Cue: the great escape?

With continuing gloomy economic news, discussions of consumers and business losing confidence, and forecasts that the recession will be longer and deeper than previously expected, we may be in for a boom in escapism - with portions of nostalgia, tradition and simplicity on the side.

During the Depression of the 1930s, Hollywood supplied a stream of escapist, romantic, often glamorous movies to transport people away from the pressures of the day. We may see a similar move from the film industry now, indeed some would identify the new film Australia, starring Nicole Kidman, as part of that move.

However, the bigger escape may be online, to virtual worlds, games, highways and byways.

• What's Changing?
• Why is this Important?
• Signal Strength Analysis

Author
Sheila Moorcroft, Research Director, Shaping Tomorrow

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A Guide To Practical Foresight - 2. Learning From the Past

This second week of a year long series of short pieces on using Practical Foresight competitive advantage focuses on:

What can we learn from the past to help us understand the future?

Examining history can teach us much about the future.
history often repeats itself or shows how the future evolved in similar circumstances to today's world.

history too is littered with tipping points, surprises, shocks and human advances that we can learn from.

history is as much unknowable as what we perceive is the reality of today or what the future holds.

Historic surprise has manifested itself in many situations including:

• the thought that everything that could be invented had been invented at the end of the 19th century
• IBM's prediction that the world would need only 7 computers to run its affairs
• Western Union predicting that "the telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication" in 1876
  

We now know these predictions and ideas were extraordinarily fanciful. The 20th century, far from being benign, saw man fly both terrestrially and in space, discover nuclear energy, design personal vehicles for mass human transporation, link almost everyone through global telecommunication systems and significantly improve both health and longevity. These discoveries completely changed the world. And, of course "the war to end all wars" was followed by the Second World War and hundreds more since. Nothing is forever and the only constant in life is change.

The same human opportunity to change the world again, for better or worse, in this century presents itself through advances in robotics, remote sensoring, artificial intelligence, anti-ageing, sustainable practices and energy transformation etc. Yet new threats present clear and present danger such as financial chaos, climate change, pandemics, natural resource shortages, new wars and as yet new unforeseen wildcards.

Examining history shows us that the pace and nature of change is accelerating more rapidly than ever before. The outcome of this acceleration has been to make the world increasingly more complex and uncertain. We can expect even greater complexity and uncertainty as ever more sophistated response to improving the human condition and solving today's issues creates new surprises tomorrow.

Two driving forces have been instrumental in accelerating change:

• Globalisation: markets have progressively moved from local to national, to international, to multi-national to truly global and soon to be virtualised systems. This expansion has lead to increasing sophistication, rapid product and service diffusion and innovation and learning on a global scale.
  
  
• Techological advancement: The technological revolution has ben a key driver of this diffusion and in making the world a far smaller place through dramatic improvements in transportation and the arrival of near-instant communication.
  

Knowing the future is impossible – yet essential, not least in business. The right decisions offer huge opportunities., the wrong ones, huge risks. Watching the unfolding effect of these and other key driving forces is therefore an essential element of spotting emerging opportunities and threats. Historical analysis of how an issue has developed and considering this in the context of parallels and precedents is an essential part of practical foresight.

Two counterpoint maxims for you to consider:

• "Those who drive their car through the rear-view mirror will never see the future"
• "Those who don't read history are doomed to re-live it!"

A good futurist is therefore most likely a good historian too through knowing the potential outcomes of the past, applying these to emerging issues and considering potential futures in equal measure.

Further references: A Brief History of the Future