2026, down from 5% in 2025. The Times Of India
• [New] Developing economies are expected to grow 3.6% in 2026, down from 4.4% in 2025. The Times Of India
• [New] India is projected to remain among the world's fastest-growing economies. Economic Times
• [New] Increasing data privacy regulations and the need to reduce security breaches in rapidly industrializing economies are expected to keep Asia-Pacific's growth momentum as the highest CAGR region during the forecast period. Dimension Market Research
• [New] While the UK economy has shown some welcome resilience in 2026, the expected headline growth figure of 0.9% for 2026 masks underlying concerns. British Chambers of Commerce

Last updated: 19 June 2026