Our Scans · Russia · Weekly Summary

WHAT'S NEXT?: Russia is becoming an independent geopolitical actor. Russia will seek to maintain the world's strategic balance of power. A resurgent Russia is likely to continue to stir up trouble across much of Central and East Europe and the Middle East. It remains to be seen whether a rapprochement is possible with the U.S. And, Russia's economy is expected to return to modest growth in late 2016 and 2017, further strengthening its hand.

• [New] Russia attacked Ukraine overnight with missiles and strike drones, triggering air raid alerts across several regions amid the threat of ballistic missile strikes. Rubryka
• [New] A rise in Russian attacks on Ukrainian seaports and vessels could cut monthly grain shipments by as much as a third and have left terminal operators facing mounting losses they say they cannot cover alone. Pro Farmer
• [New] Additional risks include the potential expansion of Russian attacks into NATO Europe, and heightened China-Taiwan tension. Office of the New York City Comptroller Mark Levine
• [New] The Russian Ministry of Defense demonstrated a new battle management information system for Russian forces operating in Ukraine that Russia will likely deploy with international exercise partners during Russia's Center 2026 strategic command-and-staff exercise in September. Critical Threats
• [New] If Russia develops its own medium-range strike drones, it will be a disaster for us, the senior official warned. Militarnyi
• [New] Ukraine plans to request an additional $20 billion from its allies to sustain long-range strikes against Russia and preserve its advantage in medium-range attack drones, citing a senior Ukrainian Defense Ministry official. Militarnyi
• [New] Most European nations, virtually all European nations facing the threat of Russia have decided that a much stronger Germany is a very good thing. AlbertMohler.com
• [New] Russian services are beginning to restrict access via Gmail: Avito (a national classifieds website and app) is warning users that they are no longer permitted to use foreign services for authentication. L'Europeista
• [New] Lee's G7 diplomacy gives Seoul a wider platform to coordinate on Iran, Ukraine, AI, financial risk, and development aid, but the EU steel restrictions and Russia-linked oil flows show that global coordination also brings trade and sanctions-management costs. Fault Lines
• [New] ISW continues to assess that Putin is employing massive strike packages against Kiev City in an effort to break Ukraine's will to fight as well as to disguise his weakness, particularly his inability to secure Russian territory, including Russia's capital, from Ukraine's deep strikes. X (formerly Twitter)
• [New] Ukrainian defensive adaptation is currently lagging the pace of Russian escalation on the jet-drone threat specifically. Drone Warfare
• [New] The EU plans to eliminate the import of all Russian gas by the end of 2027. Mirage News
• [New] China's dominance in critical minerals, such as rare earth elements, and Russia's significant role in European gas supplies have highlighted vulnerabilities in global supply chains. GOV.UK
• [New] The Kremlin will soon face a fundamental choice over whether to radically escalate its demands on Russia's economy and society or to scale back its war aims. CNN
• [New] The Intelligence Community previously warned that a US-funded biolab in Ukraine likely housed dangerous pathogens and remained vulnerable to longstanding threats of Russian attack, seizure, or damage. Medium
• [New] Engineers initially focused on speed; Sting had a different shape and could reach over 200 mph - significantly faster than Russia's propeller-driven Geran-2 drone (a top speed of 72 mph) and roughly as fast as its first jet-powered variant, the Geran-3. Business Insider
• [New] As NATO's proxy war against Russia in Ukraine enters its fifth year, the strikes on Russia's second-largest city, St. Petersburg, and Germany's announcement that it will produce weapons systems with a range of 1,500 kilometers together with Ukraine are increasing the risk of a nuclear conflict. World Socialist Web Site
• [New] The risk scenario involves an incident - a collision of naval vessels, a disputed resource development, a subsea cable sabotage - that triggers a rapid escalation between Russian and NATO forces in Arctic waters. Energy Central
• [New] The expected cuts - which would affect NATO's reconnaissance and long-range strike capacity - and further US disengagement have forced NATO to weigh alternative plans for Europe's defence in the event of a Russian attack. Al Jazeera
• [New] The Russian military could attempt to sever the Suwalki Gap from Kaliningrad and Belarus to isolate the Baltic states before NATO could respond. Al Jazeera
• [New] Recent incidents heighten anxieties that hybrid warfare tactics could trigger military confrontation with Russia. Al Jazeera
• [New] L3Harris developed and invested in VAMPIRE at the beginning of the war in Ukraine to provide a low-cost solution to eliminate Russian drone threats. L3Harris Fast. Forward.
• [New] An overall determination to prevent Russian collapse does not mean Beijing will offer every possible form of support or sacrifice its own economic priorities. CEPA

Last updated: 20 June 2026