Global Scans · Trade · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Global trade policies could be upended with a new President in the White House, Brexit, a potential break-up of the European Union and China reacting to these changes in profound ways.

• [New] Stock index futures had weakened in overnight trade as crude oil prices jumped more than +2% when Iran threatened to suspend talks and close the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Barchart.com
• [New] Crude prices initially opened higher in overnight trade when Iran threatened to suspend talks and close the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and after President Trump threatened military action against Iran if Hezbollah militants continue to attack Israel. Barchart.com
• [New] Indonesia has begun the transition to a state-controlled export system, and it is expected that, from 2027, the majority of palm oil exports will be channelled through a single state-owned entity. Lipsa
• [New] A Perfect Storm of Costs, Tariffs & Compliance: 79% of supply chains expect costs to be a major supply chain disruption in 2026, with materials, shipping, and labour pressures nearly doubling since 2024. QIMA
• [New] The US-Iran war exposed 10% of the global diesel trade and 20% of jet fuel to disruption. ST
• [New] With bilateral merchandise trade nearing $27 billion and a target of $50 billion by 2030, both countries are focusing on innovation-led growth. Yourstory
• [New] Given infrastructure damage and limited alternative export capacity, LNG markets are expected to remain tight, with prices unlikely to return to pre conflict levels until 2028. / Japan Westpac IQ
• [New] More broadly, cooperation on corridors, energy security, reconstruction, and regional trade would give the U.S.-Turkey relationship a foundation that could survive leadership changes on both sides. Brookings
• [New] If Trump follows through on his promises to Iran, he will be handing the Mullahs the keys to a competing trade corridor with IMEC, called the International North-South Transport Corridor, or INSTC, and would totally bypass Israel altogether. Technocracy News
• [New] The FDA's AI-driven import screening uses machine learning models to prioritize inspection of higher-risk shipments among the millions of food import lines entering the US each year. iComplai
• [New] Disrupted and higher-priced logistics will stimulate short-term mitigation choices and possibly affect long-term trade connectedness worldwide. ISS Africa
• [New] Supply chains continue to adapt, benefiting economies such as Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico, while energy reallocation and AI-driven semiconductor demand sustain trade growth despite geopolitical disruptions and protectionist pressures. BBVA research
• [New] In addition to tariff-related challenges, international commerce is now facing supply disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East. BBVA research
• [New] Computer component shortages driven by AI demands, global tariffs, and disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle Eastern shipping route key to global trade, are likely the biggest economic factors at play here, they said. Northeastern Global News
• [New] The second half of 2026 is expected to bring increased complexity for supply chains across Latin America as businesses navigate rising consumer demand, evolving trade patterns, weather-related disruptions, and growing pressure on logistics networks. WOF Group
• [New] Looking ahead, trade activity across Latin America is expected to remain strong through the second half of 2026. WOF Group
• [New] Maritime chokepoints present a critical vulnerability, as over half of global maritime trade passes through just four narrow straits: Panama Canal, Suez Canal, Strait of Hormuz and Strait of Malacca. GOV.UK
• [New] More recently, conflict in the Middle East has highlighted the exposure of oil and gas trade to disruption at critical transport corridors and maritime chokepoints. GOV.UK
• [New] External risks have intensified following an announcement by the Office of the United States Trade Representative introducing tariffs of between 10% to 12.5% on products associated with forced labour concerns, a measure that could affect segments of Mexican supply chains. Mexico Business
• [New] The anti-Canada zeitgeist within the White House is high and growing, increasing the danger of new trade activism with no warning or economic justification. Policy Magazine
• [New] The Arab Gulf states will rapidly invest in alternative export routes via new pipeline networks to reduce reliance on both the Strait of Hormuz and the American military's willingness and ability to keep it open. Brookings
• Billions of dollars in announced investments in Mexican industrial real estate, semiconductor packaging facilities, and automotive supply chains are predicated on the assumption that North American trade preferences will survive. Mexicanist
• Global trade will be shaped by an emerging new imperative, to stop China's export juggernaut and end its lock on the supply of strategic inputs - from pharmaceutical components to critical minerals to essential chips that are vital for industries around the world. The Guardian

Last updated: 25 June 2026