Our Scans · (SFR.5.00) Interstate Conflict · Weekly Summary

• Geoeconomic Confrontation has become the most urgent agenda for leaders in 2026, overtaking interstate armed conflict, last year's top risk, which has dropped to second place. null
• Geoeconomic Confrontation has become the most urgent global risk for leaders, surpassing interstate armed conflict from the previous year. null
• The potential for 'mass migration, increased demands for peacekeeping and peace enforcement, and intrastate and interstate conflict' that the DSR acknowledges will arise from climate change, is not apparently a significant factor in Australia's new defence strategy. Pearls and Irritations
• If a large-scale interstate conflict in another part of the world were to curb Washington's capacity to project power in Europe, Moscow could find an opening to move preventively against perceived threats on its periphery. Belfer Center
• 2026 identifies geoeconomic confrontation as the biggest risk for the year, followed by concerns about interstate conflict, extreme weather, societal polarization, and misinformation. Modern Diplomacy
• More likely, as Western policymakers focus on the resurgent threat of inter-state conflict, they will try to shift the resolution of intra-state conflicts like Afghanistan to regional solutions. United States Institute of Peace
• The Strait of Hormuz is bordered by active, assertive states such as Iran, which means the potential for interstate conflict is relatively high. The Conversation
• Interstate armed conflict is a new entrant to the top 10 risk rankings in 2024. Spend Matters
• Interstate armed conflict enters the top risk rankings for the next two years. Legacy IAS Academy
• While the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israeli military campaign in Gaza capture headlines, simmering tensions across the globe threaten to erupt into renewed interstate conflict. The Indian Express
• New Zealand faces a less stable wider Indo-Pacific region where inter-state conflict could occur and security considerations already dominate key partners' thinking. WeCreate
• In a world of renewed great power competition and open interstate conflict, states should resist the optimism bias that incentivizes them to plan for short, sharp wars, discounting the true costs and risks of conflict. The Strategy Bridge
• South Asia's Brahmaputra has been cited as one of the basins most at risk for interstate water conflict. United States Institute of Peace
• Today, the potential for direct inter-state conflict is rising as proxy warfare declines and Iran attempts to maintain the credibility of its forward deterrence. Jadaliyya -
• Misinformation and disinformation has risen rapidly in rankings to first place for the two-year time frame, ahead of risks like extreme weather events and interstate armed conflict, adding that the risk is likely to become more acute as elections in several economies take place in 2024. Investopedia
• To cope with urgent challenges such as interstate conflict and large-scale migration, U.S. policymakers will need a keen, nuanced sense of which powers and advantages their country possesses. Foreign Affairs Magazine

Last updated: 19 June 2026