Global Scans · Conflict · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Rising tensions around are bringing new and regional geopolitical threats and the possibility of eventual global war. Keep abreast of the unfolding drama and know where the risks and opportunities are in the world.

• [New] The Iran war exposed the dangers of relying on a single chokepoint for vital oil and gas exports, leaving Gulf governments with a clear strategic imperative: diversify - at all costs. MarineLink
• [New] If the Iran conflict drags into the summer driving season, demand destruction becomes a real risk for cyclical names. investing.com
• [New] The world's largest insurance marketplace is set to break the Strait of Hormuz logjam with a new $400m (£316m) war-risk facility. City AM
• [New] The US-Iran war exposed 10% of the global diesel trade and 20% of jet fuel to disruption. ST
• [New] Global markets remain dominated by the Iran war, with oil, equities and currencies moving sharply as investors react to military escalation, inflation risk and the prospect of higher European interest rates. CPA | The Credit Protection Association
• [New] There is a high probability that the Eritrean government and the SAF will support any TPLF mobilization to control western Tigray by providing weapons and hosting the TDF in their territories for coordinated operation against western Tigray. Acled
• [New] Both parties and neighboring countries like Sudan will likely continue supporting rival groups, which will result in a proxy war. Acled
• [New] Both the SAF and the RSF are using food as a weapon of war, blocking aid deliveries, starving the civilian population and disrupting farming activities, increasing significantly the risk of a looming famine. European Union Agency for Asylum
• [New] Of the two, the SAF could be more vulnerable to weapons disruptions, as it relies much more on formalized and bulky maritime delivery channels from regional allies through the Red Sea and Port Sudan, supply channels which may be imperilled once again should the Houthis resume attacks on the Red Sea. The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy -
• [New] With the suspension of Saudi funds for Pakistani weapons, SAF could be left with a supply gap at a critical period in the dry season. The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy -
• [New] Gasoline prices surged 12.3% in April thanks to the ongoing conflict with Iran and the supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. investing.com
• [New] The US-Iran conflict may be over, but the damage to the global economy will linger. investing.com
• [New] Downside risks to growth are increasing, particularly if energy prices stay high in the wake of the Iran war. Fortune
• [New] The main lesson from the U.S. threat picture is that terrorism risk is still mostly a small actor problem, but with very different ideological pathways and target sets. BS-W
• [New] First person view drones have proven to be a low-cost, lethal, and widely deployable weapon across Ukraine, Lebanon and other active theaters, and are now a standard threat on the modern battlefield. Stock Titan
• [New] At first glance, Tehran's retaliation for Israeli attacks in Lebanon might seem like a reckless act that risks rekindling a devastating regional war. Counter Extremism Project
• [New] Inflation jumped when the Iran conflict broke out and is expected to rise further due to the knock-on effects of higher oil prices. BBC News
• [New] Fears remain that a renewed conflict could put pressure on energy supplies, reignite inflation concerns, and create volatility across global markets. investing.com
• [New] J.P. Morgan Private Bank argues that stocks are rebounding because investors are focusing more on earnings resilience than unresolved Iran conflict risk. The Idea Farm
• [New] With UK CPI inflation falling more sharply than expected in April, the June decision is receiving greater attention than any since the Middle East conflict disrupted the expected rate-cutting path in early 2026. BritSavvy
• [New] As NATO's proxy war against Russia in Ukraine enters its fifth year, the strikes on Russia's second-largest city, St. Petersburg, and Germany's announcement that it will produce weapons systems with a range of 1,500 kilometers together with Ukraine are increasing the risk of a nuclear conflict. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] Although global risks were elevated because of the Iran war, the outlook for global growth in 2026 remained positive and the terms of trade continue to be favourable for the Peruvian economy. Central Banking

Last updated: 23 June 2026