Global Scans · Recession · Weekly Summary

• [New] 2026 marks the beginning of the Panic Cycle, 2027 carries the highest risk of broader international war, and the economic consequences will intensify into 2028 as recession and civil unrest spread. / Ukraine Armstrong Economics
• Higher interest rates have curbed economic growth, and many believe a recession state-side is likely - and that, at best, Canada will remain in a slow - to no-growth mode, if not in a recession itself. SenCanada
• A conflict involving Taiwan, a major cyberwar between nation-states, disruptions to critical shipping routes, or sanctions-related financial fragmentation could generate second-order effects that are difficult to capture through traditional recession assumptions. Forbes
• The ECB's decision must balance the need to address rising inflation with the risk of sparking a recession, as economic expansion is already sagging. Saxo Bank A/S (Headquarters)
• Under the OECD's prolonged disruption scenario, global growth slows from 3.4% last year to 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, potentially pushing some economies into or close to recession. WSB-TV Channel 2 - Atlanta
• Both the US and eurozone economies have their weaknesses and any talk about recession risks would quickly turn the direction of real rates. investing.com
• Fears of a recession loom large as the battle for control over the Strait of Hormuz enters a dramatic new phase and dashes any hope of a swift end to the conflict in the Middle East. 9News
• Goldman Sachs Asset Management argues recent corporate credit spread widening is more noise than signal, suggesting markets may be overpricing recession risk. The Idea Farm
• Even a slightly rosier outlook could mean that rather than face a recession, the global economy will face a period of weaker than previously expected growth in the third quarter, before global GDP growth recovers to its pre-conflict pace of just over 3% in late 2026 and into 2027. The Guardian
• There is a global commodity price shock with no clear resolution timeline that increases recession risk. BTRM
• At one point in the fall, a Bloomberg model projected a 100% risk of a US recession over the next 12 months. CNN
• The UK will fall into recession towards the end of the year as energy costs soar. The Council of Industry
• Global growth is likely to slow modestly to 3.2% for the full year, hurt by the energy shock but avoiding recession, and then recover to 3.4% in 2027 as oil and gas prices ease. Morgan Stanley

Last updated: 08 July 2026