Trend Alert: The Cold War on Peak Oil?
David Taylor, Strategic Futures Analyst, Collaborative Connections
Russia's invasion of Georgia and its subsequent recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, has led to accusations that it is resurrecting the spirit of the Cold War. But in a region where international relations are as flammable as the oil and gas that it produces, what would a Cold War mean for ‘Peak Oil’?
What is changing?
Russia has been, and remains, the economic and military powerhouse of the Caucasus region. Through its action in Georgia though, it has emphatically reduced the West's influence in the former Soviet region, created another crack in the theory of a largely unipolar world and possibly created a new political driver for technological change.
Why is this Important?
According to Stephen Aguilar-Milan, the continued resurgence of Russia in many respects depends upon how tight the energy markets remain. Indeed, Russian foreign policy has been more board-room than gun-barrel. Gazprom, Russia's energy giant, already has long-term supply contracts with most European countries, including France, Germany, Italy and Austria and Gazprom has already announced intentions to supply 20% of the UK's gas by 2015. By ‘discouraging’ the competition, Russia has secured its economic - and simultaneously - its political influence at a global level. But the question as to whether softening energy markets would lead to a weaker Russia is a pertinent one.
Using this Trend Alert: A six-step guide
We aim to alert you to upcoming changes from which you can explore issues of interest further. We offer a hand-picked selection of resources, reports and publications from commercial organisations, government agencies, NGOs, think-tanks and other public interest organizations.
Every week our members add many new insights to Shaping Tomorrow. By viewing the new insights you can anticipate how tomorrow will be different for you and your organisation. You can also add insights to create a personal database of emerging change.
Shaping Tomorrow subscribers can also access unique discovery analyses such as 360 degree views of emerging issues, timelines, tag clouds, latest citations, sources and country impacts. They also have access to special collections including industry analysis, regional potential and social change, plus an advanced search facility.
Subscription costs just 95 British Pounds (+17.5% tax for those based in the European Union), or $189 in the United States. You can pay using one of many credit cards directly at our web site.
Why put yourself at a disadvantage to our 13,853 subscribers and your competition when you can join today; you won't find a more comprehensive service at such low cost anywhere!
NIng recommends the Foresight Network
For those with an entrepreneurial spirit or seeking business-minded advice for the future, The Foresight Network opens the floodgates for collaborative interactions and fosters an environment to ask all the right questions.
Members use forums to consider challenging issues, leave comments and offer professional advice between one another in topics ranging from "Pandemic flu implications for broadband" to "Branding in the 21st Century". Likewise, blog posts across the network stream an up-to-date mash-up of what’s really on the minds of Foresighters.
Narrow-in on more than 1,500 members and find those with similar professional goals by joining many of industry-specific groups. You’ll connect with members that share your passion for learning at the "Foresight Education & Research Network", find other Web 2.0 creative strategists in "Media and Technology in a visual world" and learn what’s on the metropolitan horizons at the "Urban Futures Group".
Exercise your forward-thinking skills at The Foresight Network and help answer the question: "What’s next?" You’ll be making tomorrow brighter.
New to managing change or looking for a refresher? Our on-line guide is here to help you.