The Asian Century is a megatrend that refers to the outlook for Asia’s emerging markets to continue growing for the next 30 years just as they have over the past 30 years. Asia’s economy is set to grow to the point that geopolitics will be redefined before mid-century, and parts of Asia are progressing more rapidly than previously expected.
Below is a brief excerpt featuring 9 of the 83 Indicators featured in our latest Gist, Asian Acceleration:
Economic
Although the US is set to remain the primary engine of global growth for a few decades, the rise of Asia will disrupt Western organizations while continuing to offer opportunities for investment.
- In one scenario, Asia's GDP (at market exchange rates) increases from $17 trillion in 2010 to $174 trillion in 2050, or half of global GDP, similar to its share of the global population. (Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century)
- Asia's middle class is forecast to triple to 1.7 billion by 2020, and by 2030, Asia will be the home of 3 billion middle class people - 10 times more than North America and 5 times more than Europe at that time. (The rise of the global middle class)
- The most dramatic jump in workforce demands over the next 5-10 years, will be in emerging Asia, where the need for new employees will rise 22%, but demand for talent in Western Europe is projected to grow a rather modest 3.5%. (Global Talent 2021)
- By 2025, more than half of the world's consuming class will live within a five-hour flight of Myanmar. (Three paths to sustained economic growth in Southeast Asia)
- In the twenty-first century it will be urban Asia whose consumption propels world economic growth. (China's investment in infrastructure is exactly what made Alibaba's IPO possible)
- Asia's march to prosperity will be led by seven economies: China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and Malaysia. (Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century)
- China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia will take on greater significance in the global economy by 2025. (Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges)
- China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico and Indonesia will all have larger economies than any European Union country by 2050. (Our Global Future: the business vision for a reformed EU)
- World Bank modeling suggests that together China and India will serve as nearly twice the engine for growth as of the United States and the euro zone combined by 2025. (Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds)
Asia is a very broad and complex topic, but our Gist, Asian Acceleration, simplifies the issues to allow strategy teams, executives, and individuals to quickly assess the expected future of the region. The Gist’s 83 Indicators are taken from 60 sources, and the introduction and analysis have both been kept short. In the Introduction, we explore how the Asian Century continues to progress and potentially accelerate. In the analysis, we review four key concerns to consider for building an agile strategy respective of uncertainty and uncovering potential opportunities and risks. Each of the Indicators are numbered for convenient referencing and followed by their respective sources to access further information quickly.
The Gist is particularly useful for strategy teams as a brief overview of Asia’s future from which they can decide how to address further research or immediate application. Asian Acceleration is also a great introduction for novices to the complexities of Asia's rise, and it functions as a quick reference for those readers who are well versed in the topic.