Our Scans · (SFR.6.01) Energy Price Shock · Weekly Summary

• [New] Food inflation is expected to peak at 3.7% in the second quarter of 2027, reflecting increasing domestic food commodity prices related to higher energy and fertiliser costs, as well as other indirect effects of the energy price shock. European Central Bank
• UK GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.8% in 2026, down from 1.4% in 2025, as pressures from a new energy price shock push up inflation, weigh on spending and leads to potential further tightening by the Bank of England. KPMG
• Crypto relevance: macro shock raises tail risk for risk assets - potential liquidity and price effects for crypto, DeFi and CEX flows, energy-linked tokens and institutional adoption; monitor bilateral supply deals with China / India. CryptoRank
• The cost of reaching Net Zero by 2050 could equal the economic impact of just one fossil fuel price shock similar to the 2022 energy crisis. ESG News
• A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz combined with damage to energy facilities could spark a price shock that pressures the Fed to tighten policy specifically to keep inflation expectations anchored. investing.com
• Headwinds from the energy price shock, U.S. tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and a shrinking population will likely keep recession risks elevated. MarketsFarm
• The Bank of England has signalled that interest rates could rise in 2026 as it attempts to curb inflation following a significant energy price shock from the Iran war. BBC News
• The Federal Reserve may treat the current energy-price shock as transitory and avoid tightening its policy; but it will also recognize that the broader disruption to commodity supplies could be prolonged. The Jakarta Post
• With the war in the Middle East now gradually shifting from a pure energy price shock towards an energy supply and broader supply chain shock, the German economy is once again at the center of an exogenous, global, disruption. investing.com
• The current Iran War energy security threat represents more than a temporary price shock; it reveals fundamental structural weaknesses in how modern economies have organised their energy infrastructure around geographically concentrated production nodes and narrow transit corridors. Discovery Alert
• Inflation risks tied to the global energy shock will dominate Asia's economic calendar in the coming week, with price data and business surveys set to test how quickly higher costs are feeding through. financialpost
• The rise in UK interest rate expectations could harm growth as much as the energy price shock itself. City AM
• A more prolonged price and supply shock in global energy markets could cause more pronounced credit damage. Newswire
• UK GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.7% in 2026, down from 1.3% in 2025, as pressures from a fresh energy price shock push up inflation, weigh on spending and delay interest rate cuts. KPMG
• The 35% odds on 5% + inflation represent the tail risk scenario - one where the Iran conflict reignites, oil retests $114+ per barrel, and the energy shock compounds into a broader price spiral. AOL
• British agricultural production - already under margin pressure - faces higher input costs for the 2026 growing season, with potential flow-through to food prices in Q3 and Q4 2026 that will add to headline CPI in the months when energy price shock second-round effects are also building. US Recession News
• The Resolution Foundation has modelled that prolonged high gas prices could increase the energy price cap by £500 in July - a second consecutive annual energy cost shock hitting households already squeezed by the prior inflationary period. US Recession News
• The energy price shock has squashed 2026's anticipated boost to global growth from the artificial intelligence investment boom. The Guardian

Last updated: 19 June 2026