Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] Fears of a recession loom large as the battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz enters a dramatic new phase and dashes any hope of a swift end to the conflict in the Middle East. 9News
• [New] Goldman Sachs Asset Management argues recent corporate credit spread widening is more noise than signal, suggesting markets may be overpricing recession risk. The Idea Farm
• [New] Even a slightly rosier outlook could mean that rather than face a recession, the global economy will face a period of weaker than previously expected growth in the third quarter, before global GDP growth recovers to its pre-conflict pace of just over 3% in late 2026 and into 2027. The Guardian
• [New] There is a global commodity price shock with no clear resolution timeline that increases recession risk. BTRM
• [New] At one point in the fall, a Bloomberg model projected a 100% risk of a US recession over the next 12 months. CNN
• The UK will fall into recession towards the end of the year as energy costs soar. The Council of Industry
• Global growth is likely to slow modestly to 3.2% for the full year, hurt by the energy shock but avoiding recession, and then recover to 3.4% in 2027 as oil and gas prices ease. Morgan Stanley
• Broader concerns about global recession risk or demand erosion from electric vehicle adoption have added complexity to the 2026 demand picture. Mudrex Learn
• Downward Price Pressure (Bearish Factors) Global Manufacturing Slowdown: Some analysts predict a potential deterioration in global manufacturing conditions or a general economic slowdown/recession could curb overall industrial demand for aluminum. sooktrading.com
• Consumer, business and investor confidence could collapse, which could lead to markedly stronger inflation and subdued economic growth, if not a global recession. Desjardins.com
• Coupled with the chance of a prolonged conflict with Iran, and it could spell recession. CUSO Magazine
• Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession in 2026 as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer's government, a leading thinktank has warned. The Guardian
• If the composite PMI stays below 50, recession-risk concerns will rise. Otet Markets Blog

Last updated: 24 June 2026