Global Scans · Ecosystem collapse · Weekly Summary

• [New] A partial collapse of key ecosystems could increase annual global - sovereign debt interest payments by $162 billion. ASLA
• [New] The collapse of the environment in key ecosystems could spell disaster for the global economy by increasing borrowing costs. Heriot-Watt University
• [New] The AMOC, which transports warm water northwards and cold water southwards at depth, is expected to gradually weaken rather than collapse this century. GOV.UK
• [New] Strategic adaptation funding is increasingly tied to political alignment, leaving vital regions, such as major breadbasket areas, the Amazon rainforest, and climate tipping points in the Arctic, highly vulnerable to escalating hazards. GOV.UK
• [New] Uneven climate leaves the world's most vulnerable regions exposed to escalating hazards, threatening livelihoods, while fragmented governance hampers coordinated mitigation and adaptation. GOV.UK
• [New] Even if hazards look similar in 2040, total climate risk still varies significantly because societies differ in how exposed and vulnerable they are. GOV.UK
• [New] A weakening AMOC has serious environmental consequences, with its collapse considered a major potential tipping point, or key threshold within Earth's systems, beyond which substantial and irreversible environmental change will occur. Live Science
• [New] Iran, of course, is acutely vulnerable to water risks. Scientific American
• [New] By comparison, the North West, the North East and Yorkshire & the Humber will be less vulnerable to severe water stress. Kingfisher group
• [New] The global system is moving toward more electricity, more renewables, and lower import dependence, yet it remains vulnerable to the physical and geopolitical risks of fossil fuel trade. ASUENE | The enterprise climate cloud platform | Carbon
• [New] Kenya is facing a widening gap between growing demand for reliable water sanitation and irrigation, and limited climate-vulnerable supply with inadequate service coverage, high losses, low storage, and overreliance on rain-fed systems, turning water insecurity into a macrofiscal risk. World Bank Live
• [New] Extreme heat is becoming a major public health threat, especially for vulnerable communities with limited access to healthcare, cooling and reliable electricity. UN News
• Long-term peace in the Indo-Pacific will depend not on summit diplomacy, but on a shared recognition that destabilizing Taiwan risks triggering the very collapse trap that all sides seek to avoid. E-International Relations
• For Beijing, avoiding a collapse trap depends on an objective assessment of both China's national comprehensive power and the scale of international resistance it could face. E-International Relations
• Although the Trump-Xi summit might temporarily ease U.S.-China tensions, the deeper and longer-term issue concerning Taiwan, the United States, and China is how to avoid a potential military confrontation over the Taiwan Strait and the trap of systemic collapse. E-International Relations
• WFP needs $13 billion to reach 110 million of the most vulnerable in 2026, but expects to receive roughly half. African Agribusiness
• Iran flaunted its tightened grip over the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday with video of its commandos storming a huge cargo ship, after the collapse of peace talks that Washington had hoped would open the world's most important shipping corridor. Insurance Journal
• Extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, together with critical changes to Earth systems are ranked as the most severe long-term global risks over the next ten years, alongside misinformation and disinformation and adverse outcomes of AI technologies. SpringerLink
• By moving toward impact-based forecasting and using tools like HeatRisk and Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature, and effectively communicating risks and prevention strategies, we can better protect vulnerable populations and infrastructure. The American Meteorological Society
• Unchecked population growth, industrialization, and resource depletion could lead to ecological and economic collapse. SpringerLink
• Population collapse is a far greater risk to civilization than climate change. Bluesky Thinking

Last updated: 21 June 2026