Global Scans · Capitalism · Weekly Summary

• The renewed trade war with the US may distract from what is expected to be a robust 3.4% q/q SAAR reading for Q2 GDP, reversing the technical recession in Q4 and Q1 (-0.1% 0, which many expect to be 'revised away', with monthly GDP seen at 0.2% m/m. ADMISI
• The biggest single risk to the global outlook is a U.S. recession, which Deverell believes would most likely be triggered by a peaking and subsequent pullback in tech investment. ROGER MONTGOMERY
• If the current energy shock persists, Germany and Italy could slip into technical recession by Q4 2026. LongYield
• A global recession scenario could reduce non-compliance platform investment by 25% -35% in an 18-24 month window. evolvancemarketresearch.com
• In the mild recession scenario, total real estate sales are lower by $1.30 billion in FY 2025, $10.86 billion in FY 2026, $6.26 billion in FY 2027, $2.88 billion in FY 2028 and $3.25 billion in FY 2029. Office of the New York City Comptroller Mark Levine
• The WEF regional risk survey identifies economic recession, unemployment, and inflation as the top three risk concerns across ASEAN. KBA13 INSIGHT
• Oil prices spiked from $75 to over $130 per barrel within 48 hours, triggering fears of global economic recession. OpenWar
• Economists at the Atlanta Fed are estimating that GDP will expand another 4% over the third quarter, indicating the US is far from tipping into a technical recession. Business Insider
• The UK will fall into recession towards the end of the year as energy costs soar. The Council of Industry
• The biggest impact of the Iran War may not be that crude oil at $120 per barrel might tip the global economy into a recession; rather, it is more likely to drive even faster adoption of cheaper, greener energy sources. The Big Picture
• The oil price shock due to the Iran war will take a toll on the German economy but is unlikely to trigger a recession. Global Banking & Finance Review
• Prolonged disruptions could lead to a broader global slowdown, with recession risks increasing if conditions worsen. STL.News
• Bloomberg economic surveys showed a raised U.S. GDP forecast for 2027 to 2.1%, a reduced probability of recession in China alongside lower GDP growth expectations, and expectations of a June rate hike in Western Europe. WatchGold
• Investors fearing an extended Middle East conflict that invites inflation and, possibly, recession tend to trim their more volatile assets, including bitcoin and ethereum. Yahoo Finance

Last updated: 01 November 2026